Well-Informed-Haversack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

1.8%

Resolved

Trades

13,592

lifetime

Volume

$294.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-05

last 07-11 21:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

48% 0% $-2

Politics

37% 25% +$16

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

7% 0% $-2

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 468 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		+0	$0	97¢	$0	$-0	07-07 10:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	551	$14.4K	7,362	7,429	-67	open	—	04-25 06:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	414	$9.2K	4,678	4,806	-128	open	—	05-29 19:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	352	$9.0K	4,632	4,576	+56	open	—	05-27 14:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	273	$7.2K	3,727	3,727	+0	open	—	04-06 19:43
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	316	$6.8K	3,460	3,466	-7	open	—	06-14 02:58
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	247	$6.2K	3,173	3,214	-42	open	—	04-14 07:32
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	244	$6.2K	3,157	3,157	-0	open	—	04-27 11:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	329	$6.0K	3,069	3,090	-21	open	—	05-19 23:58
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	286	$5.5K	2,814	2,814	+0	No	$-2	04-22 16:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	223	$5.0K	2,543	2,543	+0	open	—	06-28 22:30
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	238	$4.7K	2,369	2,433	-64	open	—	05-30 01:37
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	181	$4.3K	2,220	2,220	+0	open	—	04-27 12:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	192	$4.3K	2,177	2,206	-29	open	—	05-29 18:38
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	232	$4.2K	2,166	2,166	+0	open	—	06-26 18:00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	211	$4.1K	2,120	2,120	+0	open	—	04-21 03:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	172	$4.1K	2,058	2,108	-50	open	—	04-30 13:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	160	$4.1K	2,083	2,083	-0	open	—	04-29 21:34
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	161	$4.0K	2,078	2,078	+0	open	—	04-07 21:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	159	$3.9K	1,975	1,975	+0	open	—	04-21 22:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	150	$3.9K	1,981	1,981	+0	open	—	04-27 14:33
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	129	$3.8K	1,947	1,947	+0	open	—	04-15 22:06
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	157	$3.8K	1,907	1,907	+0	No	$-1	04-25 07:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	129	$3.7K	1,935	1,866	+69	open	—	06-16 12:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	140	$3.7K	1,853	1,887	-34	open	—	04-14 07:15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	129	$3.7K	1,879	1,879	+0	open	—	04-23 17:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	180	$3.6K	1,836	1,809	+27	open	—	05-23 07:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	153	$3.2K	1,649	1,609	+40	open	—	05-29 20:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	188	$3.2K	1,646	1,628	+18	open	—	06-22 08:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	140	$3.0K	1,538	1,492	+46	open	—	05-13 21:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	181	$2.9K	1,523	1,506	+18	open	—	05-10 17:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 21:20:14	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x9bc626…
07-11 21:09:28	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	285	50¢	$142	0xffc7b6…
07-11 08:33:55	wta muchova noskova 2026 07 11 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	146	66¢	$96	0x68d9ea…
07-11 08:15:41	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x845627…
07-10 20:10:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x0c260f…
07-10 19:54:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xca1a3a…
07-10 19:51:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6ec060…
07-10 19:14:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x0e21de…
07-10 18:47:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x882085…
07-10 18:40:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x44254b…
07-10 18:27:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xbdd4f6…
07-10 18:27:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x570035…
07-10 18:27:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x4a9687…
07-10 18:25:31	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0x3a2c5e…
07-10 18:25:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	98¢	$32	0x5e3273…
07-10 18:25:05	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0x5d901b…
07-10 18:24:53	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	97¢	$32	0xaa4a05…
07-10 18:08:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	16	97¢	$16	0xf77bd9…
07-10 17:55:02	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0xb739be…
07-10 17:54:53	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x12b7dd…
07-10 17:30:28	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x2c893b…
07-10 17:29:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xb921b7…
07-10 17:13:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x8d07e1…
07-10 16:55:46	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x683421…
07-10 16:29:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x7b9e13…
07-10 16:27:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0x5d52bc…
07-10 16:14:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0xab2843…
07-10 15:38:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0xc7ab22…
07-10 15:34:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x761566…
07-10 15:28:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x060761…
07-10 15:25:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x846ca9…
07-10 14:56:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x492717…
07-10 14:56:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xfc2823…
07-10 14:55:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x3f7d04…
07-10 14:55:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x4ca169…
07-10 14:52:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x16f05e…
07-10 14:21:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x8246e8…
07-10 13:51:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd50a13…
07-10 13:21:53	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x49b54e…
07-10 13:20:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x99dc26…
07-10 13:13:46	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6dc4c3…
07-10 13:05:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x58084a…
07-10 12:50:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xfbb066…
07-10 12:46:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x690d5f…
07-10 12:38:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xe013ec…
07-10 12:13:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x6a92c0…
07-10 12:10:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xbb2611…
07-10 11:52:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0xf2e53c…
07-10 11:31:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	18	97¢	$18	0x3968c9…
07-10 11:04:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x7bea41…
07-10 10:21:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0x124b00…
07-10 10:03:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xf63c18…
07-10 10:00:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0f71a1…
07-10 09:06:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xe0aea7…
07-10 09:05:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0xae9c67…
07-10 08:53:50	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xf08af8…
07-10 05:23:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0xde002a…
07-10 05:13:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x7e8f3b…
07-10 04:57:49	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x7be40e…
07-10 04:57:32	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0xabb95c…
07-10 04:22:05	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x2390bd…
07-10 04:19:28	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6b01f0…
07-10 04:15:34	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x85ced5…
07-10 04:06:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x609cee…
07-10 03:54:44	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x89f816…
07-10 03:47:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xb4af10…
07-10 03:24:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x1bebd7…
07-10 03:16:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0x541e92…
07-10 03:05:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0xbbd180…
07-10 03:01:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x937ab6…
07-10 02:35:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0xcc3243…
07-10 02:27:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xd9275e…
07-10 02:16:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0x6933e1…
07-10 01:55:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0xa6c783…
07-10 01:35:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x10c04d…
07-10 01:17:34	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xfe12bd…
07-10 01:16:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x4256e5…
07-10 01:15:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0x30558b…
07-10 01:01:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x604eb2…
07-10 00:46:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x2636a3…
07-09 23:47:22	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xe59721…
07-09 23:01:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0x78f131…
07-09 22:33:32	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x91b4f8…
07-09 22:33:13	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x137cc9…
07-09 21:37:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x54805e…
07-09 20:51:58	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xf10255…
07-09 18:31:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x942b16…
07-09 18:24:22	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x650eb2…
07-09 18:04:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x39ca4a…
07-09 17:27:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7e24c0…
07-09 17:02:04	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xc9d4ac…
07-09 16:51:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x630f9c…
07-09 16:02:11	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0x3accd4…
07-09 15:32:13	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xef0655…
07-09 15:21:29	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0x917b7f…
07-09 14:20:02	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xb46331…
07-09 14:18:16	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0xa24c14…
07-09 12:43:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xb62292…
07-09 11:56:23	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x756ed4…
07-09 11:19:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0xe98f64…