Extra-Large-Brother — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$406

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.8%

Resolved

Trades

210

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 05-13 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

72% 43% $-406

Other

24% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	14	$1.1K	2,200	0	+2,200	open	—	05-07 19:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	13	$1.1K	2,050	0	+2,050	Yes	$-288	05-08 18:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$856	800	400	+400	open	—	05-10 15:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	15	$741	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	05-10 09:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	9	$606	982	0	+982	No	+$36	05-08 07:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$476	1,300	300	+1,000	open	—	05-04 21:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	9	$415	840	0	+840	open	—	05-10 13:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	6	$393	757	0	+757	Yes	$-193	05-08 18:23
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	9	$383	748	0	+748	Yes	+$35	05-08 07:01
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	3	$320	700	0	+700	open	—	05-01 20:16
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	10	$313	550	0	+550	open	—	04-27 14:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$304	600	200	+400	open	—	05-07 22:10
Nothing Ever Happens: May	6	$212	400	0	+400	open	—	05-06 22:24
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	6	$207	400	0	+400	open	—	04-27 08:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$202	400	0	+400	open	—	05-10 16:51
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$194	400	0	+400	open	—	05-06 22:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	5	$178	400	0	+400	No	+$22	04-28 08:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$148	400	0	+400	open	—	04-25 15:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$145	300	0	+300	open	—	05-10 20:30
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	5	$144	256	0	+256	open	—	04-25 18:40
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	4	$142	300	0	+300	open	—	05-04 15:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	4	$140	400	0	+400	open	—	04-25 15:55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	1	$122	200	0	+200	open	—	05-06 07:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	3	$113	240	0	+240	open	—	05-10 19:37
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	6	$102	200	0	+200	open	—	05-10 12:20
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	4	$99	200	0	+200	open	—	04-27 22:52
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	2	$96	200	0	+200	open	—	04-27 02:12
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$95	200	0	+200	open	—	05-04 23:12
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	1	$90	100	0	+100	open	—	05-01 19:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$89	200	0	+200	open	—	04-25 14:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 16:32:41	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x4d68fb…
05-10 20:30:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x890a9e…
05-10 19:37:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	13¢	$12	0x4f1536…
05-10 19:34:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xd5a424…
05-10 16:51:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x78779d…
05-10 15:47:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	400	86¢	$342	0x132cac…
05-10 13:47:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xe85f04…
05-10 13:39:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	120	81¢	$97	0xc596f0…
05-10 12:50:43	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	77¢	$64	0xe67829…
05-10 12:48:49	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	77¢	$13	0xf92c10…
05-10 12:31:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	113	85¢	$96	0x2e705f…
05-10 12:31:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x1ca253…
05-10 12:31:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	80	85¢	$68	0x3abd7c…
05-10 12:25:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x8ff293…
05-10 12:20:31	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	44	19¢	$8	0xe5a50a…
05-10 11:08:55	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xacb4c7…
05-10 10:25:26	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x293415…
05-10 10:21:03	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	19¢	$9	0x0ce042…
05-10 09:56:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$2	0xe412f2…
05-10 09:53:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0xf398af…
05-10 09:41:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xe6ad2d…
05-10 09:39:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x6b09ca…
05-10 09:39:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0xa12275…
05-10 09:27:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x24011c…
05-10 09:26:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x656142…
05-10 09:05:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	14¢	$27	0x0b1df6…
05-09 14:09:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xceadb5…
05-08 18:23:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x77c261…
05-08 18:23:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	154	50¢	$77	0xdafbe2…
05-08 18:18:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x94eaed…
05-08 18:18:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	43	50¢	$21	0x00b47c…
05-08 18:14:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd57a4e…
05-08 18:14:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	104	76¢	$79	0xfc226f…
05-08 18:14:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0xf53aef…
05-08 18:12:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xac1fce…
05-08 18:12:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	257	56¢	$144	0x3f07bd…
05-08 18:12:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xa3cb28…
05-08 18:08:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x7d15ec…
05-08 18:08:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	67¢	$80	0x2095c3…
05-08 18:03:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x110aaf…
05-08 18:03:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x8f3156…
05-08 07:46:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xaef215…
05-08 07:13:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0xab508a…
05-08 07:01:41	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	118	50¢	$59	0x22f560…
05-08 06:55:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	150	94¢	$142	0x4dc71b…
05-08 06:47:34	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	182	76¢	$138	0x27a507…
05-08 06:41:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$159	0x4f6ad9…
05-08 04:57:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	300	25¢	$75	0x52afb2…
05-07 23:04:36	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x2e0a41…
05-07 22:13:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa63180…
05-07 22:11:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x20dac8…
05-07 22:10:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0x1e4204…
05-07 21:22:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x2d0165…
05-07 21:11:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x0df478…
05-07 20:05:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x9e8f76…
05-07 19:08:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x6dba02…
05-07 18:47:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x6bd5f0…
05-07 18:04:02	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x3975d5…
05-07 16:11:55	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x647713…
05-07 08:11:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	24¢	$53	0xe5f73c…
05-07 07:39:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x11e36f…
05-07 07:22:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x4ff3cd…
05-07 07:18:59	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x8051b2…
05-07 07:16:34	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xc1cf49…
05-07 03:14:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x1d4f4c…
05-06 22:24:34	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Something	BUY	186	30¢	$56	0xc05f1e…
05-06 22:19:05	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Something	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xdd5d32…
05-06 22:15:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	24¢	$47	0x996f88…
05-06 21:10:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x91e5b9…
05-06 18:41:41	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x3d5c59…
05-06 18:34:27	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x3bbb15…
05-06 18:18:57	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x462013…
05-06 16:37:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	145	73¢	$106	0x9d8ec9…
05-06 12:42:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xcc9064…
05-06 12:27:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x23f756…
05-06 12:26:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0x01236a…
05-06 12:25:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0xc9062e…
05-06 07:46:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	120	81¢	$97	0x06a35d…
05-06 07:41:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xac7876…
05-05 16:14:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xc0cab3…
05-05 13:54:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	319	38¢	$121	0xcae423…
05-05 13:54:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	81	38¢	$31	0x5633c6…
05-05 13:42:08	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x9829f5…
05-05 09:59:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	129	49¢	$63	0x604635…
05-05 09:53:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	271	49¢	$133	0x25c534…
05-05 07:54:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0xa0fee8…
05-04 23:12:02	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xef6e06…
05-04 22:57:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x9f740d…
05-04 21:02:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0xd0240f…
05-04 20:01:00	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	46	16¢	$7	0xa36431…
05-04 20:00:40	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0xedbabb…
05-04 19:30:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xc55207…
05-04 15:48:46	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xc78961…
05-04 15:31:14	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	149	33¢	$49	0xcbc0f2…
05-04 13:18:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x067414…
05-04 13:10:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	67	50¢	$34	0x20a1cc…
05-04 13:09:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	133	50¢	$66	0xc1fede…
05-04 13:06:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	140	65¢	$91	0x2fd9bc…
05-04 11:00:44	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x1cc23c…
05-04 10:07:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xc3be6a…