Responsible-Cupcake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$15

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

117

lifetime

Volume

$9.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$87

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-13 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

53% — —

Politics

33% — —

Sports

14% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes		-170	$-83	40¢	$-69	+$14	05-27 20:30
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+282	$17	6¢	$18	+$0	06-13 00:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$2.4K	1,195	1,195	+0	open	—	04-17 02:55
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$1.1K	575	575	+0	open	—	04-15 07:56
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.1K	618	618	+0	No	$-1	04-14 18:44
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	12	$663	477	477	+0	open	—	06-05 15:37
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$386	245	245	+0	open	—	06-05 21:46
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	9	$369	526	526	+0	open	—	06-07 05:14
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?	3	$312	177	177	+0	open	—	04-23 01:41
will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	4	$283	169	169	+0	open	—	04-26 23:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$280	285	285	+0	open	—	06-06 14:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$203	207	207	+0	open	—	06-03 04:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$199	130	130	+0	open	—	06-12 16:59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$184	93	93	+0	open	—	06-01 00:54
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$180	92	92	+0	open	—	06-10 11:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$177	91	91	+0	open	—	05-24 06:54
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	5	$170	183	183	+0	open	—	06-10 21:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$157	130	130	+0	open	—	05-30 05:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$137	71	71	+0	open	—	05-24 22:00
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	3	$135	193	193	+0	open	—	06-10 16:36
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	6	$120	141	141	+0	open	—	06-09 00:31
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$118	60	60	+0	No	$-0	04-16 16:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	3	$99	252	252	+0	open	—	04-21 22:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$83	0	170	-170	open	—	05-27 20:30
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$69	112	112	+0	open	—	06-02 15:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$61	156	156	+0	open	—	06-03 15:07
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	4	$60	125	223	-98	open	—	05-30 09:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	2	$50	630	630	+0	open	—	04-15 17:55
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	3	$36	196	196	+0	open	—	06-12 10:10
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	6	$30	433	135	+298	open	—	05-30 20:50
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$17	282	0	+282	open	—	06-13 00:11
Will Alberta join the US?	4	$13	149	149	+0	open	—	06-02 07:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 00:11:09	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	282	6¢	$17	0xd87c63…
06-12 16:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	130	77¢	$100	0x711d49…
06-12 15:05:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	130	76¢	$99	0x1ee188…
06-12 10:10:42	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	151	12¢	$18	0x560901…
06-12 10:10:42	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	45	12¢	$5	0x198ede…
06-12 07:59:45	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	196	6¢	$12	0x727a75…
06-10 21:14:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	126	46¢	$58	0x6ce4b2…
06-10 21:13:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x9ed628…
06-10 21:13:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	52	46¢	$24	0x63c389…
06-10 20:01:06	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	167	47¢	$78	0xe0c9f7…
06-10 20:01:06	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0x05ddd4…
06-10 16:36:03	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	193	35¢	$68	0x429fe0…
06-10 13:50:45	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	60	35¢	$21	0xd22d29…
06-10 13:50:45	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	133	35¢	$47	0x81e06d…
06-10 11:43:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0xc71da6…
06-10 11:43:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x2a3044…
06-10 08:11:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	92	98¢	$90	0x560440…
06-09 00:31:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	54	42¢	$23	0x649ef4…
06-09 00:31:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	87	42¢	$37	0x3fbccf…
06-08 22:28:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xa7142e…
06-08 22:28:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	61	43¢	$26	0x8a7240…
06-08 22:28:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x30b24c…
06-08 22:28:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	64	43¢	$28	0x0d9bc8…
06-07 05:14:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	194	21¢	$41	0xf8584f…
06-07 03:58:57	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	21¢	$29	0x855034…
06-07 03:58:57	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	21¢	$11	0x5d5baf…
06-07 01:32:36	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	128	79¢	$101	0x6cc135…
06-06 23:33:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	128	79¢	$101	0x083ae2…
06-06 14:29:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	116	42¢	$49	0x214159…
06-06 13:09:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	116	42¢	$49	0xb13348…
06-06 08:28:25	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	204	21¢	$43	0xe51f55…
06-06 06:56:28	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0xcd3d57…
06-06 06:56:28	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	21¢	$13	0xaa38d2…
06-06 06:56:28	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x82b20a…
06-05 21:46:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	132	77¢	$101	0x7c13aa…
06-05 21:45:46	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	132	77¢	$102	0x83850e…
06-05 15:37:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	106	96¢	$102	0x18aa13…
06-05 13:50:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	106	97¢	$102	0xdb1789…
06-04 22:10:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0x08de83…
06-04 22:09:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0x77eaf5…
06-04 16:50:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	69	82¢	$57	0x54ed23…
06-04 16:50:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	44	82¢	$36	0x2696b8…
06-04 12:34:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	113	80¢	$91	0x7f194a…
06-03 15:07:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	156	19¢	$30	0x0a77b8…
06-03 10:34:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	45	20¢	$9	0x9895fc…
06-03 10:34:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	111	20¢	$22	0x0378a1…
06-03 04:09:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x7728ab…
06-03 04:09:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	49¢	$57	0x2847d2…
06-03 04:09:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	49¢	$41	0x25d8a3…
06-03 04:08:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	49¢	$101	0x7be82d…
06-02 15:51:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	112	31¢	$35	0x86fafc…
06-02 15:49:50	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	112	31¢	$35	0x3aff01…
06-02 07:02:09	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x5b2e26…
06-02 02:56:34	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	130	4¢	$6	0x157687…
06-02 01:01:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	104	4¢	$4	0x3518de…
06-02 01:01:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x20fed1…
06-01 18:26:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0xbe0ff2…
06-01 16:29:17	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0x02b490…
06-01 00:54:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0x33ab64…
05-31 20:37:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0xf3fe3d…
05-31 20:37:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x0f0464…
05-31 11:54:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0xe4be26…
05-31 11:54:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	73	2¢	$1	0x6ad799…
05-31 11:54:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	74	2¢	$1	0x186e7d…
05-31 10:18:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	297	2¢	$5	0xa9fc19…
05-31 07:28:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x546e60…
05-31 04:59:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf500a3…
05-30 20:50:26	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	298	2¢	$5	0x3992e9…
05-30 09:38:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	98	5¢	$5	0xe17294…
05-30 05:13:35	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	130	61¢	$79	0xaa12b1…
05-30 03:56:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	130	60¢	$78	0xe2f69d…
05-29 02:26:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	54¢	$9	0xde3641…
05-29 02:26:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	88	54¢	$48	0x733994…
05-29 02:26:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	65	54¢	$35	0x2da240…
05-29 00:01:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	66	54¢	$36	0x4c2857…
05-29 00:01:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	103	54¢	$56	0xc65046…
05-28 23:44:35	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x935b4a…
05-28 23:44:35	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x8281ed…
05-28 23:44:35	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	42	4¢	$2	0x82344d…
05-28 20:21:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	142	4¢	$6	0x283009…
05-28 07:20:39	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0xde316a…
05-28 07:20:39	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x9352d4…
05-28 05:44:10	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	73	10¢	$7	0xdc7be1…
05-28 05:44:10	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0xbd53d4…
05-28 05:44:10	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	35	10¢	$4	0x5bc4dc…
05-27 20:30:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	49¢	$83	0xca28be…
05-26 10:01:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	125	22¢	$28	0x2512bd…
05-26 08:47:35	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	39	22¢	$9	0xa2cf52…
05-26 08:47:35	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	86	22¢	$19	0x00a935…
05-24 22:00:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	71	96¢	$68	0x5a63d6…
05-24 21:59:57	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	71	96¢	$68	0x62f578…
05-24 06:54:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xb7f29e…
05-24 06:54:35	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	68	98¢	$66	0x879f63…
05-24 05:16:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	91	97¢	$89	0xb974ea…
04-26 23:03:04	will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	SELL	36	84¢	$30	0xd42e10…
04-26 23:03:02	will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	SELL	107	84¢	$90	0x84d4d9…
04-26 23:03:02	will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	SELL	26	84¢	$22	0x2c074f…
04-26 20:35:22	will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	169	84¢	$141	0x186960…
04-23 01:41:14	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x7676b3…
04-23 01:40:34	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	167	88¢	$147	0xe1295c…