Elastic-Ladybug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.1%

Resolved

213

Trades

525

lifetime

Volume

$522

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-01 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Other

44% 6% -$2

Politics

28% 11% -$1

Crypto

21% 24% $0

Tech

5% 0% $0

Sports

2% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-01).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	9	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	01-14 03:03
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	8	$8	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	02-04 04:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	02-10 10:00
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	04-14 03:15
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	02-12 08:33
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	01-26 10:08
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-18 06:07
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	3	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	02-18 10:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-13 06:59
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:28
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-03 06:07
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-26 04:20
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-06 07:59
bitcoin above 72k on april 21	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-21 03:35
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:13
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-24 07:57
will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-16 07:03
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	01-07 09:15
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-28 07:02
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-31 07:35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-11 08:03
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	02-20 06:51
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-04 03:33
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-01 06:47
Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-13 07:00
bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-05 06:08
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	05-22 06:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-01 06:59
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	03-28 06:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-29 06:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 09:25:38	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x19611c…
08-01 09:18:50	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x040baf…
07-31 07:35:35	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x37bd51…
07-31 07:28:24	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xffecbe…
07-31 07:17:48	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4e8fc5…
07-31 07:11:24	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc0d836…
07-30 08:35:27	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x52af18…
07-30 08:23:33	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8615f5…
07-30 08:18:21	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xddedab…
07-30 08:13:51	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x72b7aa…
07-29 08:19:56	Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3b1706…
07-29 08:17:09	Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2b8bee…
07-29 08:13:59	Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x66b888…
07-29 08:01:15	Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa60826…
07-29 08:00:54	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb555df…
07-28 10:06:31	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6814d4…
07-28 10:03:02	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa186b9…
07-28 07:40:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb38212…
07-27 06:51:03	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8a0cbf…
07-27 06:44:40	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x321cb3…
07-27 06:40:45	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xcb8b9a…
07-27 06:34:40	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf2b0a7…
07-25 07:58:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x200e17…
07-25 07:51:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xdbacda…
07-25 07:47:51	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa89dfd…
07-25 07:42:27	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa8dc41…
07-24 07:51:34	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3b6659…
07-24 07:46:43	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x93d5a9…
07-24 07:41:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb45d13…
07-24 07:28:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x53b61a…
07-23 07:48:30	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x7a84c4…
07-23 07:41:43	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x46f010…
07-23 07:36:42	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xa3a1a3…
07-23 07:29:22	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x8d19d4…
07-22 07:28:52	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8a3320…
07-22 07:19:57	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x51acca…
07-22 07:13:25	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf8d5db…
07-22 07:00:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfca2ae…
07-21 06:54:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa00501…
07-21 06:49:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x05233a…
07-21 06:45:03	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x1808d9…
07-21 06:36:16	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xd85a6f…
07-20 07:51:13	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc6ec86…
07-20 07:41:16	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe5029b…
07-20 07:36:01	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x472fa5…
07-20 07:30:19	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7b46f6…
07-18 07:37:22	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x8c89c9…
07-18 07:25:30	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3fe143…
07-18 07:20:46	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x265612…
07-18 07:14:22	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf31af9…
07-17 07:03:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfa910a…
07-17 06:57:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6edf5b…
07-17 06:52:52	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd3633b…
07-17 06:43:33	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x980d6a…
07-16 08:11:49	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x2bf326…
07-16 07:38:41	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa87744…
07-16 07:32:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7c9af9…
07-16 07:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc3954d…
07-15 08:00:52	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9c34c1…
07-15 07:51:43	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcb9c09…
07-15 07:47:05	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x44b3a5…
07-15 07:39:26	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x06cddf…
07-14 07:37:10	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe6eed5…
07-14 07:28:37	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6cf4ad…
07-14 07:17:14	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xf0cc7b…
07-14 07:04:41	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xaec542…
07-13 07:43:59	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x08d742…
07-13 07:40:23	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x34dfdf…
07-13 07:29:01	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x86a993…
07-13 07:19:44	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf2d219…
07-11 07:53:40	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xccc00f…
07-11 07:46:55	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x67bacf…
07-11 07:39:08	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc663ab…
07-11 07:34:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x32be2b…
07-10 08:02:17	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x248a0f…
07-10 07:51:19	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x4ce099…
07-10 07:45:44	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xdd2866…
07-10 07:37:32	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xeb7a44…
07-09 07:06:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xacad09…
07-09 06:54:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xac7972…
07-09 06:50:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x7739f6…
07-09 06:43:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x42f818…
07-08 07:20:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0d3bbb…
07-08 07:10:53	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1d89a8…
07-08 07:07:10	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x24b5d3…
07-08 06:58:31	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1f479d…
07-07 07:41:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf5e8f3…
07-07 07:33:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x24cfc2…
07-07 07:30:38	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd8bd71…
07-07 07:21:49	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xeb265f…
07-06 07:59:26	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x281cd3…
07-06 07:48:53	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x725103…
07-06 07:47:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x78f5a1…
07-06 07:41:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x75a64c…
07-04 07:03:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd8f2d5…
07-04 06:56:11	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xba95be…
07-04 06:53:44	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x2a0e16…
07-04 06:49:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x1c6c18…
07-03 08:45:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xf6ba7c…
07-03 08:41:41	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4b271b…