Realized P&L (24h)
+$188
Unrealized P&L
+$885
Hit rate
85.8%
Resolved (24h)
2
Trades (24h)
0
1,890 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$0
$33.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$7.35K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-15
last 10-27 23:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 79 days
Categories
Other
81% 27% +$2,501
Sports
9% 9% -$330
Tech
8% 6% -$556
Politics
2% 0% -$532
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Discord IPO before 2027? No -2,071 -$1,844 94¢ $-1940 -$95 10-27 23:31
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +5,480 $206 11¢ $600 +$394 10-08 21:14
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +1,344 $242 44¢ $585 +$343 09-18 13:15
Ledger IPO before 2027? No -532 -$482 96¢ $-509 -$28 09-10 19:08
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -496 -$394 96¢ $-476 -$82 07-10 06:04
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -423 -$309 95¢ $-403 -$94 06-24 21:50
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +7,393 $416 5¢ $373 -$42 10-08 21:07
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +994 $121 31¢ $310 +$189 10-08 21:01
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,128 $109 24¢ $271 +$162 09-14 22:34
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +600 $95 43¢ $258 +$163 09-14 22:39
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +850 $264 26¢ $217 -$47 09-06 20:26
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +4,680 $133 4¢ $180 +$47 10-16 06:13
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +434 $35 38¢ $167 +$132 09-14 22:37
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +860 $66 19¢ $166 +$100 10-08 21:08
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,530 $39 11¢ $163 +$124 10-08 21:06
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +703 $75 14¢ $98 +$23 10-08 21:17
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -95 -$163 97¢ $-92 +$71 06-11 21:19
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes +2,584 $341 4¢ $90 -$250 09-20 16:28
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No -81 -$80 98¢ $-80 $0 09-18 22:00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +414 $67 16¢ $68 +$1 10-20 23:04
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +775 $186 8¢ $58 -$128 09-04 20:11
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -46 -$26 97¢ $-45 -$19 06-13 06:25
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? Yes +816 $30 5¢ $44 +$15 10-08 21:10
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,625 $4 2¢ $43 +$39 09-09 21:30
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes +305 $34 13¢ $40 +$6 09-14 23:08
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +792 $143 3¢ $27 -$116 07-17 18:42
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +348 $35 8¢ $26 -$9 06-12 22:53
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes +995 $10 1¢ $9 -$1 06-17 18:54
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? Yes +998 $12 0¢ $4 -$8 06-19 04:04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,551 $8 0¢ $4 -$4 07-11 13:58