Ugly-Recorder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$179

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

91.1%

Resolved

114

Trades

320

lifetime

Volume

$40.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$127

Open exposure

$213

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-26 13:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Politics

36% 92% -$204

Crypto

36% 81% +$7

Other

27% 98% +$17

Tech

1% 67% $0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-26).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+213	$198	98¢	$209	+$11	06-08 15:06
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		+213	$14	2¢	$4	-$10	06-12 08:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	31	$3.3K	1,634	1,634	+0	No	+$1	01-09 04:41
trump out as president by march 31	14	$3.1K	1,597	1,597	+0	No	+$3	03-15 14:50
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	10	$2.9K	1,438	1,438	+0	No	+$1	01-20 08:11
Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	7	$1.8K	1,112	683	+429	No	+$11	04-26 04:54
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	4	$1.7K	834	834	+0	No	+$1	02-26 14:19
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	4	$1.7K	832	832	+0	No	+$0	02-09 09:56
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	6	$1.6K	828	828	+0	No	+$1	02-06 13:04
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?	8	$1.6K	894	758	+136	No	+$22	04-26 08:10
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	8	$1.6K	820	774	+46	No	+$1	01-13 02:21
Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?	4	$1.1K	1,133	0	+1,133	Yes	+$3	04-29 03:17
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$834	418	418	+0	No	+$0	02-19 11:27
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	2	$830	415	415	+0	Yes	+$0	02-09 11:00
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	3	$830	416	416	+0	No	+$0	02-12 14:36
will ethereum reach 4000 in february 2026	3	$828	416	416	+0	No	+$0	02-13 13:18
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$823	424	424	+0	No	+$1	01-20 08:29
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$822	412	412	+0	No	+$1	02-04 00:27
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	2	$817	410	410	+0	No	+$0	01-10 04:40
will edgex launch a token in 2025	3	$815	408	408	+0	Yes	+$0	01-02 00:26
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	2	$812	407	407	+0	No	+$0	01-02 18:20
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	3	$727	378	350	+28	No	+$0	01-04 02:23
Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?	2	$475	240	240	+0	No	+$4	04-26 02:24
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	3	$474	252	222	+30	No	+$0	01-03 13:03
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	18	$430	219	219	+0	No	+$0	05-11 05:40
will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	3	$429	217	217	+0	No	+$3	06-29 14:29
Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	2	$425	200	230	-30	No	+$5	04-26 03:29
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	1	$418	418	0	+418	Yes	+$0	02-14 21:54
will the dhs shutdown last 7 days or more	1	$417	418	0	+418	Yes	+$1	02-19 13:37
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	3	$415	416	0	+416	No	+$1	02-14 05:23
will trump say million or billion or trillion 10 times during cnbc interview	1	$412	412	0	+412	No	+$0	01-23 18:16
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$385	196	196	+0	No	+$2	05-21 13:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 13:14:27	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	180	100¢	$179	0x4e5ffb…
07-25 22:37:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x56f98b…
07-23 14:55:39	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x72fca7…
07-19 09:33:04	will the aqi at the world cup final be 180 or higher 20260717164825579	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xc20081…
07-16 01:17:44	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	222	1¢	$2	0x0e1cac…
07-14 04:14:22	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	222	98¢	$218	0x466982…
07-09 13:06:53	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x65b7b0…
07-02 13:36:37	will wti reach 95 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2900a3…
06-29 14:29:53	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	No	SELL	217	100¢	$216	0xc22194…
06-23 08:24:28	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	No	BUY	127	98¢	$124	0xede3aa…
06-23 08:24:28	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	No	BUY	90	98¢	$89	0xbdf4f0…
06-22 12:25:28	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 30	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf991fc…
06-18 14:35:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x3a22db…
06-12 08:34:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	6¢	$13	0x10f15e…
06-08 15:06:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	213	93¢	$198	0x91e005…
06-08 09:46:46	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xa051f7…
06-06 08:58:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$178	0x0a1e45…
06-06 03:35:00	will stephanie vargas advance from the ca 33 primary election	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0xb25e6b…
06-02 07:05:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	180	98¢	$177	0xdfc806…
05-31 11:36:45	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc98110…
05-28 13:57:31	Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x92bba0…
05-28 13:56:28	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0x165099…
05-25 12:41:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	124	3¢	$4	0xfa4b46…
05-24 07:28:37	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x20f8aa…
05-23 21:46:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	124	97¢	$120	0x809c7d…
05-23 14:08:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc63f5e…
05-22 11:01:08	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x16ee11…
05-21 13:26:18	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	146	99¢	$144	0xc43e21…
05-21 12:43:48	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xe09768…
05-20 06:56:49	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	191	98¢	$187	0xed97fa…
05-18 12:27:43	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x560458…
05-18 12:26:03	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x65ee8f…
05-17 16:34:18	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xadac9e…
05-16 08:12:18	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa4d018…
05-16 08:11:15	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xd7288e…
05-11 05:40:26	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x629519…
05-11 05:32:04	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe7c3e4…
05-11 05:00:58	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xa0a79e…
05-11 04:39:23	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x11f39a…
05-11 04:34:12	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xd58c9a…
05-11 04:34:10	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x66590f…
05-11 04:30:01	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x39f842…
05-11 04:26:54	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x018b44…
05-11 04:25:11	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x9b9a81…
05-11 04:24:43	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xac8d7e…
05-11 04:24:43	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x0337f6…
05-11 04:24:41	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0xeba6b3…
05-11 04:23:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x35164d…
05-11 04:22:23	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x1942eb…
05-11 04:12:58	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xee11c1…
05-11 04:12:52	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xaa46ef…
05-09 03:16:17	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x60d8af…
05-09 02:35:53	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	208	98¢	$204	0xa400c9…
05-04 15:34:34	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$178	0xf998c6…
05-03 15:58:58	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	180	99¢	$177	0x7b8a01…
04-30 04:24:24	Will Trump say "Donroe Doctrine" or "Trump Doctrine" in April?	No	SELL	62	95¢	$59	0x7acd2c…
04-30 01:26:24	Will Trump say "Donroe Doctrine" or "Trump Doctrine" in April?	Yes	BUY	58	10¢	$6	0xd01b77…
04-29 12:14:04	Will Trump say "Donroe Doctrine" or "Trump Doctrine" in April?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x956600…
04-29 03:17:22	Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	315	100¢	$314	0xba167f…
04-29 03:13:18	Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x1c7795…
04-29 02:58:16	Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0xdf1330…
04-29 02:50:56	Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x3cb1e0…
04-29 01:00:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,055	6¢	$69	0x9d2035…
04-28 20:12:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,055	7¢	$70	0x137947…
04-27 03:41:00	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	Yes	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0xc28d39…
04-27 03:40:56	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	Yes	SELL	32	9¢	$3	0x69c8f3…
04-27 03:38:28	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x90ae08…
04-27 03:34:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x6c8eef…
04-27 03:31:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x708b0b…
04-27 03:10:28	Will Trump say "Donroe Doctrine" or "Trump Doctrine" in April?	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x1e12e3…
04-26 08:10:54	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	132	99¢	$131	0x7188ed…
04-26 04:54:30	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x6c94b4…
04-26 04:42:22	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	383	100¢	$383	0xf4e073…
04-26 04:23:32	Will Trump say "Waste" or "Fraud" 2+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x20b9df…
04-26 04:23:30	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	610	99¢	$606	0x3118bb…
04-26 04:22:26	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x404c35…
04-26 04:22:18	Will Trump say "No No No" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x7e46a2…
04-26 04:22:12	Will Trump say "Stair" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0xddf7dd…
04-26 04:22:12	Will Trump say "Stair" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0xddf7dd…
04-26 04:22:00	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0x48d4cf…
04-26 04:22:00	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x48d4cf…
04-26 04:17:30	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xc84682…
04-26 04:00:56	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x0d5e2f…
04-26 03:55:14	Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x23504e…
04-26 03:30:06	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	401	100¢	$401	0xe231f1…
04-26 03:29:56	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	230	100¢	$230	0xee3d7d…
04-26 03:29:52	Will Trump say "Space" or "Moon" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xc29d08…
04-26 03:29:46	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Arc" or "Arch" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x33a35c…
04-26 03:24:30	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x305465…
04-26 03:16:22	Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$22	0xcef794…
04-26 03:08:12	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x2a47f1…
04-26 03:07:56	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	418	98¢	$410	0x8e32bc…
04-26 03:07:54	Will Trump say "No No No" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0x4956aa…
04-26 03:03:48	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x582a92…
04-26 03:03:22	Will Trump say "Safe City" or "Safest City" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xd48198…
04-26 03:03:22	Will Trump say "Kennedy" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2e14c7…
04-26 03:03:16	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x9abfd3…
04-26 03:03:16	Will Trump say "Stair" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x93f93e…
04-26 03:03:16	Will Trump say "Kennedy" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x7f508d…
04-26 03:03:16	Will Trump say "Soleimani" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x68f614…