Somber-Grit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$32

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$69

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 06-09 00:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 57% $-75

Other

24% 100% +$70

Politics

19% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No		+66	$50	99¢	$65	+$15	05-28 17:09
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No		+259	$51	2¢	$4	$-47	06-01 00:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$110	130	0	+130	open	—	05-26 18:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$54	96	0	+96	open	—	06-01 05:22
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$51	259	0	+259	open	—	06-01 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	1	$50	231	0	+231	Up	$-50	05-12 18:07
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	1	$50	114	0	+114	open	—	05-26 18:39
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26?	1	$50	135	0	+135	open	—	05-26 18:36
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	1	$50	66	0	+66	open	—	05-28 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	1	$48	99	0	+99	open	—	05-20 04:23
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	1	$41	151	0	+151	open	—	05-08 02:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 2?	1	$39	67	0	+67	open	—	06-02 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	1	$35	50	0	+50	open	—	05-20 04:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$34	58	0	+58	Down	$-34	05-12 18:18
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026?	1	$33	91	0	+91	open	—	05-22 15:52
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13?	1	$30	100	0	+100	Yes	+$70	05-12 18:03
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?	1	$30	55	0	+55	open	—	05-20 04:17
btc updown 5m 1773327300	2	$28	50	0	+50	open	—	03-12 14:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$26	31	0	+31	Down	+$5	05-08 01:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	5	$25	21	5	+16	Up	+$1	05-07 18:32
btc updown 5m 1773288900	2	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 04:19
btc updown 15m 1770772500	1	$20	4,595	0	+4,595	open	—	02-11 01:28
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$20	49	0	+49	open	—	05-14 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	05-22 15:49
spx opens up or down on february 10 2026	1	$20	43	0	+43	open	—	02-10 04:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$16	40	0	+40	open	—	06-02 04:39
will argentinas monthly inflation in march 2026 be between 3pt1 and 3pt3	1	$16	24	0	+24	open	—	04-01 12:11
will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762	1	$16	24	0	+24	open	—	06-09 00:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	1	$16	27	0	+27	Down	+$11	05-08 01:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	1	$15	22	0	+22	Up	+$7	05-12 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$15	234	0	+234	Down	$-15	05-12 17:58
will the us deport illegal migrants to argentina by march 31	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	02-11 00:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 00:27:30	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762	No	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0xeac692…
06-02 04:49:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	67	58¢	$39	0xfd79ca…
06-02 04:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0xf7d385…
06-01 22:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x821fb4…
06-01 05:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	96	56¢	$54	0x0550c4…
06-01 05:19:51	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xad4324…
06-01 00:15:51	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0x34fa75…
06-01 00:14:43	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	259	20¢	$51	0x54d82b…
05-28 17:09:05	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x1c18f1…
05-26 18:39:43	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0xc5cdd0…
05-26 18:36:59	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x6e136c…
05-26 18:35:21	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xa987b5…
05-26 18:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x17c7fc…
05-26 18:31:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0xbcc1a0…
05-22 15:52:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	37¢	$33	0xc30799…
05-22 15:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x6af82a…
05-20 04:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	99	49¢	$48	0x9c06ef…
05-20 04:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xc8f4bd…
05-20 04:17:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0xb64ad7…
05-14 17:36:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	319	3¢	$10	0x42762c…
05-14 17:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xe5de32…
05-14 17:32:49	Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd9d605…
05-14 17:32:30	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x6d6990…
05-14 17:32:25	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	213	5¢	$10	0xbbe417…
05-14 17:32:18	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xb58bb5…
05-14 17:32:09	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x166ba7…
05-12 18:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	58	59¢	$34	0x6221bc…
05-12 18:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	231	22¢	$50	0xbf4045…
05-12 18:03:30	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x6b5f36…
05-12 17:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xc40970…
05-12 17:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x4aedd8…
05-12 17:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0xfd335d…
05-08 02:03:52	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	151	27¢	$41	0x3742ec…
05-08 01:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0xb3659b…
05-08 01:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	58¢	$16	0x5fc3f7…
05-07 18:32:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6feb17…
05-07 18:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xbf023c…
05-07 18:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x5b28df…
05-07 18:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd00f71…
05-07 18:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3250f0…
04-21 22:58:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc25374…
04-21 22:57:40	btc updown 5m 1776812100	Down	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x274b05…
04-16 15:47:10	spy up or down on april 16 2026	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x2dd4ad…
04-16 15:45:12	will the next model released by anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480 896	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x4544b4…
04-16 15:42:18	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x8245bc…
04-16 15:40:42	btc updown 5m 1776353700	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5a7fe1…
04-01 12:11:23	will argentinas monthly inflation in march 2026 be between 3pt1 and 3pt3	Yes	BUY	24	68¢	$16	0x299a1b…
03-31 23:17:01	btc updown 5m 1774998900	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xf78980…
03-31 23:14:07	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xa4ad74…
03-12 15:04:27	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe743ad…
03-12 14:57:55	btc updown 5m 1773327300	Down	BUY	31	56¢	$17	0xd65554…
03-12 14:57:55	btc updown 5m 1773327300	Down	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0x497f7f…
03-12 04:19:47	btc updown 5m 1773288900	Down	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0xbf0c44…
03-12 04:19:47	btc updown 5m 1773288900	Down	BUY	11	68¢	$8	0x107aaf…
03-12 04:17:41	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	60	20¢	$12	0x33374f…
03-12 04:17:27	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x85a07f…
02-11 01:30:11	will openai launch a new consumer hardware product by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	51	6¢	$3	0x581165…
02-11 01:29:13	will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50m views in its first 7 days	Yes	BUY	3,045	0¢	$5	0x1bae68…
02-11 01:28:51	btc updown 15m 1770772500	Up	BUY	4,595	0¢	$20	0xf3866f…
02-11 00:12:19	will the us deport illegal migrants to argentina by march 31	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xd0c4e2…
02-11 00:11:51	elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 190 214	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x864664…
02-11 00:09:45	btc updown 15m 1770768000	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x7bc058…
02-10 04:08:27	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x1b4d0e…
02-10 04:07:53	spx opens up or down on february 10 2026	Up	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xc1e098…
02-10 04:07:13	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb60bdc…
02-10 04:06:53	btc updown 15m 1770696000	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x58a7b3…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	29	$1.17M	4,439	06-09 19:19
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	29	$40.7K	977	06-06 18:00
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	26	$4.49K	167	06-09 17:52
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	25	$162.2K	3,827	06-09 14:56
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	25	$3.65K	757	06-08 05:32
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	22	$13.5K	4,158	06-09 16:58
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	22	$10.9K	1,258	06-09 01:38
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	21	$8.42K	1,610	06-02 04:39