Bold-Airbus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$293

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

63.9%

Resolved

294

Trades

658

lifetime

Volume

$9.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-14 19:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

48% 41% -$106

Politics

32% 29% -$171

Sports

11% 54% -$16

Crypto

9% 40% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+106	$5	3¢	$3	-$2	10-14 19:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	14	$301	3,688	3,688	+0	No	+$38	04-29 12:23
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	7	$299	1,823	1,823	+0	No	+$88	01-30 00:37
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	9	$235	415	485	-71	No	+$22	01-07 19:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$226	2,973	164	+2,809	Yes	-$12	04-08 11:54
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	8	$222	718	718	+0	No	+$53	01-11 05:01
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$157	536	236	+300	No	-$44	03-28 09:12
spl ahl nsr 2026 01 02 total 3pt5	4	$137	98	98	+0	Over	+$37	01-02 18:02
us evacuates baghdad embassy by january 31	6	$134	1,550	1,550	+0	No	+$12	01-14 20:15
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	4	$128	447	778	-331	No	+$48	01-23 19:50
sea nap ver 2026 01 07 total 3pt5	5	$126	98	98	+0	Over	+$22	01-07 19:19
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	4	$120	77	77	+0	No	+$0	04-21 22:23
lal esp bar 2026 01 03 total 1pt5	2	$113	87	87	+0	Over	+$31	01-03 21:51
cde bfc olm 2026 01 13 total 4pt5	4	$112	75	75	+0	Over	+$22	01-13 20:28
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$105	6,341	59	+6,282	No	-$84	05-20 10:38
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	4	$105	135	135	+0	Yes	+$5	04-02 23:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$105	428	428	+0	Yes	+$6	05-08 18:07
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	3	$103	671	671	+0	open	—	05-15 08:51
spl nsr qad 2026 01 08 total 3pt5	5	$98	87	86	+1	Under	+$27	01-08 19:18
nba mil gsw 2026 01 07 total 227pt5	6	$98	68	68	+0	Over	+$25	01-08 05:03
efa cha3 cfc 2026 01 10 total 2pt5	2	$95	74	74	+0	Over	+$17	01-10 21:21
elc lei wba 2026 01 05 total 2pt5	2	$93	60	60	+0	Over	+$27	01-05 21:56
sea mil gen 2026 01 08 total 1pt5	2	$85	55	55	+0	Over	+$25	01-08 23:49
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?	2	$85	181	181	+0	No	-$15	01-14 20:15
ssc fcb rmc 2026 01 11 total 2pt5	2	$82	55	55	+0	Over	+$27	01-11 19:51
epl liv lee 2026 01 01 total 1pt5	4	$78	185	0	+185	Under	-$78	01-01 18:44
efa por1 ars 2026 01 11 total 4pt5	2	$76	77	77	+0	Over	+$36	01-11 14:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$74	121	121	+0	No	+$4	05-06 17:17
sea rom mil 2026 01 25 total 1pt5	2	$71	46	46	+0	Over	+$21	01-25 21:22
epl sun mac 2026 01 01 total 2pt5	3	$71	197	0	+197	Under	-$71	01-01 21:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$70	227	227	+0	No	+$20	01-09 00:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 19:54:39	will the us confirm that aliens exist by october 31 396	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x807d62…
10-14 19:54:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0x7e5d7b…
07-04 21:10:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	109	5¢	$5	0xf5e629…
06-20 21:19:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5edaf9…
06-20 21:19:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 21:15 UTC	Up	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0xf4f0e4…
06-20 21:17:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x53ea46…
06-20 21:16:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 21:15 UTC	Down	SELL	8	66¢	$6	0x79e7c5…
06-20 21:15:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x440667…
06-20 21:14:01	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0x11943a…
06-20 11:24:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	51¢	$8	0x8643ef…
06-14 21:18:31	ebola case in the us by june 30	Yes	SELL	87	15¢	$13	0x4a5613…
06-11 10:52:48	crint bgd2 aus3 2026 06 11 completed match	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xa0d931…
06-08 21:28:25	crint wst2 lka2 2026 06 08 completed match	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5bcc4a…
05-29 15:59:41	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0x4276cf…
05-29 15:55:01	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,841	0¢	$5	0x4dc847…
05-29 15:53:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	152	3¢	$5	0xa0e6ea…
05-29 15:45:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	SELL	75	25¢	$19	0xa54d7e…
05-29 07:52:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	571	0¢	$3	0xa4f08c…
05-28 17:25:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	571	1¢	$4	0x829b47…
05-28 14:23:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x7d10da…
05-27 23:29:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0xc23f4d…
05-22 23:22:55	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x6072f8…
05-22 14:07:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	421	2¢	$10	0x8a7ae2…
05-22 14:06:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x9d1e96…
05-21 20:13:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	70	12¢	$8	0x4597ef…
05-21 20:13:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	245	2¢	$6	0x50c626…
05-21 20:00:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	255	3¢	$7	0x39afd1…
05-21 05:15:54	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x868f49…
05-21 05:10:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	11¢	$8	0x7fed39…
05-21 05:10:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	21¢	$29	0x3f92ca…
05-21 04:56:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	70	15¢	$10	0xe97589…
05-21 04:44:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x9e0a6c…
05-21 04:43:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x57ab6d…
05-21 03:39:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	22¢	$11	0x919386…
05-21 03:36:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0x4484e0…
05-20 22:46:07	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Yes	SELL	91	8¢	$7	0xa6a1d7…
05-20 16:11:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xc40274…
05-20 16:06:26	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xaefdcc…
05-20 15:29:50	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xe77d04…
05-20 14:44:03	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	250	10¢	$26	0x429652…
05-20 10:38:43	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0xc3d7d1…
05-19 04:48:49	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	250	11¢	$27	0x9422e2…
05-18 08:28:45	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	4¢	$4	0x331116…
05-18 05:59:39	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,222	1¢	$20	0x53714a…
05-18 04:37:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	690	1¢	$5	0x29ec6c…
05-18 04:37:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	SELL	158	3¢	$4	0x039612…
05-17 15:17:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	BUY	158	3¢	$5	0x254f18…
05-16 23:05:39	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	117	5¢	$6	0x97f28a…
05-16 06:22:31	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	185	3¢	$5	0xb10e43…
05-16 06:15:59	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0x468b3f…
05-16 04:45:25	New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	5¢	$6	0x23e0b3…
05-15 19:24:45	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,333	2¢	$20	0xad547f…
05-15 19:23:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	5¢	$17	0xe62e45…
05-15 19:23:40	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	Yes	SELL	429	1¢	$5	0x42a22d…
05-15 16:55:06	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	Yes	BUY	429	1¢	$6	0xaf079c…
05-15 11:28:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	57	12¢	$7	0x24cd47…
05-15 11:20:58	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xa58fc1…
05-15 11:20:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	59	18¢	$11	0x8f78a5…
05-15 11:16:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x3057a8…
05-15 11:16:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0xbb4adf…
05-15 08:51:41	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0x66830f…
05-15 08:51:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	671	7¢	$48	0xbb20dd…
05-15 08:50:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xa09c18…
05-14 11:04:21	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	79	32¢	$25	0x6dfb98…
05-14 08:06:40	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	130	4¢	$5	0x552c12…
05-13 04:46:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	86	38¢	$33	0x2fac72…
05-12 16:08:19	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0xdb1f2b…
05-12 05:17:07	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	28¢	$22	0x039e8e…
05-11 18:39:09	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xc54ec5…
05-10 18:18:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	318	7¢	$22	0x235ae3…
05-09 06:56:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xf9b05d…
05-09 06:56:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	417	4¢	$15	0x3a58cb…
05-09 05:38:06	New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	8¢	$10	0xe1c8f4…
05-08 18:07:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	22¢	$33	0xc91250…
05-08 18:05:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x74ea20…
05-08 18:04:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0x5cd030…
05-08 04:10:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	155	13¢	$20	0x98d74d…
05-07 08:24:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	305	8¢	$25	0x421bcd…
05-07 03:54:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x98243d…
05-07 03:51:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	366	8¢	$30	0x1b0b6c…
05-06 17:17:21	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	121	32¢	$39	0x23ad21…
05-06 15:06:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xd0e12d…
05-06 09:21:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	212	9¢	$20	0x8f3840…
05-06 09:21:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	11¢	$23	0xf5b887…
05-06 09:14:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0xfb886b…
05-06 09:11:36	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	121	29¢	$35	0xe1c2e7…
05-06 07:11:56	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xd7e4c2…
05-06 07:10:20	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xc5b194…
05-06 07:08:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x793e3f…
05-06 07:07:44	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x165e1a…
05-06 07:03:56	Netanyahu out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	625	2¢	$10	0xdaecf4…
05-02 13:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x5dec50…
05-02 12:15:24	T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand - Team Top Batter Bangladesh Winner	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x7dcfee…
05-02 11:46:52	T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand - Completed match?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4c0c7c…
05-02 10:09:24	T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand - Completed match?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x854221…
05-02 09:51:24	T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand - Completed match?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0c532a…
05-01 15:04:38	Chirayu Rana divorced?	Yes	BUY	92	13¢	$12	0x2748d7…
05-01 03:02:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	277	8¢	$22	0xaa4d6a…
04-30 19:20:42	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xe26c52…
04-30 18:56:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xf89743…