Clever-Millstone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$54

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

48.1%

Resolved

Trades

290

lifetime

Volume

$661

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 10-26 20:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

58% 29% -$39

Politics

41% 30% -$7

Crypto

2% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+12	$7	66¢	$8	+$1	10-23 00:11
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+43	$10	16¢	$7	-$3	06-11 22:49
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	68¢	$5	+$0	09-22 00:30
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+15	$2	22¢	$3	+$1	09-22 00:25
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$3	68¢	$3	+$0	10-06 23:41
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+13	$2	15¢	$2	$0	09-22 18:19
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+3	$1	44¢	$1	+$0	09-24 17:27
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	42¢	$1	$0	09-22 00:29
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-36	-$1	2¢	$-1	+$0	10-17 20:34
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	+8	$5	6¢	$1	-$4	10-24 06:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	9	$72	132	132	+0	No	-$36	03-09 01:33
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	5	$71	84	10	+74	Under	+$4	09-21 07:32
Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	6	$60	106	0	+106	open	—	10-26 20:49
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	14	$24	147	147	+0	Yes	+$2	03-08 20:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	4	$20	27	27	+1	Yes	+$2	04-24 16:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	3	$18	24	24	+0	Yes	-$14	04-17 15:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	7	$14	44	17	+27	No	+$8	04-25 18:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	4	$12	14	14	+0	No	+$8	04-24 16:04
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	6	$12	41	41	+0	No	-$7	04-12 19:11
Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	2	$12	26	13	+13	Yes	+$23	09-20 16:53
Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	5	$12	28	28	+0	No	+$2	09-20 15:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	2	$12	10	10	+0	No	+$6	04-19 11:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$10	65	53	+12	Yes	+$2	01-31 21:27
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$10	43	0	+43	open	—	06-11 22:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$9	65	65	+0	Yes	-$7	04-07 23:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$9	11	11	+0	Yes	-$1	06-12 18:30
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$9	9	9	+0	No	+$3	04-22 18:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3	$8	39	0	+39	Yes	-$8	06-14 21:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	4	$8	22	0	+22	Yes	-$8	06-14 21:35
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	6	$7	33	25	+8	open	—	10-24 06:15
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	4	$7	2	27	-24	No	+$5	09-20 16:56
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	6	$7	26	26	+0	Under	+$4	09-20 22:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	1	$7	12	0	+12	open	—	10-23 00:11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	2	$7	4	4	+0	SPD	+$1	09-06 20:57
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26)	2	$6	10	0	+10	Yes	-$6	04-20 19:27
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	1	$6	35	0	+35	open	—	10-26 10:33
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	5	$6	20	4	+16	No	+$7	04-20 14:14
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	4	$5	43	43	+0	No	-$4	03-22 17:38
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	4	$5	12	6	+6	No	-$5	09-06 18:39
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	1	$5	30	0	+30	open	—	10-26 20:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:49:21	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	No	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x713988…
10-26 20:49:09	Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	No	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xf5362c…
10-26 10:33:03	Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	No	BUY	35	16¢	$6	0x944b3f…
10-24 08:37:27	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	No	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0x2ceb00…
10-24 06:15:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x6376dc…
10-23 23:18:03	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x46a314…
10-23 17:52:57	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x7d3583…
10-23 13:57:24	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf97029…
10-23 13:33:23	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x3790de…
10-23 06:45:02	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x0d8897…
10-23 06:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x2b6a29…
10-23 00:11:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x509d65…
10-21 22:18:54	Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?	No	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x0097ed…
10-20 14:09:09	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x4b39ae…
10-20 06:40:38	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd32897…
10-17 20:34:30	Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0x5e8254…
10-17 20:34:09	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0xd69035…
10-09 23:18:25	Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x370ddc…
10-06 23:41:07	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xb97a74…
10-06 10:30:39	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdf7f63…
10-06 10:30:10	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x86b7d5…
10-06 10:29:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xf1ecff…
09-27 23:20:24	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x57f064…
09-26 15:23:59	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x3e8132…
09-24 23:17:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 23:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x8ea319…
09-24 23:16:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x134907…
09-24 17:27:45	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x363919…
09-24 15:04:09	Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x943061…
09-23 16:06:19	Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xdce027…
09-22 18:19:34	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xae10e7…
09-22 18:16:55	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x2afae7…
09-22 00:32:54	Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0xccd692…
09-22 00:32:48	Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf5c58d…
09-22 00:30:22	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x2697ac…
09-22 00:29:30	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x11f782…
09-22 00:25:42	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xfbe4d2…
09-21 07:34:03	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xe8844b…
09-21 07:32:33	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	Under	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x28b1b0…
09-21 07:31:20	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	Under	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x36fd4a…
09-20 22:45:29	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x08e1b4…
09-20 22:25:02	Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x222ea6…
09-20 22:24:35	Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0xf4c029…
09-20 22:24:13	Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xc5e8ed…
09-20 22:23:32	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xf22d48…
09-20 22:23:23	Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xa65d99…
09-20 22:22:38	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xff8270…
09-20 21:09:52	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	Over	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x4d950e…
09-20 20:24:10	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5f179a…
09-20 20:23:32	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd1a06b…
09-20 20:20:55	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	Over	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x841256…
09-20 19:56:04	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	Over	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x0e77f3…
09-20 19:53:56	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xb80edb…
09-20 19:49:13	Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Yes	SELL	57	1¢	$1	0x47d3dd…
09-20 19:46:04	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x706203…
09-20 19:26:01	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xe8cf4c…
09-20 19:23:31	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xad3e3b…
09-20 19:21:02	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	SELL	5	95¢	$4	0x4ac4b6…
09-20 19:19:47	Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xeb5cae…
09-20 18:23:45	Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xfbc8aa…
09-20 18:12:09	Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0x06ae63…
09-20 18:08:48	Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xa7f27e…
09-20 17:35:27	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xa61dc5…
09-20 17:33:30	Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xf9c76c…
09-20 17:26:01	Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x85a3f0…
09-20 16:56:21	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x6a61dc…
09-20 16:54:42	Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xeede49…
09-20 16:53:54	Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x0a6ea6…
09-20 16:43:07	Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$0	0xc01a2a…
09-20 16:36:33	Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa75e10…
09-20 16:30:24	Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xea2d53…
09-20 16:06:31	Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x616cbd…
09-20 16:02:16	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	CDU	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x213756…
09-20 16:00:06	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 11%?	Under	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xd5e7a3…
09-20 15:58:01	Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5977e2…
09-20 15:52:03	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xcb7722…
09-20 15:51:01	Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc1bce0…
09-20 15:50:36	Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x2353c5…
09-20 15:50:13	Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	28	24¢	$7	0x9bcf59…
09-20 15:49:34	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	CDU	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa3fd8c…
09-20 15:49:09	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x8c5cbb…
09-20 15:48:43	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0x6de4a6…
09-20 15:35:00	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	CDU	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x317366…
09-20 15:23:48	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x293bec…
09-20 14:41:15	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3c2b5c…
09-20 14:29:52	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc59169…
09-20 14:23:24	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc66567…
09-20 08:21:35	Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Yes	BUY	57	2¢	$1	0xb309d6…
09-19 23:01:30	Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?	No	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x0ef3a3…
09-19 23:00:25	Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?	No	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x9f2960…
09-19 22:49:13	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x5b38af…
09-14 19:40:25	Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x0d71f7…
09-13 20:46:58	Will Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election?	No	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x2c9746…
09-12 12:58:39	Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1ec546…
09-11 16:04:10	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf3f98c…
09-11 16:03:45	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x373c80…
09-11 16:00:33	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x27c540…
09-08 21:25:45	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xfe8de8…
09-07 23:48:13	Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe3c4d4…
09-07 23:45:10	Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?	No	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x21281a…
09-07 23:44:10	Will Dennis Weilmann win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x005235…