Oval-Window — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.14K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

71.9%

Resolved

2,330

Trades

386,157

lifetime

Volume

$5.19M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$220

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-16 17:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 146 days

Categories

Other

62% 70% +$741

Politics

19% 77% +$457

Sports

17% 73% +$116

Tech

2% 42% -$172

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$3

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No		+220	$220	100¢	$220	$0	10-16 17:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	3,246	$51.3K	27,596	27,221	+375	No	+$47	03-03 09:54
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2,895	$48.1K	25,543	25,440	+103	No	+$12	03-10 15:27
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2,340	$43.9K	23,212	23,179	+34	No	+$26	03-14 20:32
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2,155	$42.5K	22,363	22,027	+336	No	+$37	02-27 05:37
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	3,867	$39.5K	27,566	27,646	-80	No	+$8	02-10 00:48
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2,656	$38.1K	19,714	19,855	-141	No	+$13	03-10 15:30
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2,094	$36.3K	18,656	18,586	+70	No	+$20	03-04 18:56
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2,791	$35.6K	19,124	18,706	+418	No	+$47	03-10 16:03
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	2,578	$33.4K	18,483	18,688	-205	No	-$4	01-31 13:50
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	1,756	$33.2K	17,338	17,200	+138	No	+$22	03-10 19:35
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	1,632	$31.5K	16,522	16,352	+170	No	+$17	02-25 11:08
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	1,498	$31.4K	16,415	16,276	+138	No	+$14	03-10 15:44
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	1,486	$29.1K	14,943	14,986	-43	No	+$18	02-21 01:33
will the us next strike iran on february 21 2026 et	1,442	$28.5K	14,750	14,554	+196	No	+$26	02-21 22:57
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3,419	$27.4K	28,646	28,248	+398	Yes	-$152	03-08 21:07
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1,311	$26.4K	13,685	13,558	+128	No	+$14	02-26 14:52
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2,261	$26.3K	16,142	15,805	+337	No	+$63	03-14 20:11
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	1,657	$25.9K	13,952	13,883	+69	No	+$17	03-28 10:15
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	3,305	$25.9K	19,504	19,122	+382	Yes	-$208	02-08 08:03
will italy win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1,229	$25.7K	13,292	13,163	+128	No	+$13	02-17 01:10
will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	1,474	$24.4K	12,687	12,834	-146	No	+$1	01-30 20:46
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1,284	$23.6K	12,616	12,442	+174	No	+$7	02-24 03:15
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	1,250	$21.9K	11,492	11,287	+205	No	+$28	02-27 20:22
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	1,335	$21.9K	11,355	11,214	+142	No	+$17	03-10 14:54
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2,756	$21.6K	14,002	13,896	+106	No	+$41	03-10 14:36
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	1,322	$21.5K	11,799	11,604	+195	Yes	-$152	02-08 19:55
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	2,188	$20.7K	13,597	13,128	+469	No	+$159	02-08 07:49
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	1,225	$20.7K	10,911	10,918	-7	Yes	+$17	02-27 20:05
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1,238	$19.3K	11,612	11,359	+253	No	+$18	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 260 279	1,213	$19.1K	10,867	10,930	-63	No	-$17	02-10 07:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 17:46:57	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0x56ad95…
05-25 04:35:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x1e20a9…
03-29 03:11:00	will elon musk be richest person on march 31	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x7c1182…
03-29 01:13:38	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	No	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x2be861…
03-28 17:04:33	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xcfe0d2…
03-28 16:55:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x3af60a…
03-28 16:49:29	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x5abf3c…
03-28 16:10:23	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x1a72ab…
03-28 16:08:17	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	7	83¢	$5	0x45d646…
03-28 16:00:37	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xdc0187…
03-28 15:59:25	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x78703f…
03-28 15:59:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x39f8e4…
03-28 15:59:01	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x0f0142…
03-28 15:58:07	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xd1c6bb…
03-28 15:58:03	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xfacd4f…
03-28 15:58:03	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xebf6ba…
03-28 15:58:03	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xe7f7ca…
03-28 15:58:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x59e422…
03-28 15:58:03	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x4e36bc…
03-28 15:58:03	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	No	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x48c554…
03-28 15:56:45	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xe1c3d2…
03-28 15:56:33	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 300 319	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xffa2b5…
03-28 15:55:57	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xa9f26f…
03-28 15:52:25	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 300 319	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xbf6e36…
03-28 15:50:57	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x891828…
03-28 15:49:31	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 300 319	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x9ebbc1…
03-28 15:49:09	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9d1216…
03-28 15:48:33	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3d3658…
03-28 15:46:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xb05f86…
03-28 15:43:15	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc44e29…
03-28 15:43:15	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x1d8b13…
03-28 15:41:19	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x40e9e6…
03-28 15:40:33	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x1b4b01…
03-28 15:37:39	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd65810…
03-28 15:35:29	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x835181…
03-28 15:32:49	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x309c59…
03-28 15:32:25	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xba579c…
03-28 15:26:59	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xfe8fd2…
03-28 15:26:01	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x083e21…
03-28 15:24:55	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xd62534…
03-28 15:24:27	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xab1fd1…
03-28 15:23:09	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x3d9ee0…
03-28 15:19:05	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x392f10…
03-28 15:17:33	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x225ff8…
03-28 15:13:55	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$7	0x1eba30…
03-28 15:11:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x9cba84…
03-28 15:11:03	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf84d92…
03-28 15:09:47	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xf14ffc…
03-28 15:09:47	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	No	SELL	4	98¢	$3	0x213d23…
03-28 15:01:51	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xad5761…
03-28 15:00:17	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 320 339	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x84b35d…
03-28 15:00:11	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x3faf94…
03-28 14:57:15	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x76d41a…
03-28 14:55:35	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 320 339	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9b4cff…
03-28 14:55:05	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdffb34…
03-28 14:54:17	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xa8356c…
03-28 14:53:09	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	8	84¢	$6	0xfaec95…
03-28 14:50:49	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xbfaf2e…
03-28 14:48:23	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0xedb7e4…
03-28 14:44:03	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0xc7b8dd…
03-28 14:42:51	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x072cbb…
03-28 14:42:47	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x3f9528…
03-28 14:42:39	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0x9b8af2…
03-28 14:41:07	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x096666…
03-28 14:39:57	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x7c4aaf…
03-28 14:39:27	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x85f193…
03-28 14:38:47	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xc29fd2…
03-28 14:35:11	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xe4786a…
03-28 14:33:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xe648c8…
03-28 14:32:35	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0x645679…
03-28 14:32:09	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8fe172…
03-28 14:31:39	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x9c1ca4…
03-28 14:31:35	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0xf8f5ba…
03-28 14:28:23	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x4fee15…
03-28 14:28:09	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 380 399	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xe4baf6…
03-28 14:26:39	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x8a0906…
03-28 14:24:45	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa256f3…
03-28 14:20:15	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x1c6809…
03-28 14:18:47	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x38a3a6…
03-28 14:18:09	will elon musk be richest person on march 31	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x79c952…
03-28 14:17:39	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xdf0716…
03-28 14:17:37	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$7	0x220191…
03-28 14:17:13	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0xa64049…
03-28 14:17:05	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x1f302b…
03-28 14:17:01	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x4295e1…
03-28 14:16:47	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x3cefb3…
03-28 14:16:17	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xe3322f…
03-28 14:16:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x44a9c0…
03-28 14:15:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 480 499	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x729407…
03-28 14:13:47	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0b29e0…
03-28 14:13:29	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 380 399	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x41c6a2…
03-28 14:11:01	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xc30fe3…
03-28 14:09:41	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x3ff537…
03-28 14:09:31	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xab40c3…
03-28 14:08:25	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 480 499	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x82c46c…
03-28 14:05:55	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xec523e…
03-28 14:04:03	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x75575b…
03-28 14:04:03	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x05bf3b…
03-28 14:03:19	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x96732c…
03-28 14:01:53	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xc0c67d…