Competent-Biosphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$45.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$61

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

1,024

Trades

27,550

lifetime

Volume

$3.65M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$132

Open exposure

$153

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 10-28 04:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

100% 54% +$45,109

Sports

0% 55% +$38

Politics

0% 44% -$12

Tech

0% 0% -$12

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No		+153	$89	95¢	$145	+$56	10-26 02:27
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes		+153	$2	5¢	$8	+$6	10-27 01:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lol hle1 g2 2026 07 05	197	$100.4K	57,622	57,622	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$1,535	07-05 08:35
lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	142	$60.4K	41,521	41,521	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$3,759	07-11 10:33
lol ly fur 2026 07 03	162	$50.2K	29,086	29,086	+0	LYON	+$989	07-04 05:45
lol blg hle1 2026 07 09	126	$49.2K	39,758	39,758	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$688	07-09 11:01
lol kc dk 2026 07 19	106	$42.4K	27,160	27,160	+0	Dplus KIA	+$1,295	07-19 14:49
lol tsw tes 2026 07 04	114	$40.4K	25,894	25,894	+0	Team Secret Whales	-$860	07-05 05:20
lol t1 kt 2026 07 29	162	$39.3K	27,521	27,521	+0	KT Rolster	+$627	07-29 11:49
lol g2 t1 2026 07 08	136	$38.3K	33,259	33,259	+0	G2 Esports	-$712	07-08 07:35
lol dcg tl2 2026 06 29	86	$38.1K	22,829	17,627	+5,202	Team Liquid	+$212	06-29 07:55
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs	254	$37.6K	29,426	26,687	+2,739	Legacy	+$1,691	05-24 08:41
lol blg lgd 2026 07 29	91	$37.5K	23,609	23,609	+0	Bilibili Gaming	-$50	07-29 13:07
lol al blg 2026 06 08	110	$35.6K	28,351	28,351	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$1,846	06-08 11:02
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	203	$32.6K	40,597	40,006	+590	Hanwha Life Esports	-$318	05-26 09:27
lol g2 ly 2026 07 10	161	$31.7K	45,398	45,398	+0	LYON	-$660	07-10 10:37
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	91	$31.1K	17,717	18,491	-774	Gen.G	+$948	05-22 11:44
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	135	$29.7K	15,406	15,884	-477	Gen.G	+$421	05-14 09:28
lol jdg blg 2026 06 06	231	$25.5K	28,300	13,999	+14,301	Bilibili Gaming	+$582	06-06 12:48
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	86	$25.5K	18,456	12,376	+6,079	T1	+$553	05-28 12:30
lol we blg 2026 07 31	34	$24.9K	13,910	13,910	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$475	07-31 10:36
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	143	$24.5K	16,524	16,547	-23	T1	+$776	05-16 09:51
lol drx ns 2026 07 29	110	$24.1K	15,228	15,228	+0	Nongshim Red Force	+$759	07-29 09:28
lol al lgd 2026 07 24	82	$22.9K	21,502	21,502	+0	Anyone's Legend	+$1,191	07-24 08:39
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	147	$21.5K	19,596	19,595	+1	Gen.G	+$4,307	05-27 09:44
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	76	$21.5K	13,323	13,415	-93	Hanwha Life Esports	-$828	05-10 11:36
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	106	$21.3K	18,814	21,718	-2,904	Team WE	-$1,683	06-01 10:45
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	102	$21.1K	18,375	17,157	+1,218	FURIA	+$648	05-12 13:24
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	126	$20.9K	14,672	14,514	+158	BNK FEARX	+$1,752	05-16 13:04
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	175	$20.3K	14,149	15,306	-1,157	HANJIN BRION	+$542	05-03 09:40
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	81	$20.1K	79,156	64,385	+14,771	Bilibili Gaming	+$283	06-03 15:08
lol hle1 dk 2026 07 30	93	$19.7K	18,225	18,225	+0	Dplus KIA	+$129	07-30 11:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:09:14	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $11M?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x2d6ce8…
10-27 01:37:23	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	35¢	$12	0xb763d6…
10-26 13:40:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x20a771…
10-26 13:34:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	45	74¢	$33	0xfff87d…
10-26 13:14:26	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	118	10¢	$11	0x69a482…
10-26 13:14:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x4f54d3…
10-26 13:14:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0x20afff…
10-26 13:11:54	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xfd98dc…
10-26 13:08:53	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0xdb52fa…
10-26 05:29:27	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x714d12…
10-26 05:29:23	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xe6c1d5…
10-26 02:31:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	11	77¢	$9	0xf80c67…
10-26 02:28:57	Will William Contreras lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x3b3333…
10-26 02:27:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	153	58¢	$89	0xdc4224…
10-26 02:26:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	150	78¢	$116	0x8a5bed…
10-26 02:24:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	171	3¢	$5	0xebc3fe…
10-26 02:21:09	Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 2.5% and 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x45161c…
10-26 02:21:00	Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 1.5% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xf06d27…
10-26 02:20:41	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xb2e491…
10-26 02:16:20	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 102.50 in October?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xeb2c28…
10-26 02:00:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	42¢	$125	0xcc054d…
10-26 01:59:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	180	62¢	$111	0x039284…
10-26 01:59:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	115	72¢	$83	0x451ce7…
10-26 01:53:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	207	42¢	$86	0x0a0eff…
10-26 01:52:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	207	76¢	$157	0x5817a2…
10-26 01:52:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	42¢	$53	0x00b2cb…
10-26 01:51:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	115	77¢	$89	0xc10beb…
10-26 01:51:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	12	78¢	$9	0xcd2d9f…
10-26 01:37:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	42¢	$76	0x30ddb0…
10-26 01:37:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	180	59¢	$106	0x7887a3…
10-26 01:21:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0x373492…
10-25 12:41:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-36 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x04d04e…
10-25 12:33:57	Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0xef3ebf…
10-25 12:28:24	Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x1e12b3…
10-25 10:05:14	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 19?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xb42f35…
10-25 10:05:06	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xa48aef…
10-25 10:03:33	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xcb9ff3…
10-25 09:50:51	Will Paul Choi win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x5fb46f…
10-25 09:48:39	Will Paul Choi win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	31	92¢	$29	0x666bf6…
10-25 09:47:23	Will Paul Choi win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xe7f127…
10-25 09:39:35	Will Paul Choi win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x264a56…
10-25 09:35:05	Will Paul Choi win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xea74d1…
10-25 09:30:06	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xfff346…
10-25 09:30:02	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x3b0369…
10-25 09:29:48	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x94fe46…
10-25 09:29:42	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x39445b…
10-25 09:28:32	Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027?	No	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x8407c5…
10-25 09:27:35	Will "Big Walk" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x9560be…
10-25 09:27:27	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xb31968…
10-25 09:27:09	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x124fda…
10-25 09:24:33	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-10 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xfd7f55…
10-25 09:23:50	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x6a8833…
10-25 09:23:44	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x40385f…
10-25 09:20:54	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x2bb1ab…
10-25 04:10:27	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xc11393…
10-25 03:13:23	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xda3073…
10-25 02:15:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0xec5117…
10-25 02:14:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x68ae7d…
10-25 02:02:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	35¢	$32	0x54b22b…
10-25 01:58:23	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0xb3ece2…
10-25 01:57:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	7¢	$6	0x66712c…
10-25 01:55:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	115	74¢	$85	0x912318…
10-25 01:54:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	550	75¢	$415	0x168789…
10-25 01:54:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	753	32¢	$242	0xe54748…
10-25 01:44:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	140	29¢	$41	0x3afe0f…
10-25 01:40:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	199	8¢	$15	0x2b7eb0…
10-25 01:38:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x053942…
10-24 13:46:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xe4913e…
10-24 13:45:03	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x38614c…
10-24 13:44:51	Will Keisha Lance Bottoms run 6 to 9 points behind Jon Ossoff?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x1058e1…
10-24 13:44:08	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4f0420…
10-24 13:43:57	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x3f8308…
10-24 13:43:20	Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x8e37c7…
10-24 13:41:09	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x8f7b7b…
10-24 13:40:51	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by October 31?	Yes	SELL	34	12¢	$4	0x1e2539…
10-24 13:40:33	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xa7a423…
10-24 13:37:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	24¢	$33	0x8264f2…
10-24 13:33:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0x1dd07d…
10-24 13:33:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	314	5¢	$16	0xc4dc7c…
10-24 13:31:54	Will PPI YoY be 6.7% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xe0b616…
10-24 13:31:36	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x47f486…
10-24 13:29:51	Will Michal Uherčík win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x620b96…
10-24 13:23:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0xb56702…
10-24 13:21:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	6¢	$2	0x91a912…
10-24 13:21:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	966	5¢	$45	0x05e210…
10-24 13:19:38	Anthropic commits shares to Trump Accounts by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xd4e423…
10-24 13:17:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xee2dae…
10-24 12:51:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x66b045…
10-24 12:49:15	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0x038377…
10-24 12:45:11	Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x695df5…
10-24 12:45:05	Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x196116…
10-24 12:15:26	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x761c66…
10-24 12:15:23	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x98b48a…
10-24 12:14:29	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x51149f…
10-24 12:14:26	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xb215eb…
10-24 12:07:29	Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 46% to 48%?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xbef67b…
10-24 04:16:26	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xb2eae9…
10-24 04:13:02	Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x37ed0e…
10-24 04:12:33	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-06 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0x3a4ff9…
10-24 04:12:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xadbecc…