Even-Caution — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$4

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

96.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

148 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.10K

$1.44K lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$51

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-07 21:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

55% 99% +$3

Politics

35% 80% -$7

Crypto

7% 100% +$0

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes		+52	$51	98¢	$51	+$1	11-07 21:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$115	80	40	+40	No	+$2	10-29 17:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	2	$90	45	45	+0	No	+$0	08-13 05:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	2	$87	45	45	+0	No	+$0	09-12 02:42
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$72	42	42	+0	Yes	+$11	11-04 06:54
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	09-30 13:02
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	1	$51	51	0	+51	Yes	+$0	07-01 01:49
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	1	$51	52	0	+52	open	—	11-07 21:41
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$46	48	0	+48	No	+$2	10-03 19:54
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-14 14:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-13 22:34
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	09-21 18:30
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-27 22:32
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	08-17 12:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$1	08-11 13:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	08-20 23:10
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	5	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:55
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$39	48	0	+48	No	-$39	10-15 10:14
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-30 17:28
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	3	$31	15	15	+0	No	+$0	08-27 15:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$0	07-30 00:00
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	3	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	10-15 09:32
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	04-28 07:28
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	02-25 04:20
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$0	05-15 17:57
Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-29 14:41
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-30 12:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-30 14:13
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	09-30 22:34
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-06 10:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 21:41:31	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0x828bb1…
11-04 06:54:25	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x5d3412…
11-03 14:07:48	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	74¢	$31	0x4aef29…
10-29 17:54:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$39	0xf0c20a…
10-28 11:19:02	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x3a6852…
10-27 19:13:06	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	37	95¢	$36	0xff285a…
10-27 19:10:15	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xb5563e…
10-27 12:46:42	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xee9b18…
10-20 21:56:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0x528afa…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	48	82¢	$39	0x887af5…
10-15 09:32:31	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x2b1851…
10-15 08:17:31	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xb970c8…
10-03 19:54:04	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	48	95¢	$46	0x8d90c1…
09-30 22:34:03	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x4b1504…
09-30 17:28:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xad234a…
09-30 14:13:36	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7de980…
09-30 13:02:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x0fdc18…
09-30 12:58:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9dd08e…
09-29 16:02:59	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x0ef06b…
09-29 14:41:06	Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd3a9c2…
09-29 06:55:48	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x94b235…
09-29 06:55:44	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8b7751…
09-29 04:53:26	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbe16e9…
09-29 04:07:45	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2caa7a…
09-28 03:38:56	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc1d421…
09-26 09:11:53	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfddd5f…
09-26 02:03:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x500bd1…
09-25 15:35:57	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3b1a3f…
09-23 18:57:01	Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x69544d…
09-22 19:57:36	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe0bc35…
09-21 18:30:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x0c60ea…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x801055…
09-12 02:42:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0xe744a9…
09-10 23:46:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x052681…
09-05 04:07:09	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xec9406…
08-27 22:32:40	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xb868e1…
08-27 15:07:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6ec761…
08-26 19:10:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3d3269…
08-26 03:10:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8f0209…
08-26 02:06:00	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x3e7345…
08-20 23:10:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x982b2e…
08-17 12:31:48	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x308900…
08-17 08:00:01	will ethereum dip to 900 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa98380…
08-14 14:41:49	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x19fe52…
08-13 22:34:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x987d0c…
08-13 05:33:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x2c96db…
08-12 09:36:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0xbe969c…
08-11 13:41:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x584085…
08-07 09:41:24	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c4b2d…
08-06 08:50:11	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe67514…
08-04 19:09:38	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0a54db…
08-04 03:21:00	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf3b842…
07-31 19:19:24	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x436417…
07-31 17:59:39	will nvda dip to 160 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xee6489…
07-30 20:02:00	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x74b014…
07-30 00:00:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0xca1d53…
07-29 14:33:39	will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa7c741…
07-29 07:50:47	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x48d770…
07-28 13:51:14	will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x01c705…
07-28 05:52:19	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xcae906…
07-27 19:33:33	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b8efa…
07-27 17:24:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x406556…
07-27 11:25:22	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3fa7db…
07-26 04:55:04	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc003f0…
07-25 21:11:42	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa6f71b…
07-25 12:43:55	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf70b13…
07-24 00:37:13	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc787f4…
07-24 00:33:55	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa75b73…
07-21 09:46:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5c54b2…
07-17 19:25:07	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca5924…
07-17 12:07:34	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x69ffd6…
07-01 01:49:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x916e47…
05-15 17:57:52	Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x17ce1a…
05-11 20:54:08	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x277ed7…
05-09 09:24:47	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x37e2a1…
05-09 07:54:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8372cf…
05-09 07:14:00	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc759e3…
05-08 15:33:42	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x580e1c…
05-08 05:42:17	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x682850…
05-07 13:59:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x58db35…
05-07 09:42:08	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x06981a…
05-07 05:00:04	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x87eb57…
05-06 17:50:42	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe5deea…
05-05 16:36:28	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0750f3…
05-05 11:13:30	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x591f5a…
05-05 04:29:02	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x15d3f3…
05-05 04:14:08	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x453981…
04-28 07:28:16	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x3f3727…
04-26 18:58:48	Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x0635a9…
04-25 05:50:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x297c9b…
04-24 03:20:20	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xdb010a…
04-23 02:32:30	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x3b4824…
04-21 11:14:40	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe72934…
04-20 23:55:34	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0d7787…
04-19 19:11:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6b5ddc…
04-19 15:41:48	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xb673de…
04-18 08:28:10	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9756bc…
04-17 05:24:54	Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe87e77…
04-16 13:33:00	Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbc25c2…
04-15 05:22:26	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x301357…