Well-Informed-Haversack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$149

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

11.5%

Resolved

531

Trades

18,584

lifetime

Volume

$394.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 07-11 21:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

41% 37% +$26

Politics

32% 29% -$89

Sports

20% 45% -$70

Crypto

7% 27% -$16

Tech

0% 67% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-11).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+0	$1	99¢	$0	-$1	06-25 21:25
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	$0	05-03 20:58
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	$0	05-21 14:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	551	$14.4K	7,362	7,429	-67	No	-$6	04-25 06:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	450	$10.0K	5,117	5,117	+0	No	-$3	05-29 19:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	363	$9.3K	4,752	4,752	+0	Yes	-$1	05-27 14:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	401	$8.5K	4,369	4,369	+0	No	-$2	06-14 02:58
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	368	$8.4K	4,309	4,308	+0	No	-$1	07-09 21:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	273	$7.2K	3,727	3,727	+0	Yes	-$3	04-06 19:43
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	312	$7.0K	3,567	3,567	+0	No	-$3	05-13 07:15
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	367	$6.9K	3,506	3,506	+0	No	-$2	05-08 04:21
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	279	$6.4K	3,270	3,269	+0	No	$0	07-06 02:47
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	247	$6.2K	3,173	3,214	-42	No	-$4	04-14 07:32
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	244	$6.2K	3,157	3,157	-0	No	-$3	04-27 11:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	329	$6.0K	3,069	3,090	-21	No	-$3	05-19 23:58
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	221	$5.9K	3,004	3,004	+0	No	-$2	07-05 21:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	223	$5.0K	2,543	2,543	+0	No	-$1	06-28 22:30
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	245	$4.8K	2,463	2,463	+0	No	-$4	05-30 01:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	195	$4.4K	2,245	2,245	+0	No	-$4	05-29 18:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	157	$4.4K	2,222	2,222	+0	Yes	$0	06-16 12:49
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	195	$4.3K	2,187	2,187	+0	No	-$1	07-04 22:48
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	232	$4.2K	2,166	2,166	+0	No	-$2	06-26 18:00
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	155	$4.2K	2,166	2,166	+0	No	$0	06-29 18:36
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	198	$4.2K	2,159	2,159	+0	No	-$2	05-26 00:28
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	211	$4.1K	2,120	2,120	+0	Yes	$0	04-21 03:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	172	$4.1K	2,058	2,108	-50	No	-$1	04-30 13:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	160	$4.1K	2,083	2,083	-0	No	-$2	04-29 21:34
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	161	$4.0K	2,078	2,078	+0	No	-$6	04-07 21:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	159	$3.9K	1,975	1,975	+0	No	-$1	04-21 22:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	150	$3.9K	1,981	1,981	+0	No	-$2	04-27 14:33
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	129	$3.8K	1,947	1,947	+0	No	-$3	04-15 22:06
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	157	$3.8K	1,907	1,907	+0	No	-$1	04-25 07:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	140	$3.7K	1,853	1,887	-34	No	-$1	04-14 07:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 21:20:14	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x9bc626…
07-11 21:09:28	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	285	50¢	$142	0xffc7b6…
07-11 08:33:55	wta muchova noskova 2026 07 11 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	146	66¢	$96	0x68d9ea…
07-11 08:16:26	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xaaf1ea…
07-11 08:15:47	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x8fc103…
07-11 08:15:41	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x845627…
07-11 08:15:35	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x984b27…
07-10 20:11:07	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x0af3a6…
07-10 20:10:31	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x4526e6…
07-10 20:10:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x0c260f…
07-10 20:08:41	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xec688a…
07-10 20:07:47	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x37718f…
07-10 20:07:20	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xd8cc1d…
07-10 19:57:47	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x685393…
07-10 19:54:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xca1a3a…
07-10 19:53:56	Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7429c1…
07-10 19:51:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6ec060…
07-10 19:35:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xd9d945…
07-10 19:30:16	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xe2f9e4…
07-10 19:16:43	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x2a46ac…
07-10 19:14:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x0e21de…
07-10 18:47:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x882085…
07-10 18:40:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x44254b…
07-10 18:27:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xbdd4f6…
07-10 18:27:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x570035…
07-10 18:27:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x4a9687…
07-10 18:25:31	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0x3a2c5e…
07-10 18:25:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	98¢	$32	0x5e3273…
07-10 18:25:05	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0x5d901b…
07-10 18:24:53	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	97¢	$32	0xaa4a05…
07-10 18:08:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	16	97¢	$16	0xf77bd9…
07-10 17:55:02	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$32	0xb739be…
07-10 17:54:53	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x12b7dd…
07-10 17:30:28	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x2c893b…
07-10 17:29:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xb921b7…
07-10 17:13:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x8d07e1…
07-10 16:55:46	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x683421…
07-10 16:29:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x7b9e13…
07-10 16:27:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0x5d52bc…
07-10 16:14:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0xab2843…
07-10 15:58:55	Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xb8c0db…
07-10 15:40:04	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$17	0x77c212…
07-10 15:38:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0xc7ab22…
07-10 15:34:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x761566…
07-10 15:29:11	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xccde94…
07-10 15:28:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x060761…
07-10 15:25:50	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2f47c7…
07-10 15:25:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x846ca9…
07-10 14:56:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x492717…
07-10 14:56:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xfc2823…
07-10 14:55:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x3f7d04…
07-10 14:55:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x4ca169…
07-10 14:52:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x16f05e…
07-10 14:21:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x8246e8…
07-10 13:56:29	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xec6233…
07-10 13:51:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd50a13…
07-10 13:36:19	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xbca1db…
07-10 13:36:17	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x05f3a0…
07-10 13:32:13	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x8339ed…
07-10 13:21:53	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x49b54e…
07-10 13:20:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x99dc26…
07-10 13:13:46	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6dc4c3…
07-10 13:05:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x58084a…
07-10 12:55:02	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc12c69…
07-10 12:50:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xfbb066…
07-10 12:49:29	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdbd9ad…
07-10 12:48:58	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf59eb3…
07-10 12:48:26	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x13cd9c…
07-10 12:47:53	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xd50479…
07-10 12:46:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x690d5f…
07-10 12:38:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xe013ec…
07-10 12:33:37	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x113197…
07-10 12:33:16	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x41cb20…
07-10 12:33:14	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x29c142…
07-10 12:13:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x6a92c0…
07-10 12:12:52	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x1d1289…
07-10 12:10:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xbb2611…
07-10 11:52:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0xf2e53c…
07-10 11:31:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	18	97¢	$18	0x3968c9…
07-10 11:04:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x7bea41…
07-10 10:43:08	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd53eb7…
07-10 10:42:26	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x71265b…
07-10 10:21:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0x124b00…
07-10 10:03:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xf63c18…
07-10 10:00:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0f71a1…
07-10 09:22:32	Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x41ac5b…
07-10 09:19:25	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd2fcf3…
07-10 09:18:46	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x234667…
07-10 09:13:32	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6a5325…
07-10 09:12:55	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xa96140…
07-10 09:12:17	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x111405…
07-10 09:10:34	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x42fd78…
07-10 09:08:11	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x01fb48…
07-10 09:06:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xe0aea7…
07-10 09:05:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0xae9c67…
07-10 08:53:50	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xf08af8…
07-10 08:37:07	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x671994…
07-10 08:36:32	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x97fe73…
07-10 08:35:05	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x8402dc…
07-10 08:28:59	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x342fcf…