Tragic-Remark — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.6%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$5.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 09-07 15:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

40% 30% -$8

Politics

31% 32% -$1

Sports

15% 33% -$1

Crypto

12% 45% $0

Tech

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russian strike on a nato member by march 31	6	$204	105	105	+0	No	$0	02-18 13:47
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	4	$144	73	73	+0	No	+$0	01-28 14:08
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$136	68	68	+0	No	$0	03-09 12:19
trump out as president by march 31	4	$135	69	69	+0	No	$0	03-27 14:49
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$133	67	67	+0	No	$0	04-10 12:17
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$109	55	55	+0	open	—	05-04 16:15
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	2	$74	37	37	+0	No	$0	01-06 14:15
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$73	38	38	+0	No	-$1	01-07 14:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	05-21 15:03
Human moon landing in 2026?	2	$72	37	37	+0	open	—	05-18 23:16
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	$0	05-20 23:56
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	2	$72	37	37	-0	open	—	05-20 00:09
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	3	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	01-11 13:31
will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-12 14:07
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	01-13 12:09
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-14 11:54
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-24 15:03
will solana reach 210 in january 2026	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-18 14:35
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$71	36	36	+0	Yes	-$1	05-22 17:54
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	01-20 15:22
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	2	$70	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-21 11:42
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-23 14:39
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-26 14:24
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	05-24 13:46
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	2	$69	37	37	+0	Yes	-$1	02-01 14:21
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-28 15:08
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$69	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-29 14:01
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	02-27 15:01
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	03-04 12:07
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	02-28 12:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 15:43:21	Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x5fc6f3…
06-14 14:45:55	Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x2e8cf6…
06-14 14:39:43	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x0510a4…
06-12 04:58:48	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x2e360a…
06-12 04:53:15	Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x9f031b…
06-10 13:28:24	Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x89dae0…
06-10 13:24:57	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xb6eb6d…
06-09 01:38:52	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x9ec95a…
06-09 01:36:52	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x586696…
06-03 14:03:13	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xc9df45…
06-03 13:31:05	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x9bb217…
06-02 11:38:13	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xfc5f03…
06-02 11:35:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x029dc4…
06-01 14:40:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x6ec743…
06-01 14:37:05	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xb6ba13…
05-31 00:16:51	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xd5c6fe…
05-31 00:14:52	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x27239e…
05-29 15:57:35	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x0c28e2…
05-29 14:01:46	Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0xcb3528…
05-28 15:12:50	Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0x442329…
05-28 15:08:36	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x34faa3…
05-26 14:30:05	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x507111…
05-26 14:24:22	Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x8c7a4f…
05-24 13:51:14	Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x42855e…
05-24 13:46:48	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xdb45f9…
05-23 14:45:07	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x947c7d…
05-23 14:39:12	Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x8ed761…
05-22 18:01:06	Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x192bea…
05-22 17:54:08	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0x09c673…
05-21 15:15:48	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x734cb4…
05-21 15:03:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xe668ec…
05-21 00:00:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x185857…
05-20 23:56:43	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x31ed32…
05-20 00:12:19	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x77bc83…
05-20 00:09:34	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0x5df9c8…
05-18 23:17:43	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0x58883a…
05-18 23:16:16	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0xfb8a01…
05-18 00:03:51	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x07eaba…
05-15 00:10:27	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xa1954c…
05-14 23:07:32	Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xbe2b01…
05-13 00:33:12	Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x12aa2b…
05-13 00:31:34	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x8d31ec…
05-12 00:11:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x19121e…
05-12 00:09:28	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x87e258…
05-10 14:17:29	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd21c04…
05-10 13:56:13	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x131826…
05-08 15:26:22	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xb2c60f…
05-08 15:23:52	Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x466103…
05-07 15:11:26	Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x9a46bd…
05-07 15:08:22	Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xed304e…
05-05 14:19:36	Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x292a3b…
05-05 13:45:38	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x427574…
05-04 16:19:46	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xed7338…
05-04 16:15:32	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x1ef8e5…
05-04 00:40:56	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xc299df…
05-04 00:38:56	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$27	0xab67f4…
05-02 15:35:48	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0x755444…
05-02 15:30:14	Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xf3f9c8…
05-01 16:07:50	Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x269801…
05-01 16:02:50	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xb03a19…
04-29 12:23:54	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xa8d80e…
04-29 12:20:44	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x77ad89…
04-28 15:20:30	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x6f4b08…
04-28 15:17:18	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xb5b33a…
04-27 14:40:40	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x294e38…
04-26 15:18:12	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xaecc39…
04-25 15:39:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x76444a…
04-23 14:06:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x30f9dc…
04-23 13:20:52	Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?	No	SELL	33	86¢	$28	0xd39d19…
04-21 15:11:12	Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x20733c…
04-21 15:06:48	Will Google dip to $220 in April?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x522142…
04-19 00:37:34	Will Google dip to $220 in April?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xeb2700…
04-16 13:39:38	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xe0164c…
04-15 13:06:40	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xf167a6…
04-15 13:04:34	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x1d18da…
04-13 12:17:45	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x6ec307…
04-13 12:12:39	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x524fc2…
04-10 12:19:49	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x25e346…
04-10 12:17:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xbae473…
04-09 14:08:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x9f608d…
03-31 12:30:31	amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xf706d5…
03-30 13:58:05	amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xdaa014…
03-30 13:53:17	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0x38c161…
03-29 10:29:14	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0xb397b4…
03-29 10:27:40	will trump visit greenland by march 31	No	SELL	34	100¢	$33	0xefe236…
03-27 14:50:47	will trump visit greenland by march 31	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xbdb997…
03-27 14:49:21	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	34	100¢	$33	0x9f12ea…
03-26 13:41:51	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x5f941f…
03-26 13:28:25	will trump cut off trade with spain	No	SELL	34	100¢	$33	0xf40698…
03-25 14:55:47	will trump cut off trade with spain	No	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0xc2c67b…
03-25 14:53:41	will jean michel aulas win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x714952…
03-23 13:58:07	will jean michel aulas win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x287dba…
03-23 13:54:11	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0xae8aef…
03-22 14:31:27	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x4e602b…
03-20 15:10:35	will akron win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x2727e1…
03-20 14:39:59	will the momentum movement momentum win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x701201…
03-19 13:23:39	will the momentum movement momentum win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x84b3b6…
03-18 11:40:03	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x9f2c6e…
03-16 14:13:23	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x628ad6…
03-15 12:45:07	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xdd8d74…