Crazy-Pride — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

Trades

856

lifetime

Volume

$2.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-26

last 07-17 15:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 57% $-21

Politics

35% — —

Other

6% 100% +$1

Tech

3% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 144 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	36¢	$0	$-0	06-07 02:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	36	$100	323	341	-18	open	—	06-12 19:11
will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	23	$92	60	55	+5	open	—	07-12 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	6	$73	61	61	+0	Down	+$33	05-10 08:40
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	20	$71	57	57	+0	open	—	07-15 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	8	$65	67	66	+1	Down	+$13	05-11 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	11	$64	47	47	+0	Up	+$4	05-11 22:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	33	$63	132	153	-21	open	—	06-07 19:48
will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	20	$63	59	54	+5	open	—	06-26 00:35
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	7	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	07-15 21:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	26	$62	57	57	+0	open	—	06-14 08:49
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	24	$61	60	51	+9	open	—	07-09 11:03
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	31	$57	164	174	-10	open	—	06-07 21:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	18	$56	46	46	+0	open	—	06-14 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	9	$56	115	115	+0	Up	+$30	05-11 21:44
btc updown 5m 1782037500	3	$55	276	0	+276	open	—	06-21 10:29
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	9	$53	30	30	+0	open	—	06-13 18:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	26	$53	68	72	-4	open	—	06-14 21:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	17	$50	40	45	-5	open	—	06-19 21:04
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	5	$50	440	0	+440	open	—	04-26 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	7	$46	65	57	+8	Up	+$4	05-11 21:49
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	26	$44	58	58	+0	open	—	06-14 21:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	7	$43	139	37	+102	Down	+$0	05-11 22:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	18	$43	128	84	+44	open	—	06-02 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	9	$40	40	40	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 09:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	4	$39	70	55	+15	open	—	05-03 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	8	$39	168	27	+142	Down	+$3	05-11 21:29
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	11	$38	41	41	+0	open	—	06-14 20:54
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	9	$38	46	30	+16	open	—	05-31 10:27
btc updown 5m 1782036600	2	$37	41	17	+24	open	—	06-21 10:13
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	10	$37	25	25	+0	open	—	06-04 19:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 09:53:18	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7380a3…
07-22 09:49:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x15794c…
07-22 09:27:42	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xddd6ed…
07-22 09:27:34	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xc58d86…
07-17 15:50:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x02bfd6…
07-16 16:47:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xc0e186…
07-16 16:47:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xac7fc0…
07-16 08:24:08	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x754f54…
07-15 21:30:37	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xbeafd2…
07-15 15:23:38	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0xeddf67…
07-15 15:20:05	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x0f78e7…
07-15 14:44:17	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf8ec7b…
07-15 13:22:19	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x1dda35…
07-15 12:54:17	bitcoin above 64k on july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x23f290…
07-15 11:03:44	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	18	96¢	$18	0x728d0d…
07-15 10:49:59	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x296c05…
07-15 05:58:43	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xcb3f46…
07-15 05:43:05	bitcoin above 64k on july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb57a1b…
07-15 05:08:44	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x771e98…
07-13 14:48:20	bitcoin above 62k on july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x862571…
07-13 14:31:58	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xbda654…
07-13 00:01:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x5234cc…
07-12 21:59:22	bitcoin above 62k on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x852a2a…
07-12 21:25:25	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x3ebbb8…
07-12 18:44:01	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x03409f…
07-12 15:28:02	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc658a4…
07-12 15:24:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x0b10cb…
07-12 11:31:07	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x3f9501…
07-12 11:19:37	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x73f0c7…
07-12 11:17:10	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xf1726c…
07-12 11:09:59	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xa64945…
07-12 05:43:47	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x9f51df…
07-12 05:25:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x01a8c3…
07-11 23:26:04	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xc0a82c…
07-11 22:49:53	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x567efb…
07-11 22:36:47	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x89b318…
07-11 22:20:13	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x6d4729…
07-11 15:44:25	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xfc0ab2…
07-11 15:37:19	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x2f3f90…
07-11 00:02:37	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x86d853…
07-10 23:51:47	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x28a8e1…
07-10 23:14:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x379684…
07-10 22:50:41	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x96c4cf…
07-10 16:13:20	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x8ed62e…
07-10 11:10:01	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x20b3ff…
07-10 05:43:56	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x983466…
07-10 05:39:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xf2c0e3…
07-10 03:53:28	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xe9c071…
07-10 01:49:26	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x91159b…
07-09 19:58:43	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x998fe1…
07-09 19:52:59	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xadcc42…
07-09 17:59:22	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0xf7c783…
07-09 17:49:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x38b75c…
07-09 15:29:31	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x740899…
07-09 15:29:31	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6e2a11…
07-09 15:29:31	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x5577bd…
07-09 15:16:05	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x1cb7fb…
07-09 14:51:08	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x03243e…
07-09 13:54:41	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x45e0a1…
07-09 13:31:44	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe2c360…
07-09 12:54:20	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x207c4a…
07-09 11:03:29	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x794a08…
07-09 10:34:37	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbdf3d3…
07-09 04:51:08	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x727554…
07-09 01:50:43	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x0e4c93…
07-09 00:49:16	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xc6c2bf…
07-09 00:42:23	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x42af74…
07-08 22:40:22	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x77ed46…
07-08 21:32:52	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x62950f…
07-08 21:26:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x020bbf…
07-08 20:17:56	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0xd782cc…
07-08 20:05:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xeb7ebc…
07-08 19:41:02	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x62011b…
07-08 17:47:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x1c79b1…
07-08 17:47:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x6f5660…
07-08 17:40:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5c8770…
07-08 14:34:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xd30b64…
07-08 14:28:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xa6be7c…
07-08 06:40:13	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xe97f8d…
07-08 06:04:04	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x632a19…
07-08 02:16:31	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xdc00a5…
07-07 22:05:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x2857f4…
07-07 22:00:05	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe990c3…
07-07 15:32:04	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xd5097c…
07-07 15:30:10	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x252f4f…
07-07 15:07:08	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x36a195…
07-07 14:23:17	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xc83b64…
07-07 13:27:28	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x0d08f3…
07-07 13:26:38	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xbb2edf…
07-07 13:24:04	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x1f5140…
07-07 13:17:08	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xf59b15…
07-07 11:12:40	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xdc9d12…
07-07 10:23:26	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x93fc43…
07-07 09:48:37	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x6fca79…
07-07 09:29:14	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xde466e…
07-07 08:56:50	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xb0592d…
07-07 07:45:47	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdc0bf8…
07-07 07:36:01	will bitcoin reach 65k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x6c0385…
07-07 07:06:01	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x320b4a…
07-07 06:21:46	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xf3a635…