Likely-Measles — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$234

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

277

Trades

1,247

lifetime

Volume

$10.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-30 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Politics

45% 66% -$42

Other

35% 69% -$18

Crypto

10% 68% -$68

Sports

7% 57% -$86

Tech

3% 33% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+50	$10	22¢	$11	+$1	07-31 08:30
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	-18	-$7	50¢	$-9	-$2	10-19 17:24
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+100	$6	8¢	$8	+$2	07-31 13:36
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+30	$7	12¢	$4	-$3	07-31 08:30
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-11	-$1	4¢	$-0	+$1	07-15 05:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	9	$292	385	385	+0	Yes	+$28	04-07 22:49
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$191	100	100	+0	No	+$3	03-16 12:57
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	10	$150	129	129	+0	Yes	$0	04-04 09:23
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	14	$147	216	216	+0	Yes	+$9	04-09 00:15
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	11	$139	105	105	+0	No	+$9	06-19 23:07
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	17	$138	205	185	+20	No	+$10	04-15 14:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	13	$136	130	130	+0	No	+$11	06-25 13:36
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$134	140	140	+0	Yes	+$10	04-15 21:08
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$127	87	87	+0	Yes	+$7	03-21 15:56
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	12	$119	135	185	-50	No	+$10	06-07 19:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	6	$119	80	80	+0	Yes	+$9	03-30 10:59
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	8	$115	149	149	+0	Yes	+$5	04-04 17:39
will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	10	$110	87	87	+0	No	+$1	07-21 23:53
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	11	$106	115	215	-100	Yes	-$84	06-14 03:14
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	11	$105	252	252	+0	No	+$3	04-07 20:35
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	4	$105	60	60	+0	Yes	+$5	03-28 08:37
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	11	$104	140	140	+0	Yes	-$4	07-27 05:00
will mrbeast say feastables during his next video	5	$99	110	40	+70	No	-$40	03-20 21:53
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	13	$97	110	110	+0	Yes	+$4	07-19 20:54
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	4	$92	63	63	+0	Yes	+$2	03-31 11:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$91	101	101	+0	Yes	+$7	04-07 22:32
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	8	$91	94	94	+0	No	+$5	03-30 21:23
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	8	$86	60	60	+0	Yes	-$1	07-31 08:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	7	$86	65	64	+1	No	+$3	04-13 19:53
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$84	121	121	+0	Yes	-$4	03-30 11:36
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	47	$83	190	190	+0	Yes	+$1	06-17 13:20
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	6	$81	105	105	+0	No	-$1	04-07 22:19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	6	$79	70	70	+0	open	—	10-21 18:58
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$78	82	70	+12	No	-$6	05-07 17:39
ethereum above 1800 on july 11 2026	6	$77	80	80	+0	Yes	+$4	07-11 06:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 14:07:37	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0xe1108e…
10-29 21:32:55	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	76¢	$11	0x03bf4c…
10-21 18:58:59	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x7e7380…
10-19 17:24:00	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x9bcc16…
10-18 01:14:33	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xf7d0aa…
10-17 17:32:45	Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial second round by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x53b770…
10-17 13:41:51	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x73c1e4…
10-16 11:50:52	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x8daba7…
10-14 04:59:35	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xdb3ba3…
10-14 04:53:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x39f22a…
10-14 04:33:17	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xa08ced…
10-14 00:27:28	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xf18567…
10-12 11:33:26	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x678d08…
10-09 20:42:13	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x37c306…
10-02 12:34:35	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 30?	No	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x2a84d5…
09-29 20:05:15	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x82b831…
09-28 22:55:24	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x8e51c9…
09-27 10:45:51	Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xcb5f06…
09-27 10:40:14	Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x802e54…
09-27 10:35:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 30?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xfe51e4…
09-27 10:34:38	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x929392…
09-27 10:18:06	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x029994…
09-27 10:13:48	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x346e00…
09-24 09:36:18	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xe1cc76…
09-24 06:54:45	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x492fae…
09-24 06:49:51	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x9249f0…
09-24 06:30:23	Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x7d6e5a…
09-24 01:25:46	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0xc29aae…
09-24 01:24:53	Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x9b9083…
09-23 15:30:13	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x22c329…
09-23 15:27:20	Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x9ee5c0…
09-23 15:26:08	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xf5581b…
09-21 14:42:56	Will RNI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xd87889…
09-21 07:21:26	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$2	0xf260e7…
09-18 15:03:49	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	60¢	$27	0x00d08b…
09-17 15:27:30	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x4c2081…
09-17 15:26:37	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x44c4ac…
09-17 15:24:09	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x41d091…
09-15 10:16:25	Will RNI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x70185c…
09-14 05:03:00	will ethereum reach 2700 in september 2026	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0x18b4fa…
09-13 17:38:21	will ethereum reach 2700 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x47db56…
09-13 17:28:27	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x24c24f…
09-10 10:39:36	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0x78f1eb…
09-09 19:58:49	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x53b028…
09-09 17:19:06	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	38¢	$1	0x2ae4f4…
09-09 06:18:24	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xab388a…
09-06 23:26:03	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0xf1975f…
09-06 20:57:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	83¢	$12	0x146ad7…
09-06 17:13:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	SELL	19	70¢	$14	0xeea878…
09-04 19:30:34	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x96d8bd…
09-04 17:08:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xb4b254…
09-04 04:51:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x5e7a79…
09-03 22:21:30	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?	Under	SELL	19	61¢	$12	0xf0dbfc…
09-03 19:45:33	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?	Under	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x8aeee5…
09-03 19:43:22	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	60¢	$11	0x215da2…
09-03 16:47:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0x9cda37…
09-03 16:43:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x76718d…
09-03 12:35:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x0d5eaf…
09-02 07:39:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xb594f0…
09-01 19:01:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x8ba408…
09-01 16:09:25	Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	No	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x247a7b…
09-01 13:54:21	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xbdfd5d…
09-01 06:41:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x00f372…
08-30 23:26:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x103924…
08-30 20:57:10	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xfb59fb…
08-30 20:55:27	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb0254f…
08-30 18:48:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x739a56…
08-30 18:47:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x01b8ef…
08-30 14:59:18	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0xaae53c…
08-30 14:31:19	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x1affab…
08-30 13:14:58	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xdb8534…
08-30 12:12:36	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xad3f0a…
08-30 04:40:16	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x715367…
08-30 03:26:42	Will Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x9efe9d…
08-29 15:07:54	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x42b095…
08-29 15:07:12	Will Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xcb18f5…
08-29 15:04:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xb0d7ee…
08-29 15:01:24	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	SELL	150	11¢	$16	0x2c0a5d…
08-29 01:36:28	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xc36862…
08-29 01:34:24	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x53566f…
08-28 22:22:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2fd5e9…
08-28 18:59:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	21	13¢	$3	0xe29d56…
08-28 18:56:51	Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xd293d4…
08-28 18:50:09	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xc22f6f…
08-28 17:54:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x7fc288…
08-28 17:50:39	Will Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x06932e…
08-28 17:42:40	Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0x700202…
08-26 09:50:09	Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xbd4201…
08-26 09:47:55	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x231a1c…
08-25 21:31:01	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	SELL	8	55¢	$4	0x8efcfe…
08-25 21:02:52	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$6	0x57a892…
08-25 20:40:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	110	21¢	$23	0x14ceb6…
08-24 19:05:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x4d3cec…
08-24 11:16:22	Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x6b73b8…
08-24 11:14:48	Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	No	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x08b933…
08-24 11:10:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xfc200b…
08-24 11:08:58	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x851933…
08-21 10:27:48	will gold gc hit high 5000 by end of december 2026	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0x7a2e32…
08-20 23:49:16	Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-08-20?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x0007aa…
08-20 11:25:58	will gold gc hit high 5000 by end of december 2026	Yes	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x0d1b18…