Probable-Cheese — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,489

lifetime

Volume

$7.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 06-09 17:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

79% 96% +$0

Sports

17% 100% +$0

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-23 13:53
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$10	5	5	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 spread away 2pt5	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-11 21:59
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	06-03 04:48
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	3	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-24 17:22
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-30 04:48
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-09 07:09
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	3	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-27 17:22
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-11 10:12
ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-30 05:38
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-31 04:00
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$10	5	5	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-01 01:52
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-15 20:55
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-24 17:14
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
cs2 k271 100t 2026 04 03 game1	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-03 13:14
cs2 js1 ursa 2026 04 07 game1	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-07 13:41
nba min den 2026 04 18	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-18 22:38
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers	1	$5	5	0	+5	Texas Rangers	+$0	05-10 20:59
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 8 2026 15corhigher	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-08 11:25
atp taguchi jubb 2026 03 29	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	03-31 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 25?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-25 07:07
highest temperature in london on april 9 2026 21c	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-09 14:04
atp altmaie martine 2026 03 30 first set total 8pt5	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	03-31 21:59
AFC Unirea Slobozia vs. FC UTA Arad: O/U 0.5	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-18 20:01
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-16 21:13
atp schwaer samuel 2026 04 10 first set winner Schwaerzler vs Samuel	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-10 11:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 17:17:39	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe19af7…
06-09 16:28:54	lol ckz ps1 2026 06 09	Partizan Sangal	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x289851…
06-09 12:20:12	itf khayndr aydemir 2026 06 09	Defne Aydemir	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1cb3cb…
06-08 21:37:01	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x738698…
06-08 12:03:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x00ac96…
06-07 21:58:16	mlb mil col 2026 06 07 spread away 1pt5	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xef12be…
06-07 21:09:31	mlb cws phi 2026 06 07	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe7e5c2…
06-07 17:38:58	mlbb ts ver 2026 06 07 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe4a8df…
06-07 17:03:42	cs2 bb3 m80 2026 06 07	BetBoom Team	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf7925c…
06-07 13:09:46	sc2 hero cure 2026 06 07	herO	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcf1f10…
06-07 02:18:03	mlb cle tex 2026 06 06 spread away 1pt5	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0090e1…
06-06 23:09:45	codmw tex riyf 2026 06 06	OpTic Texas	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb8d82f…
06-06 22:08:30	mlb oak hou 2026 06 06 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4a13e2…
06-06 14:19:19	lol jdg blg 2026 06 06 game handicap home 1pt5	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd05a2f…
06-06 11:32:36	itf jovanov davies 2026 06 06	Allegra Korpanec Davies	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8e7703…
06-06 11:32:34	itf haavist petruze 2026 06 06	Lucie Petruzelova	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x541280…
06-05 15:45:19	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05 set handicap away 2pt5	Mensik	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa7d70b…
06-05 01:48:04	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd5a5cd…
06-04 14:24:33	itf spiteri pace 2026 06 04	Dalila Spiteri	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb9e934…
06-03 19:23:34	Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Guo/Mladenovic	Aoyama/Liang	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6d25a9…
06-03 16:04:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6d3a32…
06-03 12:06:32	Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin	Granollers/Zeballos	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe4ef35…
06-03 11:31:46	T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman	Oman	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5a4c10…
06-03 06:26:04	T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait	Malaysia	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x04b9b5…
06-03 04:48:18	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x869e17…
06-03 00:47:04	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner	QoR	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1c6d52…
06-02 22:56:07	Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner	NRG Academy	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9c682e…
06-02 15:24:31	Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Carlota Martinez Cirez	Mayar Sherif	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xaa4fbf…
06-01 18:06:51	Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5fb070…
06-01 14:42:50	Cobolli vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa88eff…
06-01 14:41:33	will spy reach 750 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xac70d7…
06-01 05:58:32	Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x286bea…
06-01 04:11:26	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	Team Liquid	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6d7dbb…
05-31 21:15:11	Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5	Over 4.5	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf964f9…
05-31 19:09:27	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x198fe3…
05-31 16:58:45	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7399af…
05-31 16:15:28	T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands	Netherlands	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1203be…
05-31 16:11:32	Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9fb239…
05-31 15:36:44	Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1f4995…
05-31 15:26:44	Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)	Busta	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x55e0d1…
05-31 14:19:37	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9c098d…
05-31 04:46:02	Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)	Seattle Mariners	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc9e5c7…
05-30 22:09:43	San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xff9be8…
05-30 16:16:01	T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh	Scotland	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0d5005…
05-30 14:25:12	PAOK vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x773c36…
05-30 13:33:45	KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eagles	Hanwha Eagles	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x10b426…
05-30 13:13:43	Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)	Svajda	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5a82da…
05-30 12:10:48	Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)	Jovic	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd6acc6…
05-30 12:02:23	Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8afbce…
05-30 10:17:19	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0e3914…
05-30 07:45:27	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x34c083…
05-30 05:38:10	ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x73460e…
05-30 04:48:17	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	August Holmgren	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x270405…
05-29 21:06:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbf5a7e…
05-29 21:01:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9433a1…
05-29 19:20:07	Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x62749a…
05-29 18:59:55	Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc8a4ff…
05-29 17:54:03	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7557af…
05-29 17:27:41	Spread: Gambia (-1.5)	IR Iran	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd34504…
05-29 13:57:03	Borges vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x86b4e0…
05-29 09:15:05	ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kristina Kroitor vs Sevil Yuldasheva	Kristina Kroitor	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1342fc…
05-28 16:52:17	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x30e277…
05-28 12:37:01	Flavio Cobolli vs. Yibing Wu: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Under 3.5	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4f095f…
05-28 12:33:03	Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Cerundolo	Sinner	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x18cd87…
05-28 02:32:34	Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7945d2…
05-27 17:22:33	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	TheMongolz	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa88950…
05-27 17:22:14	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x925f66…
05-27 17:22:12	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9bad92…
05-27 14:22:00	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf61222…
05-26 21:29:19	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x98ca88…
05-26 20:00:20	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x003782…
05-26 13:17:56	Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb8dbab…
05-26 06:28:01	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0aebd5…
05-25 08:09:09	T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A	New Zealand A	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x020c40…
05-25 04:48:20	Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1c4aed…
05-25 01:24:37	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcde64e…
05-24 22:57:07	Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x856fc3…
05-24 20:12:35	Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy	Nishesh Basavareddy	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x744675…
05-24 19:24:12	Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci	Quentin Halys	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x17825e…
05-24 18:17:30	Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xac5d94…
05-24 17:56:10	Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)	Liverpool FC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x684329…
05-24 17:22:19	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9cff6d…
05-24 17:17:14	Spread: FC Andorra (-1.5)	AD Ceuta FC	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x657569…
05-24 16:03:00	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbe9784…
05-24 16:02:59	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbcd8dd…
05-24 15:29:56	AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x22480d…
05-24 08:02:47	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc9c42a…
05-24 04:36:03	Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)	Los Angeles Galaxy	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xee9ae6…
05-24 03:08:03	Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x95d200…
05-23 21:01:38	Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)	Levante UD	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdaec90…
05-23 16:16:05	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner	ThunderTalk Gaming	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8d7716…
05-23 14:29:04	ITF Bol: Andrey Chepelev vs Noa Vukadin	Noa Vukadin	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x167f42…
05-23 01:24:47	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4a4e21…
05-22 20:37:19	Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)	ACF Fiorentina	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4b8ee7…
05-22 19:43:55	FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. FC Argeș Pitești: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4e58ae…
05-22 11:51:16	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdc0a81…
05-22 04:09:39	CSyD Macará vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfff726…
05-22 03:36:04	ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8d9f21…
05-21 20:15:45	Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)	Detroit Tigers	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0f65d6…
05-21 20:07:54	Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x87c97d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Helpful-Notice 0xad42…0e0b	752	$3.84K	773	06-09 17:17
Ironclad-Meme 0x0549…04a7	745	$3.81K	770	06-09 17:38
Forceful-Breadfruit 0xf167…462b	745	$3.80K	764	06-09 17:17
Cylindrical-Pug 0x2f35…ffcb	745	$3.80K	764	06-09 17:22
Soulful-Ligula 0xeb5d…ae03	739	$3.78K	760	06-09 16:28
Silly-Conga 0xed79…bb9a	736	$7.53K	762	06-09 17:38
Liquid-Musculature 0x6ab5…6a55	733	$3.74K	755	06-09 17:38
Cute-Opossum 0xf3ce…edc5	731	$18.7K	765	06-06 23:10