Creepy-Vegetation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$280

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

73.2%

Resolved

586

Trades

2,563

lifetime

Volume

$44.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$556

20 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 17:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 166 days

Categories

Other

58% 54% -$111

Politics

40% 63% -$170

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$47

Sports

1% 59% +$14

Crypto

0% 40% -$23

Tech

0% 50% -$36

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+90	$57	72¢	$65	+$9	11-02 18:48
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+69	$50	70¢	$48	-$2	11-02 16:35
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+50	$46	92¢	$46	$0	11-03 07:23
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	+70	$31	64¢	$45	+$14	11-03 00:36
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+50	$46	90¢	$45	-$1	11-01 01:11
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+50	$43	88¢	$44	+$1	11-02 19:00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+50	$35	74¢	$37	+$2	10-31 08:14
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+50	$33	72¢	$36	+$3	10-15 07:12
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+99	$34	30¢	$30	-$4	09-26 09:33
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+45	$38	62¢	$28	-$10	11-03 11:28
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	+51	$23	52¢	$26	+$3	11-01 19:03
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+50	$34	40¢	$20	-$14	10-03 10:23
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+31	$20	62¢	$19	-$1	10-25 14:56
another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	+25	$20	74¢	$19	-$1	10-20 20:52
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+23	$13	70¢	$16	+$3	10-31 15:50
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+50	$20	26¢	$13	-$6	09-23 22:13
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+100	$11	10¢	$10	-$1	11-02 18:31
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+95	$9	6¢	$5	-$4	11-02 07:11
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+100	$3	2¢	$2	-$1	10-15 08:50
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+20	$2	5¢	$1	-$1	08-28 07:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	37	$1.3K	698	698	+0	No	+$49	05-14 17:25
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	18	$703	378	378	+0	Yes	+$11	01-25 01:48
Fed rate hike in 2026?	24	$680	895	241	+654	Yes	+$240	09-16 18:27
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$654	233	467	-234	Yes	-$10	01-21 13:28
will the bank of israel make no change to the bank of israel interest rate after the february decision	22	$594	399	380	+19	Yes	+$91	02-23 11:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	9	$588	382	382	+0	Yes	+$3	02-10 12:41
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	23	$540	397	397	+0	Yes	+$135	06-29 06:26
kanye west performs in russia by october 31	11	$496	287	287	+0	No	+$47	09-29 15:41
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	15	$443	382	382	+0	No	+$1	05-17 12:11
will the central bank of colombia announce an increase at the march meeting	21	$424	237	237	+0	Yes	+$12	03-27 08:59
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	10	$380	303	175	+128	No	+$24	03-28 15:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$379	221	221	+0	No	+$23	04-24 15:06
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	11	$359	334	334	+0	Yes	-$11	03-09 10:28
iran strike on israel by january 31	9	$344	247	182	+65	No	+$31	01-26 17:17
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	22	$343	368	496	-128	Yes	-$122	06-21 03:53
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	29	$342	308	104	+204	open	—	11-01 21:18
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	5	$334	177	177	+0	No	$0	05-29 14:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	19	$324	316	87	+229	Yes	+$64	07-28 10:56
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	8	$310	173	173	+0	No	+$8	01-15 03:56
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	8	$302	244	244	+0	Yes	+$25	09-02 09:46
will the bank of mexico announce a decrease at the march meeting	34	$301	473	236	+236	Yes	-$79	03-26 15:18
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	12	$300	360	360	+0	open	—	10-27 20:56
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	15	$292	202	202	+0	No	+$35	06-22 09:56
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	14	$286	169	169	+0	Yes	+$24	04-28 07:26
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?	13	$286	209	176	+33	Yes	+$83	07-23 12:49
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	8	$282	172	172	+0	No	+$44	06-24 06:07
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$270	179	179	+0	Yes	+$40	04-13 08:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$266	257	257	+0	Yes	-$86	04-08 00:10
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?	17	$263	290	69	+221	Yes	+$71	07-20 17:34
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	8	$262	144	144	+0	No	+$13	02-11 15:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 17:16:46	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x8a169a…
11-03 17:16:16	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate by 50+ bps at the January meeting?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc4c037…
11-03 17:09:39	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x21f140…
11-03 11:28:21	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x9f06d8…
11-03 07:23:25	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2c27b7…
11-03 00:36:28	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x86001f…
11-02 19:00:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x4bab9f…
11-02 19:00:00	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0xe8fce4…
11-02 18:48:12	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	72¢	$22	0x1f47d9…
11-02 18:32:45	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x1944d3…
11-02 18:31:12	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x89a72b…
11-02 16:35:31	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xada6c3…
11-02 16:35:00	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xa24cc1…
11-02 16:23:33	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x580749…
11-02 15:30:24	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xe92765…
11-02 07:31:33	Will Islam Makhachev retire from the UFC by the end of 2027?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd6cd74…
11-02 07:31:33	Will Islam Makhachev retire from the UFC by the end of 2027?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x17546a…
11-02 07:11:13	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xe11d9a…
11-02 06:50:33	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	21¢	$19	0x86f379…
11-01 22:16:09	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xb2ea3b…
11-01 21:18:54	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0xba2ab6…
11-01 21:18:54	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xb637c6…
11-01 19:03:39	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	49	42¢	$21	0x6aae0c…
11-01 18:14:31	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	45	12¢	$5	0x5ea0c6…
11-01 17:49:10	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0x9893c3…
11-01 17:47:37	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	56	97¢	$54	0x2742c2…
11-01 17:30:31	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x0da001…
11-01 13:27:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x4cdd7e…
11-01 01:11:06	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x40ba99…
11-01 01:03:48	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xce77b4…
11-01 01:03:13	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x9a5b47…
10-31 21:09:43	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x605333…
10-31 21:02:30	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$3	0xcba6ab…
10-31 19:47:28	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xbfbcac…
10-31 15:50:21	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	75¢	$51	0x9db0e8…
10-31 13:28:49	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x9350c0…
10-31 13:25:37	Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?	Anduril	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0x797f96…
10-31 13:22:25	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0x6f2149…
10-31 08:14:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xe98d41…
10-30 14:18:40	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xd4a82b…
10-30 01:08:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xf2e48d…
10-29 23:56:39	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x79123e…
10-29 23:33:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xa9cb2c…
10-28 12:58:37	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xa9ecdc…
10-28 12:51:47	Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x96d128…
10-28 07:30:10	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xeedd77…
10-28 07:29:50	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x49c1f2…
10-28 07:29:19	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x13f925…
10-28 07:28:37	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3f1d0e…
10-28 07:27:58	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xdb97ce…
10-27 22:06:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	32	37¢	$12	0x212cb0…
10-27 21:40:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xff9a19…
10-27 20:59:21	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x8d96c8…
10-27 20:56:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	98	51¢	$50	0x004cdf…
10-27 06:37:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	33	54¢	$18	0x77bfe6…
10-26 20:19:21	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	72	7¢	$5	0x337d8d…
10-26 19:55:11	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc92fef…
10-26 14:34:18	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	76	84¢	$64	0xa1faed…
10-26 00:26:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xe6cc4d…
10-25 22:01:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x0aab8c…
10-25 21:17:29	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x5263b8…
10-25 14:56:53	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x54786f…
10-25 14:28:18	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0xadc50b…
10-25 14:12:06	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x62f60d…
10-25 13:43:44	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xad6da8…
10-25 13:43:42	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x44db64…
10-25 11:57:00	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc801cf…
10-25 11:56:06	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xcc9f2d…
10-23 13:56:45	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x892cc3…
10-22 23:42:50	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	54	32¢	$17	0x761493…
10-21 18:13:14	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0xa1c1c0…
10-21 18:12:02	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	39	78¢	$31	0xe52892…
10-21 08:50:50	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	20¢	$7	0x906d4c…
10-20 21:25:35	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xaa1309…
10-20 21:23:03	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xda43d0…
10-20 21:08:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	23	85¢	$20	0x2dc092…
10-20 20:52:48	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0x6153aa…
10-20 20:49:45	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	35	79¢	$28	0x6c2a04…
10-20 20:26:27	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	30	81¢	$25	0x0c6534…
10-20 18:44:57	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x26d92b…
10-20 16:47:26	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x051cdd…
10-20 10:01:05	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x0d0061…
10-20 09:06:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x32a1c7…
10-20 09:05:29	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xe4b7c6…
10-20 09:05:01	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xad0fe8…
10-20 06:41:32	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0xa6afbb…
10-20 06:00:08	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	22	81¢	$17	0xb17b7b…
10-19 22:25:57	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x3fc01e…
10-19 22:25:36	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x5a3fad…
10-19 22:25:00	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	23	85¢	$20	0x53e242…
10-19 22:21:27	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xc4a729…
10-19 22:20:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0xfb1eb2…
10-19 22:18:27	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xefedfc…
10-19 22:17:57	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x32fb76…
10-19 22:17:26	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	22	84¢	$18	0x61d801…
10-19 22:14:51	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x0513dc…
10-19 20:42:45	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x8070d0…
10-19 20:16:14	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xa429cf…
10-19 19:35:27	Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x420d89…
10-19 19:34:57	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	9	87¢	$8	0xf3aef6…