Tight-Outfit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$413

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

1,815

Trades

2,909

lifetime

Volume

$7.82K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-22

last 11-07 19:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 68% -$197

Politics

10% 29% -$28

Other

10% 24% -$26

Sports

4% 9% -$159

Tech

2% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 291 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump renames ai by september 30	8	$257	305	305	+0	Yes	-$26	09-28 13:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	82	$204	0	405	-405	No	-$1	05-29 19:28
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?	47	$118	180	180	+0	No	-$4	09-26 15:44
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?	2	$107	55	55	+0	No	$0	09-26 14:11
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$106	5,000	3,500	+1,500	No	+$16	07-09 02:27
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	101	$95	56	56	+0	No	+$0	09-26 13:11
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	15	$87	101	101	+0	open	—	09-26 10:02
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1?	18	$74	57	57	+0	No	-$4	09-27 10:36
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	25	$60	0	120	-120	No	$0	05-27 16:29
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	7	$60	83	83	+0	No	-$8	09-27 14:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	21	$48	0	100	-100	Yes	-$2	06-05 22:01
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	29	$47	46	46	+0	No	$0	09-26 13:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	19	$47	0	90	-90	No	+$2	06-05 22:01
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	4	$44	45	45	+0	open	—	09-22 13:51
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$40	1,319	0	+1,319	No	-$40	07-07 23:05
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	2	$37	21	21	+0	No	$0	09-25 22:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	11	$30	0	55	-55	No	$0	05-25 19:07
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$29	604	0	+604	No	-$29	07-06 06:55
Will Augusto Cury win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$28	30	30	+0	No	-$3	09-22 19:47
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	2	$27	21	21	+0	open	—	09-22 13:51
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	3	$26	26	26	-0	No	$0	09-27 11:16
Will Alexi Giannoulias win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	5	$25	29	29	+0	open	—	09-23 03:19
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$25	1,922	0	+1,922	No	-$25	07-05 23:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	10	$25	0	50	-50	No	$0	05-29 15:27
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	13	$25	0	44	-44	No	+$0	05-27 01:24
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$24	8,000	0	+8,000	No	-$24	07-03 05:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	9	$20	0	40	-40	No	+$0	05-25 17:31
will the life of a showgirl the encore first week sales be at least 200k	2	$20	34	34	+0	No	-$2	09-27 10:29
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	1	$19	238	0	+238	No	-$19	06-18 17:41
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	3	$18	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	09-23 02:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 20:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x626caf…
11-07 20:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd77217…
11-07 20:04:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3a4366…
11-07 19:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc8498a…
11-07 19:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf9f770…
11-07 19:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf79a3b…
11-07 19:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9e9bb9…
11-07 19:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6b6a53…
11-07 18:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x872781…
11-07 18:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x14492a…
11-07 18:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3241fb…
11-07 17:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0eac75…
11-07 17:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb2d949…
11-07 17:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4a9f55…
11-07 17:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbb919b…
11-07 17:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc8f242…
11-07 16:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x965fe8…
11-07 16:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6a7aeb…
11-07 16:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x722b8c…
11-07 15:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc4ae21…
11-07 15:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x988e9b…
11-07 15:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb2d1f5…
11-07 14:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa514d1…
11-07 14:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xec11a4…
11-07 14:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4fbdd8…
11-07 14:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x86e880…
11-07 14:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xdf1975…
11-07 14:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6984d5…
11-07 14:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4d0ced…
11-07 13:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb7a6ef…
11-07 12:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3cfc5a…
11-07 12:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x63dbf8…
11-07 11:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x839976…
11-07 10:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x55a748…
11-07 10:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7a060d…
11-07 10:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2678c2…
11-07 09:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1631f9…
11-07 09:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfd1abb…
11-07 08:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd5506c…
11-07 08:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbe9655…
11-07 08:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x91231c…
11-07 08:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9da321…
11-07 08:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xaa7b5d…
11-07 07:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1add8d…
11-07 07:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x98fc61…
11-07 07:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x848bbf…
11-07 07:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x213402…
11-07 07:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf86bb9…
11-07 07:04:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x521c14…
11-07 06:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x361f74…
11-07 05:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc5b1da…
11-07 05:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbebdf2…
11-07 04:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6aeb29…
11-07 04:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd0fc3f…
11-07 04:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x894e41…
11-07 04:20:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7737ba…
11-07 04:04:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x87a2b0…
11-07 03:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa4ea13…
11-07 03:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x17f4d6…
11-07 02:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x67960f…
11-07 02:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd6c2cd…
11-07 01:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc1e526…
11-07 01:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7a906e…
11-07 00:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9fc669…
11-07 00:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe584d7…
11-07 00:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x96f20d…
11-06 23:39:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x964a2b…
11-06 23:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x284c0c…
11-06 23:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x010c0f…
11-06 23:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbe4abb…
11-06 23:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x98a89b…
11-06 23:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2b0f86…
11-06 22:34:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x965fe3…
11-06 21:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x001b7b…
11-06 21:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa88291…
11-06 21:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf26e19…
11-06 21:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x60fa23…
11-06 21:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcbef14…
11-06 20:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8660d3…
11-06 20:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x22afc3…
11-06 20:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd05f5e…
11-06 20:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8efae7…
11-06 19:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x730063…
11-06 19:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x96cbf2…
11-06 19:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x19e199…
11-06 19:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x02fbc5…
11-06 18:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbfeaa3…
11-06 18:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa04d1e…
11-06 18:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3fe467…
11-06 17:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x74248d…
11-06 16:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xae6d92…
11-06 16:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x492308…
11-06 15:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0afb56…
11-06 15:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x37eb1b…
11-06 15:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf9dc1d…
11-06 15:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3d10c9…
11-06 15:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6690eb…
11-06 14:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf27995…
11-06 14:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xda00a3…
11-06 14:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x405e90…