Knobby-Sake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$175

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

21.0%

Resolved

126

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$31.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$208

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-05 07:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 96% +$1

Sports

26% 0% -$16

Other

16% 93% +$188

Politics

13% 67% +$2

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-11	-$10	97¢	$-11	$0	09-15 07:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	2	$4.2K	2,116	2,116	+0	No	-$2	01-31 07:41
will ethereum dip to 2200 in january 2026 518	2	$4.2K	2,114	2,101	+13	No	-$2	01-31 08:08
will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	3	$4.2K	2,099	2,099	+0	No	-$2	02-03 02:07
ethereum above 3000 on january 31	2	$4.1K	2,076	2,070	+6	No	+$0	01-31 09:12
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$4.1K	2,072	2,072	+0	No	-$2	02-03 02:07
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	9	$4.1K	2,065	2,065	+0	No	-$2	02-03 02:07
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	3	$4.1K	2,056	2,056	+0	No	-$2	02-03 02:06
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	1	$177	316	0	+316	Yes	+$139	07-02 02:56
will bitcoin dip to 50k july 20 26 2026	1	$135	135	0	+135	No	+$0	07-23 04:35
will xrp reach 2pt8 in july 2026	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	07-23 04:35
Will Tencent be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	2	$119	111	8	+103	No	+$0	09-29 02:25
will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	1	$111	111	0	+111	No	+$0	08-21 03:27
will xauusd dip to 3850 by october 5 2026	1	$103	103	0	+103	No	+$0	10-05 07:48
will bitcoin dip to 54k june 15 21 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-20 06:14
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	1	$75	124	0	+124	Yes	+$48	06-19 04:04
will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	07-23 04:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$43	25	25	+0	No	+$3	01-20 06:04
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in february 2026	2	$42	21	21	+0	No	$0	02-10 06:56
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	05-01 03:28
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	01-20 06:04
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$31	18	18	+0	Yes	+$0	02-10 06:56
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-01 03:27
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$29	0	29	-29	No	$0	01-13 02:25
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$27	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	01-26 01:27
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 20 39	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	+$0	01-27 03:37
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	01-27 03:37
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	05-13 09:06
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$22	11	11	+0	No	$0	02-03 02:06
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-10 03:41
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	05-13 09:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 07:48:26	will xauusd dip to 3850 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xcdf1cf…
09-29 02:25:05	Will Tencent be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x890686…
09-15 07:39:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xff15a9…
09-08 03:03:15	Will Tencent be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x88e034…
08-21 03:27:45	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xe9c45a…
08-03 03:50:06	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x707c24…
08-03 03:49:56	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x073345…
08-03 03:49:47	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x527bbc…
07-23 04:35:39	will xrp reach 2pt8 in july 2026	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xab5bee…
07-23 04:35:06	will bitcoin dip to 50k july 20 26 2026	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0xf9150d…
07-23 04:34:18	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9ca7a6…
07-02 02:59:14	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x251cbb…
07-02 02:56:13	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	316	56¢	$177	0xdcf15c…
06-20 06:15:25	bitcoin above 58k on june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xef20a8…
06-20 06:15:13	bitcoin above 60k on june 20 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfff5da…
06-20 06:14:53	will bitcoin dip to 54k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb1c071…
06-19 04:04:16	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	124	61¢	$75	0xdf4441…
06-10 03:42:09	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in june 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfacfd8…
06-10 03:41:52	will solana reach 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xebd233…
06-10 03:41:27	will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa9ee85…
06-10 03:41:01	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x9ee2a3…
06-10 03:40:45	bitcoin above 50k on june 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x110b6b…
06-10 03:40:30	bitcoin above 50k on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0885c9…
06-10 03:40:15	bitcoin above 54k on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xa00a4b…
06-10 03:39:46	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x83761e…
05-23 06:29:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0xa5bddb…
05-23 06:29:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xcf43b4…
05-23 06:28:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfc94bc…
05-23 06:28:07	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb60efe…
05-18 02:16:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5df304…
05-18 02:16:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbec2ab…
05-18 02:16:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb2b257…
05-18 02:15:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x07fb94…
05-13 09:06:47	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xee6915…
05-13 09:06:32	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x03cc8d…
05-13 09:06:07	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x174a9e…
05-13 09:05:50	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xe3fef7…
05-13 09:05:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5d4c84…
05-13 09:04:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf5a0dc…
05-13 09:04:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2fed21…
05-01 03:28:22	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x59a00e…
05-01 03:27:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd561d1…
04-09 01:48:53	bitcoin above 58k on april 11	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe1ba75…
04-09 01:48:33	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 215 239	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe8475d…
04-09 01:48:21	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 540 559	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x768695…
04-09 01:48:09	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 480 499	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x35c5ee…
04-03 02:04:17	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf45f27…
04-03 02:04:05	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x88fc53…
04-03 02:03:33	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x610674…
04-03 02:03:23	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2985a9…
04-03 02:03:03	elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 240plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf77b5b…
04-03 02:02:43	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 580plus	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb14ab7…
04-03 02:02:29	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 500 519	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd1ce94…
04-01 03:30:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 420 439	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x487b0e…
04-01 03:30:03	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 240plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4ebd28…
04-01 03:29:55	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 140 164	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3b3d40…
04-01 03:29:47	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on april 2	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9a5e2b…
04-01 03:29:41	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 1	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x85d244…
04-01 03:29:29	bitcoin above 56k on april 3	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1b4f48…
04-01 03:29:21	bitcoin above 80k on april 2	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x54b5e2…
04-01 03:29:13	bitcoin above 74k on april 1	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc5edc0…
03-29 02:22:30	will bitcoin dip to 54k march 23 29	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7bd2a9…
03-29 02:22:16	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 31	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x572813…
03-29 02:22:08	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 30	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xea6c45…
03-29 02:21:58	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 29	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x08f8b3…
03-29 02:21:42	bitcoin above 80k on march 31	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3b3b92…
03-29 02:21:30	bitcoin above 78k on march 30	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x333de7…
03-29 02:21:20	bitcoin above 72k on march 29	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe71760…
03-21 03:20:37	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 580plus	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7e82b6…
03-21 03:20:21	will bitcoin reach 86k march 16 22	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xaab63b…
03-21 03:20:05	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on march 23	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x7b1104…
03-21 03:19:53	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 80000 on march 22	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5cb145…
03-21 03:19:37	bitcoin above 84k on march 23	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb7d8eb…
03-21 03:19:27	bitcoin above 82k on march 22	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8a8c70…
03-21 03:19:17	bitcoin above 76k on march 21	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb3a16e…
03-10 02:09:23	will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on march 10	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xcdd6fd…
03-10 02:09:01	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on march 11	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6c0e4b…
03-10 02:08:55	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 10	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x76b1ff…
03-10 02:08:21	bitcoin above 58k on march 13	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x22334c…
03-10 02:08:15	bitcoin above 82k on march 12	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa621e8…
03-10 02:08:07	bitcoin above 84k on march 11	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x55a2fc…
03-10 02:07:59	bitcoin above 74k on march 10	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xaa6fba…
03-02 02:54:05	nba nop lac 2026 03 01	Pelicans	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x929322…
03-02 02:53:47	nba phi bos 2026 03 01	76ers	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7cd982…
03-02 02:53:35	nba okc dal 2026 03 01	Mavericks	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf3474b…
03-02 02:51:13	will opinion launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xacd935…
03-02 02:50:37	will the price of ethereum be less than 1400 on march 2	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8b7f1d…
03-02 02:50:23	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8afae6…
03-02 02:50:07	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc92d1f…
03-02 02:50:07	ethereum above 1400 on march 3	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc5f85f…
03-02 02:50:05	will ethereum dip to 1700 february 23 march 1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8776dd…
03-02 02:49:37	will the price of bitcoin be less than 56000 on march 2	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5383a1…
03-02 02:49:27	bitcoin above 54k on march 3	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1f153c…
03-02 02:49:17	will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x12ebfa…
03-02 02:49:09	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x330ce2…
03-02 02:48:59	solana above 110 on march 3	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf4a6bd…
03-02 02:48:49	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7473bf…
03-02 02:48:19	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x6991c4…
02-10 07:02:03	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x1bc4da…
02-10 07:01:41	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 580plus	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd83bb4…