Realized P&L (30d)
-$2.30K
Unrealized P&L
+$709
Hit rate
2.5%
Resolved (30d)
1,672
Trades (30d)
6,830
17,684 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$70.8K
$176.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$3.73K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-04
last 11-08 21:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 37 days
Categories
Other
57% 5% -$1,908
Politics
32% 4% -$500
Sports
4% 12% -$18
Tech
3% 2% -$76
Crypto
2% 0% -$22
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
26 active days in 12wk • peak 2454 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $153 97¢ $194 +$41 10-25 13:24
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? No +200 $160 92¢ $185 +$25 10-25 12:41
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +173 $121 98¢ $169 +$48 10-25 09:52
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +250 $162 66¢ $166 +$4 10-11 00:21
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +190 $124 87¢ $165 +$42 10-10 05:54
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No +200 $168 79¢ $159 -$9 10-24 20:25
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +200 $133 76¢ $152 +$19 10-24 16:24
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? Yes +165 $83 89¢ $147 +$63 10-11 13:15
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +220 $150 66¢ $144 -$6 10-25 09:12
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T? No +142 $88 99¢ $140 +$53 10-11 12:22
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31? Yes +148 $52 89¢ $132 +$80 10-13 01:03
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +241 $138 52¢ $125 -$13 10-24 20:45
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? No +150 $124 80¢ $120 -$4 10-13 07:41
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No +120 $94 98¢ $118 +$24 10-12 14:07
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No +241 $113 48¢ $116 +$2 10-24 20:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +120 $85 94¢ $113 +$28 10-12 14:58
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%? No +120 $88 92¢ $111 +$23 10-17 05:50
Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +160 $90 64¢ $103 +$13 10-12 16:20
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-02 House election by 35%-40%? Yes +103 $23 99¢ $102 +$79 10-13 13:24
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? Yes +120 $42 84¢ $101 +$60 10-13 13:08
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +150 $114 68¢ $101 -$13 10-13 15:42
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%? No +100 $72 99¢ $99 +$27 10-12 19:58
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +120 $92 82¢ $99 +$7 10-24 19:28
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? Yes +110 $81 90¢ $99 +$18 10-13 08:30
Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026? Yes +120 $97 82¢ $98 +$2 10-13 16:14
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +100 $64 98¢ $98 +$34 10-20 05:58
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? Yes +120 $86 81¢ $98 +$12 10-13 04:24
Will there be 1 US aircraft carrier in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? No +100 $80 95¢ $95 +$14 10-09 10:00
Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? No +150 $74 62¢ $92 +$19 10-11 08:51
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No +103 $74 89¢ $92 +$18 10-11 14:10