Reliable-Council — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$779

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

40.1%

Resolved

Trades

653

lifetime

Volume

$38.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-02 03:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

74% 12% +$879

Politics

24% 0% $-100

Sports

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes		+45	$10	8¢	$4	$-6	06-02 03:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	15	$5.3K	13,844	5,131	+8,714	open	—	02-14 17:38
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	8	$2.9K	2,428	2,428	+0	open	—	04-06 05:49
will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	31	$1.7K	6,313	4,131	+2,182	open	—	04-20 14:12
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	19	$1.5K	14,466	12,506	+1,959	open	—	04-25 11:47
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$1.4K	961	961	+0	open	—	03-08 23:30
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	15	$1.4K	7,193	5,156	+2,037	open	—	04-25 09:56
will crime 101 opening weekend box office be between 17m and 20m	10	$1.3K	7,930	0	+7,930	open	—	02-16 16:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$1.2K	3,393	2,967	+426	open	—	01-14 15:53
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	3	$1.2K	662	662	+0	open	—	03-16 03:17
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$1.1K	770	770	+0	open	—	04-12 19:51
will israel strike lebanon on february 10 2026	2	$1.1K	1,013	1,013	+0	open	—	02-09 22:51
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	18	$968	8,188	6,682	+1,506	open	—	04-21 01:25
will solo mio opening weekend box office be between 5pt5m and 7m	2	$829	1,646	1,646	+0	open	—	02-09 15:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$644	1,621	403	+1,217	open	—	02-28 21:50
will solo mio opening weekend box office be less than 4m	8	$607	11,673	0	+11,673	open	—	02-07 06:37
will project hail mary 4th weekend box office be greater than 22m	8	$560	9,194	4,597	+4,597	open	—	04-12 14:27
will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be less than 31m	23	$544	3,838	0	+3,838	open	—	04-19 07:28
will hoppers 3rd weekend box office be between 18m and 19pt5m	8	$527	2,046	0	+2,046	open	—	03-23 20:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	3	$521	336	336	+0	open	—	04-21 21:07
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	10	$507	9,660	10,674	-1,014	open	—	01-28 01:46
will trump attend ufc 327	14	$474	2,542	2,303	+239	open	—	04-11 10:02
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$430	247	247	+0	open	—	03-11 16:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$412	1,038	1,038	+0	open	—	04-21 16:15
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	7	$400	2,352	504	+1,848	open	—	01-31 14:07
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	4	$386	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	04-28 00:29
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 75m and 80m	8	$342	2,210	0	+2,210	open	—	03-23 16:55
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	8	$303	2,305	2,305	+0	open	—	04-04 17:42
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	5	$302	845	243	+602	open	—	04-06 15:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$298	808	154	+654	open	—	02-28 21:18
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	2	$290	158	158	+0	open	—	04-17 08:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 03:52:08	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x7d1e9a…
05-31 23:41:05	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x140043…
05-31 19:58:27	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x2255a6…
05-28 21:07:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$30	0xfedf23…
05-28 21:07:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0x7e73e8…
05-27 18:03:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x12b668…
05-27 10:31:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xdf0876…
05-27 01:22:37	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	75	73¢	$55	0x04ebf5…
05-26 22:15:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	33	72¢	$24	0xdb13e1…
05-26 14:02:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	340	3¢	$10	0xabf018…
05-26 11:00:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	1,000	3¢	$33	0x621569…
05-26 03:45:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$15	0x5809f6…
05-26 01:58:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xb775fb…
05-25 21:18:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xec8df5…
05-25 21:09:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xae152a…
05-24 19:19:30	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	SELL	197	1¢	$1	0x53d583…
05-23 13:01:22	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	197	5¢	$10	0x2b512b…
05-16 23:11:50	Will "In the Grey" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	210	1¢	$2	0x93fab8…
05-16 23:11:43	Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	154	1¢	$1	0xc98191…
05-16 00:33:32	Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	106	9¢	$10	0xa56c36…
05-15 23:45:28	Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xf37f7c…
05-15 23:45:09	Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x15f4ef…
05-15 23:19:36	Will "In the Grey" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	210	17¢	$35	0x5253b1…
05-15 03:56:38	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,192	3¢	$32	0x3e175f…
05-13 21:45:37	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,782	5¢	$88	0x1c1f1b…
05-13 21:42:07	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,192	8¢	$100	0xe74fa4…
05-07 18:18:50	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	SELL	663	4¢	$24	0x05ff7e…
05-04 19:42:08	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	663	5¢	$30	0x2b880c…
04-28 00:38:30	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	812	8¢	$65	0xc46917…
04-28 00:29:40	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	SELL	2,200	3¢	$65	0x8c4377…
04-28 00:21:38	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x69f901…
04-28 00:21:24	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x22da73…
04-27 08:36:08	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	Yes	SELL	111	95¢	$105	0x6220b1…
04-26 19:06:42	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xd3d1c9…
04-26 17:54:28	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	112	71¢	$80	0x5eb7fc…
04-26 15:47:36	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	306	7¢	$20	0x507f41…
04-26 07:14:32	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	290	10¢	$30	0x8bde6f…
04-25 23:10:58	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x7418b8…
04-25 11:47:06	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	1,348	0¢	$5	0x2e6887…
04-25 09:56:06	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,008	11¢	$107	0x4ab586…
04-25 08:41:40	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	SELL	10,354	0¢	$24	0xe7ee5d…
04-25 06:53:16	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?	Yes	BUY	332	9¢	$30	0xcf263f…
04-25 03:22:16	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	221	1¢	$2	0xc1d3c4…
04-25 03:17:34	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	1,176	4¢	$44	0x42a0af…
04-25 02:57:22	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	7,692	1¢	$100	0xa0603c…
04-25 02:09:54	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0x9e9e2d…
04-25 02:09:42	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	798	1¢	$10	0x25ee43…
04-25 01:27:36	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x7d13b9…
04-25 01:20:24	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	625	2¢	$15	0x7e755a…
04-25 01:19:28	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x794b39…
04-25 01:17:46	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	532	2¢	$10	0x527ea7…
04-24 23:07:16	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	1,077	3¢	$30	0x4ed59e…
04-24 22:57:20	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	Yes	SELL	164	0¢	$1	0xe77228…
04-24 22:56:50	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	Yes	SELL	503	0¢	$1	0x183825…
04-24 22:56:40	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	SELL	151	3¢	$4	0x17d9ef…
04-24 22:56:16	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?	Yes	SELL	2,183	0¢	$2	0xf07b55…
04-24 22:55:26	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	SELL	19	36¢	$7	0xc56dc2…
04-24 01:31:56	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	Yes	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0x2a6b75…
04-24 01:31:28	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	Yes	BUY	529	2¢	$10	0xf49882…
04-24 01:30:54	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x56ae2f…
04-23 21:38:30	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x2b40c4…
04-23 21:00:46	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	Yes	SELL	212	2¢	$4	0x54be02…
04-23 21:00:40	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	Yes	SELL	167	2¢	$4	0x2e8807…
04-23 21:00:30	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	SELL	2,001	32¢	$636	0xb439d4…
04-22 15:04:32	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	929	17¢	$161	0xbf9227…
04-22 14:51:08	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0x06ef4c…
04-22 14:45:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xabee85…
04-22 14:41:48	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	1,060	12¢	$130	0x7cce7d…
04-21 21:52:54	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	211	14¢	$30	0x8fcf95…
04-21 21:07:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	336	96¢	$324	0x2a4d4e…
04-21 16:26:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	196	80¢	$157	0xa5fede…
04-21 16:17:34	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	116	30¢	$35	0x91742b…
04-21 16:16:24	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?	Yes	BUY	436	5¢	$20	0xf0393e…
04-21 16:16:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	361	28¢	$100	0x0b3302…
04-21 16:15:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,038	30¢	$312	0xf271f1…
04-21 10:09:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,038	10¢	$100	0x6a87b6…
04-21 10:09:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	139	29¢	$40	0x10309e…
04-21 05:14:36	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	402	25¢	$100	0xed411a…
04-21 03:01:34	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	134	30¢	$40	0x0555bd…
04-21 01:25:00	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,506	7¢	$100	0x9667d7…
04-21 01:24:50	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,029	10¢	$105	0x371766…
04-21 01:23:24	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	324	31¢	$100	0x2c8226…
04-20 18:55:50	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xb157e4…
04-20 18:54:56	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	No	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0x77df4c…
04-20 16:39:12	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x95e378…
04-20 14:17:58	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	541	0¢	$1	0xbd127e…
04-20 14:13:58	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	484	0¢	$1	0x9401fa…
04-20 14:12:56	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	632	47¢	$300	0x5a3bd9…
04-20 11:36:54	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x8b073f…
04-20 11:36:20	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0xccdf74…
04-20 09:10:32	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x5f119c…
04-20 07:04:20	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	257	39¢	$100	0x8bad74…
04-20 07:03:52	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	10¢	$104	0xcf22be…
04-20 05:57:20	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	244	1¢	$2	0x6cefaf…
04-20 05:56:10	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	137	22¢	$30	0x276b33…
04-20 05:36:34	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x2648fb…
04-20 05:36:02	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	261	38¢	$100	0x256753…
04-20 05:34:54	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	532	1¢	$5	0x341f6a…
04-20 05:33:38	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$1	0x6b210c…
04-20 05:33:38	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	37	32¢	$12	0x313fe3…