Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
+$11
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
918
lifetime
Volume
$47.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$51
Open exposure
$1.26K
18 positions
First seen
2026-05-13
last 07-01 05:55
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
85%
Other
15%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
49 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -458 $-195 70¢ $-318 $-123 05-29 16:39
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No +216 $125 100¢ $215 +$90 06-30 11:40
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +171 $65 96¢ $165 +$100 06-29 00:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +140 $92 90¢ $127 +$34 06-10 00:53
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -109 $-103 83¢ $-90 +$12 05-31 21:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +244 $41 30¢ $72 +$31 06-11 11:43
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +60 $-4 100¢ $60 +$64 06-12 21:46
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -100 $-52 58¢ $-58 $-6 06-02 21:46
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +182 $75 28¢ $50 $-25 06-30 15:07
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -54 $-30 70¢ $-38 $-8 06-20 16:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +45 $25 76¢ $34 +$9 06-16 16:33
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +68 $15 32¢ $21 +$6 06-05 17:50
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +121 $69 $4 $-65 06-28 20:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +333 $20 $1 $-19 06-08 11:56
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? No +47 $5 $1 $-4 06-08 17:32
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes +121 $56 $0 $-55 06-14 15:33
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No +83 $7 $0 $-7 06-27 20:13
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +60 $23 $0 $-23 06-08 10:46