Well-Off-Activist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$54

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

Trades

186

lifetime

Volume

$3.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$67

1 position

First seen

2026-04-03

last 07-02 20:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% — —

Crypto

35% 60% $-54

Politics

10% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO dissolves before 2027?	No		+69	$66	97¢	$67	+$1	06-15 05:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	4	$130	105	105	+0	Down	+$10	05-09 04:45
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	2	$128	66	66	+0	open	—	06-18 04:57
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	3	$124	64	64	+0	open	—	06-16 05:18
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	2	$120	64	64	+0	open	—	06-25 11:01
US recession by end of 2026?	2	$119	67	67	+0	open	—	06-27 05:14
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	3	$115	62	62	+0	open	—	06-20 06:33
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	2	$114	60	60	+0	open	—	07-02 20:16
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	2	$113	60	60	+0	open	—	06-20 06:33
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$112	60	60	+0	open	—	06-16 05:18
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	2	$112	60	60	+0	open	—	06-19 05:39
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	2	$112	63	63	+0	open	—	06-30 15:34
Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?	2	$112	59	59	+0	open	—	07-01 13:55
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	2	$109	59	59	+0	open	—	06-29 04:49
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	2	$107	60	60	+0	open	—	06-15 16:50
Human moon landing in 2026?	2	$107	55	55	+0	open	—	06-19 17:18
EU dissolves before 2027?	2	$106	55	55	+0	open	—	06-15 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	2	$106	110	110	+0	Down	$-2	05-09 04:38
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$105	55	55	+0	open	—	07-01 13:55
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	2	$105	57	57	+0	open	—	06-27 05:15
btc updown 15m 1782411300	13	$101	220	0	+220	open	—	06-25 18:15
Epstein client list released by June 30?	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	06-17 04:27
spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	2	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	06-18 04:57
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$96	50	50	+0	open	—	06-22 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	15	$93	730	700	+30	Up	+$21	05-08 14:10
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	1	$86	100	0	+100	open	—	06-23 15:51
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	2	$69	35	35	+0	open	—	06-22 16:08
NATO dissolves before 2027?	1	$66	69	0	+69	open	—	06-15 05:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$50	55	0	+55	Up	+$5	05-09 05:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	12	$42	30	30	+0	Up	+$16	05-08 15:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$40	52	0	+52	Up	+$12	05-09 04:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 20:16:23	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	60	96¢	$57	0x8742f8…
07-01 14:57:58	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	60	96¢	$57	0xc17502…
07-01 13:55:43	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0xf7054f…
07-01 13:55:31	Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?	No	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0xff2889…
06-30 16:44:53	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x326868…
06-30 16:44:01	Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?	No	BUY	59	95¢	$56	0x1f4672…
06-30 15:34:08	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	63	88¢	$55	0xc2fbd6…
06-29 16:04:37	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	63	91¢	$57	0xec1af6…
06-29 04:49:17	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	59	93¢	$54	0xf575f8…
06-28 14:35:14	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	94¢	$55	0x4555f3…
06-27 05:15:10	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	57	89¢	$51	0xe2ddf2…
06-27 05:14:55	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	67	88¢	$59	0x2138bc…
06-26 15:23:07	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	67	90¢	$60	0xbd2e7e…
06-26 15:22:04	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0xbddaad…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xefbc30…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	34	46¢	$15	0x9b0aca…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8c7870…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x7331b9…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x6394f9…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x632cec…
06-25 18:15:28	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0x577c6c…
06-25 18:15:25	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x8f9bd2…
06-25 18:15:25	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0x667615…
06-25 18:15:22	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0xdef362…
06-25 18:15:22	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x51945a…
06-25 18:15:22	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x1d0d08…
06-25 18:15:04	btc updown 15m 1782411300	Down	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x04b5af…
06-25 18:08:34	btc updown 5m 1782410700	Down	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x9f3c53…
06-25 11:01:01	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	64	94¢	$60	0x9b5875…
06-24 16:47:49	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x973534…
06-23 15:51:10	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x65acce…
06-22 16:08:17	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x34144b…
06-22 05:32:14	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x7d2aaa…
06-22 04:17:01	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xd8c728…
06-21 15:14:44	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xd06a80…
06-20 13:08:52	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	230	10¢	$23	0x8c658a…
06-20 06:33:13	Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	No	SELL	60	94¢	$56	0xa75080…
06-20 06:33:02	Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	91¢	$56	0x3312a2…
06-19 17:22:23	Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x4219e3…
06-19 17:21:17	Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	No	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x743848…
06-19 17:20:26	Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x91ed28…
06-19 17:18:53	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x038e28…
06-19 06:47:58	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x3dbfbc…
06-19 05:39:17	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0xc9fedf…
06-18 16:12:41	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x1ee96f…
06-18 04:57:23	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x6f8f3d…
06-18 04:57:16	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	SpaceX	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xace167…
06-17 16:08:35	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	66	97¢	$64	0x900c03…
06-17 16:06:53	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	SpaceX	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xcff7e4…
06-17 04:27:10	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x655ca2…
06-16 14:36:50	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xf38356…
06-16 05:18:42	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0x1feedc…
06-16 05:18:31	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	SELL	64	96¢	$62	0x34b638…
06-15 16:57:54	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x51cbc4…
06-15 16:57:03	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x8d6b1f…
06-15 16:51:58	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x19cea3…
06-15 16:50:19	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xf990b7…
06-15 05:53:37	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	BUY	69	96¢	$66	0x8602af…
06-15 05:52:39	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0xfefd5c…
06-15 04:17:54	EU dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x685ee6…
06-14 16:06:46	EU dissolves before 2027?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xfaa198…
05-09 05:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	266	4¢	$11	0xc2dc12…
05-09 05:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	223	4¢	$9	0xd63821…
05-09 05:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	188	4¢	$8	0xadf54f…
05-09 05:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xa09780…
05-09 05:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x6db32e…
05-09 05:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x32cb27…
05-09 05:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xdcf77e…
05-09 05:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x659d54…
05-09 05:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	72	32¢	$23	0xdcf6f3…
05-09 05:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x64c093…
05-09 04:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0xa9d270…
05-09 04:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x3dba6c…
05-09 04:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	53	74¢	$39	0x4e7697…
05-09 04:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	52	34¢	$18	0x4da513…
05-09 04:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	52	40¢	$21	0xfda2ea…
05-09 04:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	110	47¢	$52	0xb2d039…
05-09 04:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	110	49¢	$54	0x9d16ce…
05-09 04:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	85	2¢	$2	0x8bef78…
05-09 04:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	85	27¢	$23	0x529994…
05-09 04:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	27	28¢	$8	0xa7e1b6…
05-09 04:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xa85ea1…
05-09 04:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0xde1c2e…
05-08 16:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0xed997e…
05-08 16:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	32	37¢	$12	0xb5be3d…
05-08 15:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xa962bc…
05-08 15:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x30cd4e…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xb1a8c4…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb147d2…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xa99f2d…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x83d7aa…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x408213…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3814d1…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x30abbc…
05-08 15:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x177f1d…
05-08 15:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xff5a59…
05-08 15:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xe862d4…
05-08 15:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe47f0b…
05-08 15:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0xbc399f…
05-08 15:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xbaabe9…