Likely-Measles — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.9%

Resolved

Trades

784

lifetime

Volume

$7.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 08-12 14:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

58% 0% $-4

Other

28% 33% $-16

Crypto

11% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	9	$292	385	385	+0	open	—	04-07 22:49
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$191	100	100	+0	open	—	03-16 12:57
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	10	$150	129	129	+0	open	—	04-04 09:23
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	14	$147	216	216	+0	open	—	04-09 00:15
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	17	$138	205	185	+20	open	—	04-15 14:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	13	$136	130	130	+0	open	—	06-25 13:36
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$134	140	140	+0	open	—	04-15 21:08
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$127	87	87	+0	open	—	03-21 15:56
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	6	$119	80	80	+0	open	—	03-30 10:59
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	8	$115	149	149	+0	open	—	04-04 17:39
will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	10	$110	87	87	+0	open	—	07-21 23:53
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	11	$105	252	252	+0	open	—	04-07 20:35
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	4	$105	60	60	+0	open	—	03-28 08:37
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	11	$104	140	140	+0	open	—	07-27 05:00
will mrbeast say feastables during his next video	5	$99	110	40	+70	open	—	03-20 21:53
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	4	$92	63	63	+0	open	—	03-31 11:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$91	101	101	+0	open	—	04-07 22:32
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	8	$91	94	94	+0	open	—	03-30 21:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	7	$86	65	64	+1	open	—	04-13 19:53
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$84	121	121	+0	open	—	03-30 11:36
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	6	$81	105	105	+0	open	—	04-07 22:19
ethereum above 1800 on july 11 2026	6	$77	80	80	+0	open	—	07-11 06:22
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	9	$75	60	60	+0	open	—	04-30 13:40
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$73	241	241	+0	open	—	03-29 11:45
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	4	$72	65	65	+0	open	—	08-08 14:13
will graham platner drop out by july 8	9	$70	86	86	+0	open	—	07-09 00:11
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	4	$63	80	80	+0	open	—	07-24 19:10
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	6	$59	52	52	+0	open	—	07-26 08:56
bitcoin above 74k on march 19	1	$59	100	0	+100	open	—	03-17 22:27
will mrbeast say subscribe during his next video 268	2	$58	49	49	+0	open	—	03-21 15:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 14:38:00	will spcx reach 145 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x88ecdb…
08-12 06:37:10	will spcx reach 145 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x0a6311…
08-12 06:07:48	will spcx reach 145 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x3d6c45…
08-09 03:29:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x922d96…
08-08 19:40:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x605cce…
08-08 19:33:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x44b019…
08-08 19:32:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0xb96a06…
08-08 19:31:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x8542c4…
08-08 19:24:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xe1782b…
08-08 16:21:01	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xa08f32…
08-08 14:14:28	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x062b52…
08-08 14:13:22	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0xa6e5ab…
08-08 14:13:15	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	40	48¢	$19	0x51c844…
08-08 14:07:10	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x53552c…
08-05 14:42:51	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	16	52¢	$8	0x2026a9…
08-04 23:40:39	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	15	76¢	$11	0x931297…
08-04 09:55:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x0880ea…
08-02 04:45:24	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0xe98b0e…
08-01 21:02:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0xe14730…
08-01 19:06:24	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x636f72…
08-01 18:34:17	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xc0ed6c…
07-31 16:49:03	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xd750c9…
07-28 22:00:05	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xfdcbb9…
07-28 22:00:02	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	SELL	8	55¢	$4	0x3a5f49…
07-28 21:34:46	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0xeabb3e…
07-28 21:28:35	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x3c824e…
07-28 21:17:17	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x484265…
07-28 21:14:34	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x8b6fda…
07-28 21:08:58	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xae61f4…
07-28 04:36:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x964f24…
07-27 05:01:33	will openais valuation hit low 500b by december 31 785 717	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x1ddbd1…
07-27 05:00:46	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	80	37¢	$30	0x23fb87…
07-26 22:01:10	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	80	44¢	$35	0x1ea8cf…
07-26 08:56:10	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x0d36c9…
07-26 08:55:12	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	9	26¢	$2	0xb133b7…
07-25 19:32:13	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x886c98…
07-25 18:04:03	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x3df154…
07-25 17:47:55	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0x77e55b…
07-25 08:10:24	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xd6e551…
07-25 08:09:25	RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x048b77…
07-25 08:06:45	Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0xbbebcb…
07-25 07:59:21	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x7560c2…
07-25 07:56:19	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xee753d…
07-25 03:26:16	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0x58cf3a…
07-24 22:32:54	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x799b45…
07-24 22:32:54	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$1	0x5d5486…
07-24 22:23:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xf1c491…
07-24 22:18:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x249679…
07-24 22:15:33	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa46c48…
07-24 19:10:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	60	26¢	$16	0x46b9e9…
07-24 14:55:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x5d186e…
07-24 13:13:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	60	23¢	$14	0x6e9edb…
07-24 10:42:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0x9ed5f3…
07-24 10:40:06	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x5b9ebf…
07-24 07:18:21	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x5b5204…
07-24 01:00:12	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xd4088f…
07-23 20:40:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x24013c…
07-23 19:32:19	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x4218c9…
07-23 18:28:55	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x28cbe5…
07-23 18:21:27	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xb37b08…
07-23 18:16:24	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x9fbd42…
07-23 17:22:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x2adc7c…
07-23 17:20:22	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x24c4d9…
07-23 15:38:19	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	24	26¢	$6	0x2d297a…
07-23 15:38:18	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x688a22…
07-23 11:12:37	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xff1f71…
07-23 11:01:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x32110e…
07-22 22:55:15	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xa52331…
07-22 21:27:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x816774…
07-22 08:13:42	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x00ff6a…
07-22 00:21:16	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	30	37¢	$11	0x3640ed…
07-21 23:53:06	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x451e59…
07-21 23:51:12	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x5844c0…
07-21 23:20:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xf841f6…
07-21 23:16:54	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x968b74…
07-21 23:13:06	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1db69f…
07-21 22:49:54	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x0a368b…
07-21 19:06:24	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$13	0x7f51a8…
07-21 18:38:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xd32d84…
07-21 18:01:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x39547e…
07-21 14:15:48	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x0759eb…
07-20 21:07:39	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0x3bc2e7…
07-20 20:37:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x4680ab…
07-20 20:27:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xb11ebf…
07-20 20:25:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x87d6cf…
07-20 18:42:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x33d341…
07-20 11:31:31	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0xf0ce7a…
07-20 10:34:39	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x792ac0…
07-20 09:45:06	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xa0b7fd…
07-20 08:10:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xf7aec9…
07-20 08:07:58	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x720a25…
07-20 08:05:57	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xafe774…
07-20 08:05:55	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xde2014…
07-20 07:57:57	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xa5185a…
07-20 07:54:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2abb08…
07-20 07:47:00	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x430459…
07-20 07:44:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0xdee59f…
07-20 07:43:43	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x6f913f…
07-19 22:59:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x5cb0bb…
07-19 22:50:39	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x0d8208…