Putrid-Refund — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$228

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

64.4%

Resolved

6,797

Trades

7,725

lifetime

Volume

$19.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$45

6 positions

First seen

2026-05-28

last 10-24 15:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 59% -$217

Other

8% 78% -$4

Tech

2% 0% -$1

Politics

1% 0% $0

Sports

1% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 286 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	+20	$16	82¢	$16	+$0	10-22 13:00
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+20	$16	80¢	$16	+$0	10-21 03:46
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	+20	$5	20¢	$4	$0	10-21 03:46
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	+20	$4	18¢	$4	$0	10-22 13:00
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	56¢	$3	+$0	10-22 11:03
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	+5	$3	44¢	$2	-$1	10-23 08:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	4	$41	80	0	+80	open	—	10-23 10:33
Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?	4	$41	80	0	+80	No	-$1	10-23 21:52
ilhan omar denaturalization case filed by december 31 2026	4	$40	80	0	+80	open	—	10-15 22:18
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	4	$40	80	0	+80	open	—	10-23 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	2	$40	45	0	+45	Down	-$15	09-01 17:04
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	6	$40	80	0	+80	open	—	10-24 12:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	2	$34	38	0	+38	Up	-$14	09-01 19:14
Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	10-23 08:10
Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	7	$31	60	0	+60	open	—	10-24 06:44
Will Harry Kane score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	3	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-21 21:20
Will Salesforce Q3 current RPO growth (CC) be between 15% and 16%?	6	$30	60	0	+60	open	—	10-20 20:25
Will Justin Herbert have 3,099.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	2	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	10-21 02:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	2	$29	23	23	+0	Down	+$0	06-05 06:18
Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	5	$28	56	0	+56	open	—	10-24 08:00
GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	5	$28	56	0	+56	open	—	10-23 14:43
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	2	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	10-22 19:49
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by December 31?	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	10-22 03:50
Will Caleb Williams have 18.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	10-24 00:09
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	5	$27	24	20	+4	open	—	10-24 12:31
Will Xtreme Gaming make a Dota 2 roster change before 2027?	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	10-22 10:06
Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	2	$25	20	20	+0	No	-$3	10-24 01:35
Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	3	$25	28	0	+28	Down	-$10	09-02 06:04
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-24 06:04
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-23 07:42
Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?	2	$22	20	20	+0	open	—	10-22 21:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	3	$22	25	0	+25	Down	-$22	09-05 00:44
Will Dominik Greif (Lyon) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	4	$22	43	3	+40	open	—	10-16 16:05
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	4	$22	42	2	+40	open	—	10-23 00:43
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	2	$21	40	0	+40	open	—	10-23 13:03
Will Davante Adams have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	3	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	10-24 05:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 15:09:30	Will Garrett Wilson have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x52140a…
10-24 12:37:56	Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x1cfb6d…
10-24 12:31:27	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x936f84…
10-24 12:31:27	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x456f07…
10-24 12:12:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x19d856…
10-24 12:11:02	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	19	39¢	$7	0x92a560…
10-24 12:11:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x6ee4e4…
10-24 12:11:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x021b6e…
10-24 11:33:30	Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x16084c…
10-24 10:38:48	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x587e7e…
10-24 10:38:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xf5b93f…
10-24 10:22:23	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xe69425…
10-24 10:12:23	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x388c85…
10-24 09:55:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	No	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0x30a509…
10-24 09:54:32	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x936dd5…
10-24 09:54:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xf7f36d…
10-24 09:54:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x61d70f…
10-24 09:54:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe30392…
10-24 09:54:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x573385…
10-24 09:54:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x3b020f…
10-24 09:47:15	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xdd7154…
10-24 09:47:15	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x030cb0…
10-24 08:00:12	Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xb856e3…
10-24 08:00:12	Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x25ee53…
10-24 06:44:47	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xe7cf65…
10-24 06:44:47	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xe27806…
10-24 06:09:56	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x956952…
10-24 06:04:11	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x9f3c5b…
10-24 05:53:33	Will Davante Adams have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x75ffeb…
10-24 05:53:32	Will Davante Adams have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0xf05087…
10-24 05:39:54	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x984419…
10-24 04:39:24	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x6947f5…
10-24 04:38:26	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd563d9…
10-24 04:38:24	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x43e140…
10-24 04:19:41	Will Davante Adams have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x0c2de5…
10-24 04:10:03	Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xa49f3d…
10-24 04:10:02	Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x6f0164…
10-24 03:55:12	Will Puka Nacua have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0xc5987d…
10-24 03:54:12	Will Puka Nacua have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xf2a58f…
10-24 03:35:14	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x910273…
10-24 03:19:30	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xe25800…
10-24 03:06:05	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x974ae6…
10-24 03:02:15	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x3f3a58…
10-24 03:01:39	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xaeaef2…
10-24 02:52:32	Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0xf8fb0b…
10-24 02:51:32	Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0xed7fef…
10-24 02:51:32	Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x91a9e2…
10-24 02:49:32	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0xff9d64…
10-24 02:30:41	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x620bcc…
10-24 02:29:45	Will DJ Snake attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xfe14dc…
10-24 02:19:45	Will DJ Snake attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x2085a9…
10-24 01:35:09	Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xcb0b5a…
10-24 00:57:53	will umich consumer sentiment be between 49pt0 and 51pt9 in november 2026	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x70258c…
10-24 00:57:51	will umich consumer sentiment be between 49pt0 and 51pt9 in november 2026	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xcdf3d7…
10-24 00:35:09	Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7476fc…
10-24 00:09:27	Will Caleb Williams have 18.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x24c823…
10-23 23:05:42	Will Caleb Williams have 18.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7c70f2…
10-23 23:00:03	Will Justin Jefferson have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x210f2e…
10-23 22:59:03	Will Justin Jefferson have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xa7a903…
10-23 22:59:03	Will Justin Jefferson have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x5b363f…
10-23 21:52:44	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xa0ea72…
10-23 21:42:42	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x6b2c82…
10-23 15:31:35	Will the Boston Bruins record 90+ points?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xa0a9f9…
10-23 14:43:06	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0xaf8b51…
10-23 14:41:59	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xc3e725…
10-23 14:41:59	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x419b01…
10-23 14:01:51	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xe41f19…
10-23 14:01:50	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x6ebc21…
10-23 13:03:03	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xfc2765…
10-23 12:37:41	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xc66997…
10-23 12:37:41	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x78f471…
10-23 12:23:44	Will the Boston Bruins record 90+ points?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x232bb1…
10-23 12:02:45	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x58a53b…
10-23 10:33:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xe0de13…
10-23 10:33:20	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xee8531…
10-23 10:24:45	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x655ea9…
10-23 10:24:44	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xd5c0c9…
10-23 09:41:29	Will Ben Johns win three or more Triple Crowns in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xcceff7…
10-23 09:41:29	Will Ben Johns win three or more Triple Crowns in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x3a2655…
10-23 09:03:23	Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xb05130…
10-23 09:02:23	Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xebd9d2…
10-23 09:02:23	Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xcd71c9…
10-23 08:38:05	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x7b6d7e…
10-23 08:37:05	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x438fe2…
10-23 08:10:03	Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x1e985d…
10-23 07:42:54	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xb03cae…
10-23 06:55:41	Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xe92011…
10-23 06:24:57	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xc56823…
10-23 06:24:54	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0xaa13dc…
10-23 06:23:12	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x5639e5…
10-23 06:16:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x47ec93…
10-23 06:06:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x017bb0…
10-23 05:40:24	Will Markus Ruck win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xb622ad…
10-23 04:45:26	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x9a93c4…
10-23 03:17:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x2011fe…
10-23 03:16:59	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x43fde0…
10-23 03:07:30	Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xfef74c…
10-23 03:06:30	Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x7af13c…
10-23 03:06:30	Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x04202f…
10-23 03:05:41	Will Amanda Seyfried win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x3e17c9…