Realized P&L (7d)
-$747
Unrealized P&L
+$265
Hit rate
2.3%
Resolved (7d)
495
Trades (7d)
7
17,680 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$50
$176.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$2.93K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-04
last 10-31 21:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 30 days
Categories
Other
57% 5% -$1,674
Politics
32% 4% -$402
Sports
4% 10% -$16
Tech
3% 2% -$72
Crypto
2% 0% -$22
Pop-Culture
1% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 2454 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $153 94¢ $187 +$34 10-25 13:24
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? No +200 $160 86¢ $171 +$11 10-25 12:41
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +190 $124 82¢ $157 +$33 10-10 05:54
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No +200 $168 77¢ $154 -$14 10-24 20:25
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +220 $150 68¢ $148 -$2 10-25 09:12
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +173 $121 78¢ $135 +$14 10-25 09:52
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +200 $133 67¢ $134 +$1 10-24 16:24
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +250 $162 54¢ $134 -$29 10-11 00:21
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +250 $94 46¢ $116 +$22 10-11 00:21
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No +120 $94 90¢ $107 +$14 10-12 14:07
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Yes +100 $33 100¢ $100 +$67 10-24 15:41
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +100 $64 98¢ $98 +$34 10-20 05:58
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +120 $85 80¢ $96 +$11 10-12 14:58
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +103 $66 86¢ $89 +$23 10-13 11:07
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +110 $63 74¢ $81 +$18 10-10 22:38
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +100 $76 80¢ $80 +$4 10-08 21:57
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No +100 $86 78¢ $78 -$7 10-25 14:19
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? No +100 $76 78¢ $78 +$2 10-11 15:33
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +100 $73 76¢ $76 +$3 10-24 15:08
ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026 No +120 $92 64¢ $76 -$16 10-24 19:28
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +90 $53 81¢ $73 +$20 10-12 20:40
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes +220 $71 32¢ $72 +$0 10-25 09:12
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No +80 $60 83¢ $66 +$6 10-11 19:41
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +80 $57 82¢ $66 +$9 10-09 12:45
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $71 33¢ $66 -$5 10-24 16:24
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +60 $52 98¢ $59 +$7 10-09 20:18
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027? No +72 $56 81¢ $59 +$3 10-12 19:58
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026? No +60 $49 96¢ $57 +$9 10-09 18:05
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +100 $61 56¢ $56 -$5 10-25 12:11
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +100 $60 56¢ $56 -$4 10-25 12:11