Somber-Grit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

Trades

187

lifetime

Volume

$6.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 07-25 23:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

32% 57% $-75

Other

26% 100% +$70

Sports

18% — —

Tech

14% — —

Politics

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	3	$662	495	495	+0	open	—	07-09 03:52
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	4	$520	2,557	0	+2,557	open	—	07-09 03:57
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	2	$208	160	160	+0	open	—	06-27 01:40
btc updown 5m 1782450000	3	$208	417	139	+278	open	—	06-26 05:03
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	3	$198	1,483	0	+1,483	open	—	07-04 16:35
btc updown 5m 1782434700	4	$193	226	226	+0	open	—	06-26 00:49
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	2	$151	121	121	+0	open	—	06-26 05:01
btc updown 5m 1782448800	2	$150	128	128	+0	open	—	06-26 04:44
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	3	$142	185	42	+143	open	—	06-28 03:06
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	2	$128	78	78	+0	open	—	06-29 23:44
btc updown 5m 1782434400	2	$118	144	144	+0	open	—	06-26 00:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$110	130	0	+130	open	—	05-26 18:31
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	2	$108	86	86	+0	open	—	06-17 06:12
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	2	$106	89	89	+0	open	—	06-17 01:21
btc updown 5m 1781650500	2	$100	1,839	0	+1,839	open	—	06-16 22:58
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	1	$100	122	0	+122	open	—	06-14 01:36
btc updown 5m 1782434100	2	$98	133	133	+0	open	—	06-26 00:38
btc updown 15m 1782450900	2	$91	198	0	+198	open	—	06-26 05:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$80	56	56	+0	open	—	06-28 00:27
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	2	$79	62	62	+0	open	—	07-05 22:28
bitcoin up or down june 26 2026 12am et	1	$76	331	0	+331	open	—	06-26 04:46
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	1	$75	123	0	+123	open	—	06-30 17:56
will senegal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134500	3	$75	147	147	+0	open	—	07-01 21:14
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	1	$74	128	0	+128	open	—	07-07 21:22
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	2	$66	42	42	+0	open	—	07-06 02:57
btc updown 5m 1781652600	1	$58	125	0	+125	open	—	06-16 23:33
will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	3	$56	61	61	+0	open	—	07-01 17:50
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	2	$55	49	49	+0	open	—	07-07 16:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$54	96	0	+96	open	—	06-01 05:22
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$51	259	0	+259	open	—	06-01 00:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 23:33:57	will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xc49156…
07-18 22:27:58	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xc82bcf…
07-18 05:48:36	openai vs meta higher valuation on december 31	Meta	SELL	32	80¢	$26	0x67026e…
07-17 21:44:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	52¢	$19	0x6a4737…
07-15 21:01:07	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	386	6¢	$25	0x0c7c8b…
07-09 03:57:37	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	21¢	$75	0x1c97ad…
07-09 03:52:16	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	SELL	495	73¢	$362	0x567810…
07-07 21:22:22	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	128	58¢	$74	0xe3b52c…
07-07 17:48:38	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	173	58¢	$100	0xabf608…
07-07 16:26:22	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	49	65¢	$32	0x37fd68…
07-07 02:01:31	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	49	47¢	$23	0x73698b…
07-07 02:00:37	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	24	48¢	$12	0x9f913e…
07-06 02:57:08	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	SELL	42	86¢	$36	0x863f84…
07-06 02:45:53	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0x16a0df…
07-05 22:43:17	will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xef70fe…
07-05 22:28:20	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	SELL	62	87¢	$54	0x121f14…
07-04 22:39:23	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xf8972c…
07-04 16:38:47	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x184ed4…
07-04 16:38:41	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0xa4ba33…
07-04 16:35:04	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x28d781…
07-04 16:34:19	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0xc717ad…
07-04 06:50:53	will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x7dab04…
07-03 22:24:46	btc updown 5m 1783117200	Up	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x393d52…
07-03 22:20:20	btc updown 5m 1783117200	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x32bc47…
07-03 22:17:47	btc updown 5m 1783116900	Up	SELL	21	78¢	$16	0xfe9e10…
07-03 22:15:40	btc updown 5m 1783116900	Up	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x313d48…
07-03 22:14:41	btc updown 5m 1783116600	Down	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xa9f655…
07-03 22:13:23	btc updown 5m 1783116600	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x5bf00b…
07-03 22:02:29	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 btts	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x47ca63…
07-03 20:05:14	will andurils valuation hit low 90 by july 31 20260629184730575	Yes	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xff51db…
07-03 19:59:50	openai vs meta higher valuation on december 31	Meta	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xb4b9ca…
07-03 19:55:23	will tesla launch robotaxis in california by december 31 20260630142749586	Yes	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0x86f4ad…
07-03 19:51:17	will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x8f7278…
07-03 04:38:49	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,075	20¢	$215	0x8f2e3d…
07-01 22:35:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	113	15¢	$17	0x8e7835…
07-01 22:20:08	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xdfb390…
07-01 21:14:28	will senegal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134500	Yes	SELL	47	34¢	$16	0x4ac31c…
07-01 21:14:11	will senegal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134500	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0xae3e2d…
07-01 20:58:07	fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 team to advance	Ghana	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x56b8bb…
07-01 20:58:01	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team to advance	Algeria	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x2a7b0d…
07-01 20:57:53	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Australia	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x552a64…
07-01 20:57:32	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x78b4e9…
07-01 20:54:17	will france reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134499	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x3eecb7…
07-01 18:04:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	No	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xd9348b…
07-01 18:02:17	btc updown 5m 1782928800	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xa9482a…
07-01 17:58:02	btc updown 5m 1782928500	Up	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x906bda…
07-01 17:50:11	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	No	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x57bd9c…
07-01 17:49:34	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	Yes	SELL	31	36¢	$11	0x63cccd…
07-01 17:43:38	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	No	SELL	55	51¢	$28	0xeaf19e…
06-30 17:56:55	Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	61¢	$75	0xb53438…
06-30 17:52:32	will senegal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134500	Yes	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0xdceb14…
06-30 17:51:55	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	No	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x7409db…
06-30 17:51:20	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	No	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0x96ab1f…
06-30 17:50:52	will england reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134511	No	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xc50b16…
06-30 17:50:13	will mexico reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120735	No	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xe1c552…
06-30 04:43:58	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	Yes	BUY	31	38¢	$12	0xa4a020…
06-30 02:54:44	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0xaf5c5b…
06-29 23:44:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0x0be494…
06-29 20:50:25	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 goals leroy sane gte2	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x4fdff6…
06-29 20:44:19	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xff8e9d…
06-29 20:44:17	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x525562…
06-29 03:35:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	No	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0xfc992b…
06-28 20:43:14	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	371	13¢	$50	0x4e4c14…
06-28 03:06:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	42	30¢	$13	0x481552…
06-28 03:06:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xab55e6…
06-28 00:27:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	56	84¢	$47	0xf1de51…
06-27 01:40:50	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Down	SELL	160	68¢	$108	0x5a981e…
06-26 05:42:17	Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0xf679f4…
06-26 05:41:53	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xce561f…
06-26 05:41:40	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0xd97029…
06-26 05:35:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	56	59¢	$33	0xaae858…
06-26 05:17:44	btc updown 15m 1782450900	Up	BUY	98	42¢	$41	0xcbd52b…
06-26 05:16:32	btc updown 15m 1782450900	Up	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x5e6aff…
06-26 05:10:41	btc updown 5m 1782450600	Down	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0xa8c041…
06-26 05:05:32	btc updown 5m 1782450300	Down	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x8e2c08…
06-26 05:03:50	btc updown 5m 1782450000	Up	BUY	278	18¢	$50	0xf75698…
06-26 05:03:05	btc updown 5m 1782450000	Down	SELL	139	78¢	$108	0x50e215…
06-26 05:02:29	btc updown 5m 1782450000	Down	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x27c415…
06-26 05:01:14	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	SELL	121	83¢	$101	0xb9b23a…
06-26 04:46:59	bitcoin up or down june 26 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	331	23¢	$76	0x6354dc…
06-26 04:44:28	btc updown 5m 1782448800	Up	SELL	128	65¢	$83	0xfb4ebf…
06-26 04:42:59	btc updown 5m 1782448800	Up	BUY	128	52¢	$67	0x5d766b…
06-26 04:36:16	btc updown 5m 1782448500	Up	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xaa481f…
06-26 00:49:44	btc updown 5m 1782434700	Up	SELL	101	10¢	$10	0x1cd732…
06-26 00:47:55	btc updown 5m 1782434700	Up	BUY	101	49¢	$50	0xcfe5ae…
06-26 00:47:10	btc updown 5m 1782434700	Down	SELL	125	66¢	$82	0x1d433d…
06-26 00:46:04	btc updown 5m 1782434700	Down	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x286ea9…
06-26 00:44:14	btc updown 5m 1782434400	Down	SELL	144	47¢	$68	0x50c74c…
06-26 00:42:25	btc updown 5m 1782434400	Down	BUY	144	35¢	$50	0xd458d0…
06-26 00:38:50	btc updown 5m 1782434100	Up	SELL	133	55¢	$74	0xe3742e…
06-26 00:36:28	btc updown 5m 1782434100	Up	BUY	133	18¢	$24	0x8f6f3c…
06-26 00:22:56	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x22dd5e…
06-25 06:50:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x626891…
06-25 06:49:29	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Down	BUY	160	63¢	$100	0x9b6529…
06-25 05:55:38	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	117	43¢	$50	0xb7cb2d…
06-25 05:54:52	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x9d2237…
06-25 05:46:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xa73083…
06-25 05:46:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x2a7f54…
06-17 06:21:56	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	342	14¢	$48	0x5d4f70…
06-17 06:18:59	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	814	6¢	$50	0xaebea8…