Realized P&L (30d)
+$177
Unrealized P&L
+$771
Hit rate
23.0%
Resolved (30d)
5
Trades (30d)
30
1,890 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$1.27K
$33.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$7.22K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-15
last 10-27 23:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 78 days
Categories
Other
81% 27% +$2,551
Sports
9% 9% -$330
Tech
8% 0% -$794
Politics
2% 0% -$532
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Discord IPO before 2027? No -2,071 -$1,844 94¢ $-1940 -$95 10-27 23:31
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +5,480 $206 12¢ $638 +$432 10-08 21:14
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +1,344 $242 38¢ $511 +$269 09-18 13:15
Ledger IPO before 2027? No -532 -$482 96¢ $-509 -$28 09-10 19:08
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -496 -$394 95¢ $-471 -$77 07-10 06:04
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -423 -$309 95¢ $-401 -$92 06-24 21:50
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +7,393 $416 4¢ $329 -$87 10-08 21:07
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,128 $109 25¢ $281 +$172 09-14 22:34
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +600 $95 42¢ $255 +$160 09-14 22:39
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +994 $121 22¢ $218 +$97 10-08 21:01
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +850 $264 26¢ $217 -$47 09-06 20:26
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +4,680 $133 4¢ $180 +$47 10-16 06:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,530 $39 11¢ $170 +$131 10-08 21:06
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +434 $35 34¢ $148 +$113 09-14 22:37
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +860 $66 16¢ $141 +$74 10-08 21:08
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes +2,584 $341 4¢ $116 -$224 09-20 16:28
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +703 $75 14¢ $98 +$23 10-08 21:17
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +775 $186 12¢ $97 -$89 09-04 20:11
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -95 -$163 97¢ $-92 +$71 06-11 21:19
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No -81 -$80 98¢ $-80 $0 09-18 22:00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +414 $67 18¢ $73 +$5 10-20 23:04
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +348 $35 14¢ $49 +$14 06-12 22:53
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -46 -$26 96¢ $-45 -$19 06-13 06:25
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? Yes +816 $30 5¢ $43 +$13 10-08 21:10
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes +305 $34 14¢ $43 +$9 09-14 23:08
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,625 $4 1¢ $31 +$27 09-09 21:30
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +792 $143 4¢ $28 -$114 07-17 18:42
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes +995 $10 1¢ $9 -$1 06-17 18:54
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? Yes +998 $12 0¢ $4 -$8 06-19 04:04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,551 $8 0¢ $4 -$4 07-11 13:58