Frightened-Pear — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$174

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

53.6%

Resolved (90d)

343

Trades (90d)

945

1,407 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.27K

$1.78K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-06

last 11-03 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 32% -$137

Other

28% 23% -$46

Sports

4% 12% -$14

Politics

2% 10% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 206 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	Yes		+8	$2	10¢	$1	-$1	10-31 19:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	9	$29	44	44	+0	Down	+$9	10-27 06:44
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2026-08-01?	3	$28	33	33	+0	Yes	+$26	08-01 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	6	$26	23	23	+0	Down	+$16	10-23 16:48
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	17	$25	52	23	+29	Down	+$5	11-03 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	9	$24	26	26	+0	Down	+$10	10-23 18:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	5	$23	32	32	+0	Up	+$17	10-24 19:04
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	12	$22	27	22	+5	Up	+$8	11-03 13:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	7	$20	70	69	+1	Up	+$2	10-27 07:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 09:05 UTC	5	$19	22	22	+0	Down	+$13	08-29 09:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	6	$17	20	20	+0	Up	+$9	10-23 17:19
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	16	$16	50	0	+50	Down	-$16	11-03 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	6	$15	50	50	+0	Up	+$13	05-06 14:10
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	9	$14	22	10	+12	Up	+$2	11-03 13:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	7	$13	22	22	+0	Down	+$5	05-08 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	8	$13	30	23	+8	Up	+$1	10-24 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	7	$13	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	10-27 06:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 12:05 UTC	4	$13	13	13	+0	Down	+$9	08-29 12:08
Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	10	$12	18	18	+0	Up	+$4	11-02 13:15
Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	3	$12	44	8	+36	Up	-$8	11-02 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	5	$11	11	11	+0	Down	+$3	10-27 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	5	$11	11	11	+0	Down	+$5	08-29 14:28
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	10	$11	41	10	+31	Up	-$1	11-03 13:41
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17?	2	$11	10	10	+0	Yes	+$9	05-17 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	7	$11	52	11	+41	Up	-$1	10-24 16:39
Gold Up or Down - October 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	8	$11	19	17	+2	Up	+$3	10-28 09:27
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$11	535	395	+140	No	+$1	05-18 11:46
Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	7	$11	11	11	+0	Down	+$3	11-02 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	10	$10	45	0	+45	Up	-$10	10-27 06:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	8	$9	11	11	+0	Up	+$3	05-08 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	6	$9	26	21	+6	Down	+$1	10-27 07:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 14:04:16	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc43544…
11-03 14:04:13	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x299dd5…
11-03 14:04:12	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xef31aa…
11-03 14:04:12	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x364869…
11-03 14:04:12	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x25132e…
11-03 14:04:10	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe9d0a4…
11-03 14:04:10	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb83763…
11-03 14:04:10	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3b8696…
11-03 14:03:45	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x110701…
11-03 14:03:43	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa7864d…
11-03 14:03:10	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x32f918…
11-03 14:03:09	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb24a25…
11-03 14:03:07	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xfdfcb6…
11-03 14:02:13	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x951eed…
11-03 14:00:27	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc99614…
11-03 14:00:22	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x345398…
11-03 13:59:40	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xf79396…
11-03 13:59:31	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xa682f6…
11-03 13:58:54	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x53f303…
11-03 13:58:45	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x156f3b…
11-03 13:58:22	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x42abdb…
11-03 13:57:48	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf93e73…
11-03 13:57:28	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x0826b7…
11-03 13:56:28	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xcfce42…
11-03 13:56:22	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcb23ac…
11-03 13:53:48	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x791dfe…
11-03 13:51:43	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x350053…
11-03 13:50:33	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x5dc030…
11-03 13:48:10	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb4e429…
11-03 13:48:09	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd1e88b…
11-03 13:46:43	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x5cf88d…
11-03 13:46:21	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x0c0711…
11-03 13:45:43	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6b73d5…
11-03 13:41:37	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5a9be1…
11-03 13:40:33	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4a7211…
11-03 13:38:22	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x697217…
11-03 13:35:43	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xdc1b7d…
11-03 13:35:12	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	52¢	$1	0x7cb418…
11-03 13:34:43	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x179a1e…
11-03 13:31:10	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4592d6…
11-03 13:31:04	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4d7ab7…
11-03 13:31:01	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x67d9ea…
11-03 13:31:01	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x169c14…
11-03 13:27:37	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xed711b…
11-03 13:26:54	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x305fc4…
11-03 13:26:52	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x311f34…
11-03 13:26:37	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x310d05…
11-03 13:26:33	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xfd6e07…
11-03 13:26:30	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xdbca18…
11-03 13:18:54	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x2c6d80…
11-03 13:16:34	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe1f1fd…
11-03 13:16:31	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5634a9…
11-03 13:16:30	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb16178…
11-03 13:15:46	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfe7f52…
11-03 13:15:46	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2bd8ab…
11-03 13:10:58	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x4574d4…
11-03 13:08:18	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x7263d1…
11-03 13:07:15	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xaaccdc…
11-03 13:06:42	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0xad8967…
11-03 13:06:27	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$2	0xd23be3…
11-03 13:03:00	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x13df23…
11-03 13:00:45	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x3154e9…
11-03 13:00:28	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x17f499…
11-03 13:00:27	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0beb4f…
11-03 12:51:54	Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xa562a3…
11-02 13:36:24	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xa1f127…
11-02 13:34:22	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xe0a640…
11-02 13:33:06	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xda0ded…
11-02 13:23:03	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0x383400…
11-02 13:21:57	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x755722…
11-02 13:15:39	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x050493…
11-02 13:14:48	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xba4eb4…
11-02 13:14:19	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x932d57…
11-02 13:13:31	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x365005…
11-02 13:13:12	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdacd25…
11-02 13:11:24	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x64fb48…
11-02 13:11:13	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x60aab0…
11-02 13:06:46	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xd7d91e…
11-02 13:04:51	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0xa82d59…
11-02 13:03:19	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe87552…
11-02 12:59:16	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0xc618e0…
11-02 12:55:13	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x739097…
11-02 12:53:45	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6b542c…
11-02 12:53:31	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x182e00…
11-02 12:48:10	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x002826…
11-02 12:46:27	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x096c14…
11-02 12:46:04	Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x24883c…
10-31 20:04:43	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0xbe0e14…
10-31 19:25:45	Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x97ce46…
10-31 19:23:16	Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	2	28¢	$0	0x3aa3ed…
10-31 19:22:58	Will AZ win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$1	0x9e8237…
10-31 19:21:21	LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	LOS	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0x0e4e2b…
10-31 19:17:27	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdd5b3b…
10-31 19:14:54	Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0xbd0559…
10-31 19:12:54	Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xd04921…
10-31 18:47:48	Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa0d612…
10-31 18:47:24	Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf7f444…
10-31 18:45:57	Will AZ win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xce5c37…
10-31 18:45:07	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x24c38e…
10-31 18:44:51	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdd8724…