Fumbling-Turn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

12.9%

Resolved

Trades

219

lifetime

Volume

$4.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$30

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-24 14:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

46% 33% $-0

Politics

39% — —

Sports

13% 0% $-0

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-74	$-33	41¢	$-30	+$2	05-27 22:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	15	$539	285	285	+0	open	—	05-25 06:41
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	18	$317	517	517	+0	open	—	04-22 02:06
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	12	$235	298	298	+0	open	—	04-27 01:23
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$232	118	118	+0	No	$-0	04-07 20:06
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	7	$181	93	93	+0	open	—	06-02 15:14
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	8	$176	180	180	+0	open	—	06-07 19:00
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$160	81	81	+0	open	—	04-04 09:21
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$143	158	158	+0	open	—	05-30 20:39
Will Alberta join the US?	8	$130	157	157	+0	open	—	06-07 11:25
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	5	$123	66	66	+0	open	—	03-23 00:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$111	92	92	+0	open	—	06-12 10:48
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	5	$110	157	154	+3	open	—	03-21 06:17
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$95	208	208	+0	Yes	$-0	04-20 01:22
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	6	$85	133	133	+0	open	—	03-26 07:07
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$83	171	126	+45	open	—	06-05 11:19
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$82	42	42	+0	open	—	03-18 16:03
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	5	$80	52	149	-97	open	—	06-12 20:02
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$79	125	125	+0	open	—	03-18 04:33
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$76	39	39	+0	No	$-0	04-22 07:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$76	39	39	+0	open	—	04-18 10:25
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$76	43	43	+0	No	$-0	04-17 11:22
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$75	39	39	+0	open	—	04-19 22:19
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	3	$75	38	38	+0	open	—	04-14 22:17
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$74	38	38	+0	open	—	03-18 19:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$71	37	37	+0	open	—	03-28 01:56
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	03-28 09:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	7	$67	129	129	+0	open	—	06-02 03:35
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	2	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	06-05 02:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$65	33	107	-74	open	—	06-05 07:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$64	33	33	+0	open	—	05-22 01:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 14:12:47	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x2f8237…
06-24 11:57:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xd84fb8…
06-23 10:35:55	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	31	86¢	$27	0x41fa15…
06-23 07:34:19	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	31	86¢	$27	0x9159b4…
06-23 00:22:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	57	52¢	$30	0x47fa29…
06-22 22:31:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0xeca447…
06-21 19:02:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	35	77¢	$27	0xff479b…
06-21 18:24:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	35	77¢	$27	0x53eddc…
06-18 22:52:05	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	89¢	$28	0xd19e76…
06-18 19:54:29	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x9b30c2…
06-18 10:48:07	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	54	52¢	$28	0x708b73…
06-18 09:17:05	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x3d224a…
06-18 09:16:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	44	53¢	$23	0x6f74c3…
06-17 01:01:32	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x940ff8…
06-17 00:58:46	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x6d10cd…
06-14 13:20:25	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	33	86¢	$28	0x25f1d0…
06-13 18:41:24	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0xe8345e…
06-13 16:03:51	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xb9da90…
06-13 12:39:36	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0x94b4cc…
06-13 07:57:58	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x32c27d…
06-12 20:02:06	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	97	23¢	$22	0x8b4ff3…
06-12 10:48:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	51	54¢	$28	0x1aa1da…
06-12 08:20:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	51	55¢	$28	0x12191b…
06-10 19:59:57	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xdaed03…
06-10 19:59:57	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0xc8ddc6…
06-10 15:28:15	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	32	80¢	$26	0xb45f36…
06-10 09:44:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	62¢	$29	0x2d558d…
06-10 08:15:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	62¢	$29	0x0bc507…
06-10 04:34:51	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x940bab…
06-10 01:36:04	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x1bc7c0…
06-08 17:05:57	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$10	0x183155…
06-08 17:05:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	33	54¢	$18	0x1804ff…
06-08 15:28:13	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0xe1d091…
06-08 15:28:13	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0x474d86…
06-07 19:00:52	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	39	71¢	$28	0xa2aa7a…
06-07 14:53:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	39	71¢	$28	0x739e54…
06-07 11:25:33	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xdbf6d3…
06-07 08:09:58	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0xfa6952…
06-06 20:18:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	41	67¢	$27	0x9de747…
06-06 17:34:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	41	67¢	$27	0x3925cc…
06-06 14:57:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x988d75…
06-06 11:03:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x5d5c91…
06-05 11:19:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	89	19¢	$17	0x369af9…
06-05 09:45:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	19¢	$9	0x8ae015…
06-05 09:45:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	43	19¢	$8	0x0e1dbc…
06-05 07:13:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	49¢	$16	0xf59441…
06-05 02:18:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	49¢	$16	0xa9a768…
06-05 02:09:55	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0x550c72…
06-04 23:42:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x16a379…
06-04 15:54:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x95541c…
06-04 15:54:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x3aac0c…
06-04 15:54:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x1eb795…
06-04 12:31:07	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x28d36b…
06-03 17:50:00	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	22¢	$8	0x275100…
06-03 16:09:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	37	22¢	$8	0x6bca7e…
06-03 15:45:21	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	93	4¢	$4	0x0bda96…
06-03 10:35:14	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x55d907…
06-03 10:35:12	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0xd7106b…
06-02 15:14:03	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xdfba8f…
06-02 13:43:05	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x05a670…
06-02 09:18:03	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	97	31¢	$30	0x03a2f8…
06-02 07:04:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x24e1fb…
06-02 03:35:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	68	3¢	$2	0x00f830…
06-02 03:35:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x142ad2…
06-02 00:58:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xa5aba0…
06-02 00:58:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	96	3¢	$3	0xe97dbd…
05-31 23:34:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	1¢	$1	0xd5058b…
05-31 23:34:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	1¢	$1	0x7f92df…
05-31 23:34:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0x1d6ecf…
05-31 21:58:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x315535…
05-31 21:58:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	2¢	$1	0x03f5e6…
05-31 21:58:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	2¢	$1	0x032cff…
05-31 12:20:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x675c2c…
05-31 09:13:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x855a6b…
05-31 09:13:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x14a0a1…
05-30 20:39:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0xabddf3…
05-30 17:27:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x007bd8…
05-30 15:08:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0xb8f70b…
05-30 15:08:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x0f0f77…
05-30 13:29:53	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$33	0x4e75e7…
05-30 06:54:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	69¢	$6	0x621a90…
05-30 06:53:20	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	36	69¢	$25	0x9c3c83…
05-30 03:12:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	28	69¢	$19	0x8a1382…
05-30 03:12:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x42eb66…
05-29 20:28:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x8023eb…
05-29 20:28:43	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xd34b6a…
05-29 17:21:09	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xe2e121…
05-29 15:20:52	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x56c127…
05-29 11:25:09	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x5eb048…
05-28 20:29:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	45	74¢	$33	0xaeb10c…
05-28 11:28:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xe7f772…
05-28 11:28:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	90	13¢	$12	0x850d34…
05-28 10:21:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	92	12¢	$11	0xd9da30…
05-27 22:31:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x201068…
05-27 20:30:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	44¢	$29	0xf2af15…
05-26 22:02:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xb847e9…
05-26 22:02:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x1ecdee…
05-26 19:12:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0xeefe12…
05-25 06:41:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x7bcccf…
05-25 06:40:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0xfa16f0…