Flamboyant-Barometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.97K

Unrealized P&L

+$608

Hit rate

67.9%

Resolved

1,643

Trades

10,796

lifetime

Volume

$228.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$3.61K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-07 19:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 209 days

Categories

Politics

41% 66% +$7,636

Other

36% 51% -$411

Sports

18% 58% -$1,373

Crypto

2% 82% +$218

Tech

2% 26% -$283

Pop-Culture

1% 73% +$189

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+700	$563	94¢	$654	+$92	10-17 13:49
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+652	$247	88¢	$571	+$324	10-16 14:46
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	+400	$298	92¢	$369	+$71	08-31 22:53
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	+250	$146	89¢	$222	+$76	10-01 11:07
Will Doncaster Rovers FC win on 2026-11-14?	No	+200	$190	100¢	$199	+$9	11-07 19:13
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-11-05?	No	+200	$197	99¢	$199	+$2	11-05 21:40
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?	Yes	+200	$198	99¢	$197	-$1	11-05 22:29
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?	No	+200	$198	98¢	$196	-$2	11-05 21:55
Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-11-14?	No	+200	$190	97¢	$194	+$3	11-07 19:13
Will Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Leyton Orient FC end in a draw?	Yes	+200	$190	97¢	$194	+$3	11-07 19:14
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?	No	+172	$170	100¢	$171	+$1	11-06 11:51
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	+122	$74	87¢	$106	+$33	10-09 03:43
will zohran mamdani be time person of the year 2026	No	+100	$61	76¢	$76	+$16	08-22 12:22
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+68	$44	88¢	$59	+$15	08-22 14:51
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	+50	$24	87¢	$44	+$20	08-28 17:49
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+37	$12	100¢	$37	+$25	11-05 20:59
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+500	$22	6¢	$32	+$10	09-20 14:14
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+100	$17	29¢	$29	+$12	09-03 15:50
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?	Yes	+24	$17	70¢	$17	+$0	10-28 17:37
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+120	$25	13¢	$16	-$9	11-02 21:47
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	+118	$6	12¢	$14	+$7	08-22 14:11
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	+225	$91	4¢	$10	-$81	10-19 10:12
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+100	$19	2¢	$2	-$17	08-31 19:01
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	-61	-$17	2¢	$-1	+$16	06-04 17:24
Nicholas Galitzine announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+500	$1	0¢	$1	$0	08-31 19:28
Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+291	$9	0¢	$0	-$9	09-02 17:59
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+254	$8	0¢	$0	-$7	09-03 11:53
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+50	$3	0¢	$0	-$3	09-02 19:05
Richard Madden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+7	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-01 02:48
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+0	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	09-01 02:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $APBC?	8	$9.4K	4,734	4,734	+0	open	—	09-13 17:00
nba den mem 2026 01 25	189	$3.8K	4,156	4,141	+15	Grizzlies	-$118	02-14 14:47
netanyahu out by march 31 854	31	$3.3K	1,799	1,719	+80	No	+$31	03-19 21:25
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07?	30	$2.6K	1,985	627	+1,358	No	+$23	06-07 18:35
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	5	$2.0K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	No	-$6	06-07 18:38
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	10	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	10-28 10:52
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	10	$1.9K	1,700	1,700	+0	Yes	+$68	10-15 22:43
will trump say million or billion or trillion 15 times during the 2026 state of the union address 296	31	$1.8K	1,314	742	+572	Yes	+$73	02-24 21:20
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI?	3	$1.8K	900	900	+0	open	—	09-06 17:25
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	13	$1.7K	1,650	650	+1,000	No	-$738	10-17 08:32
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	19	$1.7K	1,020	765	+255	No	+$26	06-26 16:55
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	8	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	04-15 19:02
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	63	$1.6K	15,100	15,100	-0	No	+$48	06-21 21:01
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	15	$1.5K	777	887	-110	No	+$146	04-22 07:59
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	40	$1.5K	1,404	1,404	+0	No	+$208	08-31 19:19
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	18	$1.5K	933	953	-20	Yes	+$173	05-06 13:51
ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 total 3pt5	8	$1.5K	1,100	1,200	-100	Under	-$25	02-17 20:00
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	16	$1.3K	1,160	350	+809	No	+$90	06-15 15:00
another us government shutdown by february 14	14	$1.3K	660	660	+0	No	+$3	02-14 19:57
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	11	$1.3K	705	805	-100	No	+$232	04-21 16:52
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	30	$1.2K	1,780	1,080	+700	open	—	10-17 13:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$1.2K	650	650	-0	No	+$24	06-27 13:41
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	7	$1.2K	944	312	+632	No	+$26	04-28 00:01
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	32	$1.2K	1,200	1,000	+200	No	-$105	05-30 18:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$8	04-22 12:36
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	47	$1.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	+$5	05-06 18:49
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	20	$1.1K	1,300	900	+400	No	+$225	11-03 19:40
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	29	$1.1K	850	920	-70	No	+$25	04-22 14:50
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	30	$1.1K	885	728	+156	Yes	+$20	04-07 20:32
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	31	$1.1K	1,021	1,021	+0	open	—	09-29 16:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 19:14:16	Will Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Leyton Orient FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	62	95¢	$59	0x510f65…
11-07 19:14:00	Will Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Leyton Orient FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	109	95¢	$104	0xfaf5fe…
11-07 19:13:55	Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xefd6ec…
11-07 19:13:54	Will Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Leyton Orient FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0xccf7a9…
11-07 19:13:54	Will Doncaster Rovers FC win on 2026-11-14?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xa78add…
11-06 11:51:06	Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?	No	BUY	172	99¢	$170	0xfb4d62…
11-05 22:29:54	Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	153	99¢	$152	0x23f105…
11-05 22:29:52	Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x7d0d5f…
11-05 21:55:10	Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xd6fb2f…
11-05 21:55:10	Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xcb85d5…
11-05 21:40:30	Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	138	98¢	$135	0x8c74ab…
11-05 20:59:37	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x6dbe28…
11-05 20:45:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xa78822…
11-05 20:42:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xb4a14e…
11-05 20:23:45	Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$62	0xa985ce…
11-05 20:05:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x09eb53…
11-05 20:04:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0xc83614…
11-05 19:51:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xb9fb41…
11-05 19:46:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x0644c5…
11-05 19:43:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xccb975…
11-04 15:52:28	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0x938fb2…
11-04 15:11:36	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	9	42¢	$4	0x255fb6…
11-04 15:07:01	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	44	42¢	$18	0xbc2ddf…
11-04 12:23:27	Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x24a10e…
11-04 12:21:51	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xeb09d4…
11-04 11:36:46	Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	26	93¢	$24	0xe4b543…
11-04 11:35:54	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xed7e4a…
11-04 11:35:54	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	19	41¢	$8	0x79ea99…
11-04 11:35:06	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x72054b…
11-03 19:40:19	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	33	41¢	$14	0x59f7fd…
11-03 18:52:13	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd74994…
11-03 18:28:22	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xc17660…
11-03 18:22:12	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x413bf3…
11-03 17:31:52	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd443ef…
11-03 17:29:21	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x2b2c72…
11-03 17:27:10	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x7bb997…
11-03 17:25:03	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	63¢	$22	0x9dff82…
11-03 17:23:34	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	63¢	$41	0x2efcd3…
11-03 17:21:33	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x16ae58…
11-03 17:21:27	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xf75fa0…
11-02 21:47:10	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x878846…
11-02 18:15:52	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x0e65e8…
11-02 11:22:46	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x304784…
10-30 18:57:42	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	72¢	$360	0x17d9f0…
10-30 18:57:03	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x066229…
10-30 18:47:30	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x1e3f93…
10-29 23:21:10	Will "Dune: Part Three" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x014408…
10-29 17:48:14	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	90	21¢	$19	0xb0e0d1…
10-29 10:57:58	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0xcf8a68…
10-29 05:13:31	Will "Dune: Part Three" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0xaa04de…
10-29 04:37:02	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x6945f6…
10-28 23:35:10	Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x2a2d69…
10-28 23:31:16	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$10	0x94bb1f…
10-28 19:00:11	Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x723061…
10-28 18:29:46	Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	SELL	103	65¢	$67	0xa6a4af…
10-28 17:47:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x8a3b3d…
10-28 17:44:52	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	280	26¢	$73	0x53ce10…
10-28 17:44:34	Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	SELL	97	65¢	$63	0x96ab08…
10-28 17:39:08	Trump on $250 bill this year?	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x328aa6…
10-28 17:38:29	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	300	44¢	$132	0x42d465…
10-28 17:37:50	Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?	Yes	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0x3880e5…
10-28 17:37:40	Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau?	Yes	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0x85531c…
10-28 17:35:32	Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x668e1d…
10-28 11:17:31	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	62	44¢	$27	0x59b456…
10-28 11:12:07	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	0	44¢	$0	0xc805ee…
10-28 11:12:07	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	0	44¢	$0	0x9116b9…
10-28 10:52:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	375	55¢	$206	0x0d8bd4…
10-28 10:49:05	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xbae100…
10-28 10:49:05	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	38	44¢	$17	0x817076…
10-28 10:48:05	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x377eab…
10-28 10:44:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,125	55¢	$619	0x705a3d…
10-26 18:58:47	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x494d98…
10-26 18:58:41	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0xae2c94…
10-26 18:35:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	800	73¢	$584	0x35c7fb…
10-26 18:15:57	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xda82f3…
10-26 16:39:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	186	64¢	$119	0x69e044…
10-26 16:39:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x129a03…
10-26 16:39:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x0902f4…
10-26 16:33:08	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xc96fd0…
10-26 16:33:02	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xdb2d28…
10-26 16:33:00	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x04aaef…
10-26 16:24:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$31	0x4fab7c…
10-26 16:21:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	27	60¢	$16	0xc3d224…
10-26 16:21:36	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x9317d6…
10-26 16:21:27	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xe8f2bb…
10-26 16:19:42	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x8097c5…
10-26 16:19:33	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x4fe250…
10-26 16:19:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xe5807b…
10-26 16:19:05	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xf5d3c4…
10-26 16:18:30	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x498980…
10-26 16:18:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x0419a4…
10-26 16:17:54	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xe7454c…
10-26 16:17:54	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x1a5e7e…
10-26 16:17:54	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x0c1560…
10-26 16:17:53	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x8d42b7…
10-26 16:17:51	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x8b86b2…
10-26 16:16:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xe4d3c2…
10-26 16:15:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xb8309f…
10-26 16:15:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	0	61¢	$0	0x96803c…
10-26 16:14:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x56b094…