Realized P&L
+$873
Unrealized P&L
+$459
Hit rate
70.0%
Resolved
8,209
Trades
27,231
lifetime
Volume
$95.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.94K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-21
last 10-23 16:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 70 days
Categories
Other
88% 37% +$831
Politics
6% 40% +$80
Crypto
3% 39% +$135
Sports
3% 35% -$190
Tech
1% 22% +$11
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 1148 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No +150 $105 100¢ $150 +$45 09-24 13:19
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +165 $80 78¢ $128 +$48 09-21 18:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +150 $90 84¢ $127 +$36 10-11 15:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +126 $80 97¢ $122 +$42 10-20 14:58
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +110 $85 97¢ $107 +$21 09-15 18:39
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +120 $74 82¢ $99 +$25 10-08 14:54
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +93 $65 99¢ $92 +$27 10-02 11:47
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +90 $34 99¢ $89 +$55 10-11 13:54
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +100 $64 86¢ $86 +$22 09-21 16:44
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +100 $81 79¢ $79 -$2 09-28 11:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +73 $55 99¢ $72 +$17 10-11 14:54
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +70 $31 97¢ $68 +$38 10-12 17:37
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +90 $65 74¢ $67 +$2 09-28 14:44
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +60 $45 99¢ $59 +$15 10-22 03:29
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +60 $41 98¢ $59 +$18 09-06 22:59
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +50 $38 99¢ $49 +$11 10-05 19:51
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +50 $43 96¢ $48 +$5 10-19 20:26
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No +46 $34 98¢ $45 +$12 09-29 20:42
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +45 $34 94¢ $42 +$8 09-20 22:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +70 $30 60¢ $42 +$12 10-20 14:42
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +40 $35 97¢ $39 +$4 10-05 06:46
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +171 $81 22¢ $38 -$43 09-21 18:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +40 $30 93¢ $37 +$7 10-21 21:46
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +40 $22 87¢ $35 +$13 10-21 20:07
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +30 $18 99¢ $30 +$12 10-07 23:48
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +30 $22 97¢ $29 +$7 10-21 10:35
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? No +30 $24 88¢ $26 +$2 09-21 14:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +66 $36 40¢ $26 -$10 10-20 14:30
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +99 $22 26¢ $26 +$4 10-13 10:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? No +36 $16 66¢ $24 +$8 10-21 14:37