Realized P&L
+$900
Unrealized P&L
+$8.94K
Hit rate
55.2%
Resolved
415
Trades
2,341
lifetime
Volume
$391.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$167
Open exposure
$63.0K
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 20:05
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 133 days
Categories
Other
52% 49% -$23,124
Sports
19% 49% +$45,806
Politics
17% 41% -$13,080
Tech
6% 57% -$2,666
Crypto
5% 40% -$6,036
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No +10,000 $8,700 90¢ $8.9K +$250 10-08 16:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +7,400 $5,746 94¢ $7.0K +$1,210 10-25 16:45
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +8,380 $4,300 80¢ $6.7K +$2,362 10-10 12:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,975 $4,218 82¢ $4.1K -$114 10-11 21:10
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +4,311 $3,303 94¢ $4.1K +$771 10-13 16:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +4,082 $2,755 97¢ $4.0K +$1,205 10-01 08:43
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +4,000 $3,440 86¢ $3.4K -$20 09-23 13:54
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +7,000 $1,680 47¢ $3.3K +$1,610 09-29 08:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +3,886 $2,098 60¢ $2.3K +$216 10-10 12:56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +2,200 $1,584 100¢ $2.2K +$609 10-01 16:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 Yes +2,000 $1,580 96¢ $1.9K +$350 10-02 06:20
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes +2,272 $1,414 78¢ $1.8K +$346 10-26 13:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +1,993 $1,565 86¢ $1.7K +$159 09-17 10:10
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No +1,702 $1,446 94¢ $1.6K +$162 09-27 07:58
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +2,100 $1,533 72¢ $1.5K -$21 10-21 17:25
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +5,000 $1,231 30¢ $1.5K +$244 09-23 15:14
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +1,500 $870 94¢ $1.4K +$547 10-16 17:42
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +1,229 $807 100¢ $1.2K +$416 09-17 10:17
us iran hormuz agreement by november 2 No +1,180 $1,009 95¢ $1.1K +$112 10-14 19:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +1,501 $1,080 72¢ $1.1K +$9 10-10 12:56
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +4,488 $667 13¢ $583 -$84 10-01 10:35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +1,610 $1,095 29¢ $467 -$628 10-15 13:31
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No -431 -$395 96¢ $-415 -$20 06-30 22:02
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No +2,354 $636 16¢ $388 -$247 09-23 19:59
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +2,000 $820 16¢ $320 -$500 10-14 22:18