Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
-$46
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
489
lifetime
Volume
$25.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$52
Open exposure
$1.13K
19 positions
First seen
2026-05-13
last 06-10 00:53
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
84%
Other
16%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -458 $-195 70¢ $-323 $-128 05-29 16:39
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes +668 $60 24¢ $160 +$100 06-05 05:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +140 $92 74¢ $103 +$10 06-10 00:53
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -109 $-103 71¢ $-77 +$25 05-31 21:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -74 $-52 88¢ $-65 $-14 05-28 21:42
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No -85 $-54 76¢ $-65 $-10 06-02 21:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No -103 $-82 62¢ $-63 +$19 06-08 08:49
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -100 $-52 62¢ $-62 $-10 06-02 21:46
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No +48 $35 92¢ $45 +$9 06-09 13:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +333 $20 12¢ $39 +$19 06-08 11:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -71 $-36 45¢ $-32 +$4 06-02 21:47
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +68 $15 28¢ $19 +$4 06-05 17:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -98 $-23 16¢ $-16 +$6 06-02 21:48
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No +33 $8 46¢ $15 +$7 06-03 06:34
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +60 $23 24¢ $15 $-8 06-08 10:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -125 $-28 12¢ $-14 +$13 06-02 21:47
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No -14 $-13 96¢ $-14 $-1 05-27 20:50
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? No +47 $5 14¢ $7 +$2 06-08 17:32
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No +168 $96 $0 $-96 06-07 18:33