Realized P&L
+$718
Unrealized P&L
+$436
Hit rate
47.2%
Resolved
190
Trades
1,890
lifetime
Volume
$33.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$6.90K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-15
last 10-27 23:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 75 days
Categories
Other
81% 27% +$2,374
Sports
9% 9% -$330
Tech
8% 0% -$794
Politics
2% 0% -$532
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Discord IPO before 2027? No -2,071 -$1,844 94¢ $-1945 -$101 10-27 23:31
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +5,480 $206 9¢ $515 +$309 10-08 21:14
Ledger IPO before 2027? No -532 -$482 96¢ $-509 -$28 09-10 19:08
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -496 -$394 96¢ $-474 -$81 07-10 06:04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +1,344 $242 32¢ $423 +$181 09-18 13:15
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -423 -$309 95¢ $-402 -$93 06-24 21:50
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +600 $95 52¢ $315 +$220 09-14 22:39
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +7,393 $416 4¢ $296 -$120 10-08 21:07
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,128 $109 25¢ $282 +$173 09-14 22:34
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +850 $264 29¢ $247 -$17 09-06 20:26
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +994 $121 19¢ $187 +$66 10-08 21:01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes +2,584 $341 6¢ $168 -$173 09-20 16:28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +860 $66 17¢ $147 +$81 10-08 21:08
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +4,680 $133 3¢ $138 +$5 10-16 06:13
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +434 $35 26¢ $115 +$80 09-14 22:37
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,625 $4 4¢ $114 +$110 09-09 21:30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,530 $39 7¢ $103 +$64 10-08 21:06
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -95 -$163 96¢ $-91 +$72 06-11 21:19
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No -81 -$80 99¢ $-80 $0 09-18 22:00
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +703 $75 11¢ $77 +$2 10-08 21:17
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +414 $67 14¢ $58 -$9 10-20 23:04
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? Yes +816 $30 6¢ $47 +$17 10-08 21:10
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -46 -$26 97¢ $-45 -$19 06-13 06:25
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +775 $186 4¢ $35 -$151 09-04 20:11
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes +305 $34 9¢ $27 -$6 09-14 23:08
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +792 $143 3¢ $26 -$117 07-17 18:42
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +348 $35 6¢ $19 -$16 06-12 22:53
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes +995 $10 1¢ $9 $0 06-17 18:54
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? Yes +998 $12 0¢ $4 -$8 06-19 04:04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,551 $8 0¢ $4 -$4 07-11 13:58