Darling-Tragedy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$147

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

172

Trades

238

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-29 15:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Politics

48% 100% +$64

Crypto

25% 100% +$54

Other

24% 99% +$29

Sports

2% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+11	$9	57¢	$6	-$2	10-27 14:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	8	$1.2K	605	605	+0	open	—	10-28 10:58
will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	2	$619	310	310	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:32
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$614	314	314	+0	open	—	10-29 15:00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$387	507	204	+303	Yes	+$4	10-26 00:03
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	5	$354	185	185	+0	No	+$16	10-01 01:34
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$336	355	0	+355	No	+$18	10-03 23:08
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$323	164	164	+0	No	+$4	08-31 13:47
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$323	323	0	+323	No	+$0	09-16 03:53
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	2	$322	323	0	+323	No	+$1	09-22 11:58
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$317	319	0	+319	No	+$3	09-05 06:07
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$315	319	0	+319	Yes	+$4	09-10 12:15
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	4	$315	172	172	+0	No	+$3	10-18 18:48
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$277	282	0	+282	Yes	+$6	08-05 01:33
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	2	$276	277	0	+277	No	+$1	08-07 23:29
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$270	270	0	+270	No	+$1	06-26 05:33
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$269	271	0	+271	Yes	+$2	08-17 14:31
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$269	271	0	+271	Yes	+$2	08-20 16:47
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$258	260	0	+260	No	+$2	08-11 03:50
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$257	258	0	+258	No	+$1	08-09 20:53
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$251	267	0	+267	No	+$16	08-13 00:42
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$239	146	146	+0	No	+$1	10-24 14:07
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	2	$226	113	113	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:08
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	3	$211	106	106	+0	No	+$0	08-31 15:36
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$208	227	0	+227	Yes	+$19	05-04 19:25
grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	2	$205	218	0	+218	Yes	+$13	07-30 11:19
will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	1	$203	203	0	+203	No	+$0	06-30 00:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	1	$187	188	0	+188	No	+$1	10-01 02:54
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	2	$180	91	91	+0	Yes	+$1	10-08 21:34
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	1	$179	179	0	+179	Yes	+$0	04-30 22:19
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$169	175	0	+175	Yes	+$6	05-22 01:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:00:35	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	314	98¢	$308	0x6a62cf…
10-29 09:40:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	314	97¢	$306	0x1e4991…
10-28 10:58:28	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	311	97¢	$302	0xa44aa7…
10-28 07:20:14	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	311	96¢	$299	0x882428…
10-28 04:00:53	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	199	95¢	$190	0xa698d9…
10-28 04:00:46	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0x2c20e9…
10-28 03:37:18	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x19464a…
10-28 03:18:25	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x22806e…
10-28 03:16:34	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x18c7d9…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	289	91¢	$264	0xcffda4…
10-27 18:22:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd0770b…
10-27 14:44:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x7ad3a3…
10-26 00:03:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	303	99¢	$301	0xa91283…
10-24 14:07:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	146	82¢	$120	0x692fad…
10-23 06:43:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	180	22¢	$40	0x4e7f7a…
10-20 21:04:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	180	21¢	$38	0xf61d9c…
10-18 18:48:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	102	92¢	$94	0xe82db7…
10-18 18:48:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x57d32a…
10-18 16:03:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	51	92¢	$47	0x312065…
10-18 08:39:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	24	19¢	$5	0x59e25e…
10-17 19:46:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	172	90¢	$156	0x04b946…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	146	81¢	$119	0x887af5…
10-11 13:44:31	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	91	87¢	$79	0x7fbb98…
10-10 20:48:55	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	91	92¢	$84	0xc342ae…
10-09 11:01:19	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x76ee85…
10-08 21:34:23	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0x0a29de…
10-08 17:50:38	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x08c332…
10-08 16:29:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x1903b1…
10-08 16:00:38	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	91	84¢	$76	0x0f1435…
10-05 05:00:04	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x942cf8…
10-04 23:58:13	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3866b1…
10-03 23:08:46	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	355	95¢	$336	0x8660dd…
10-03 05:01:54	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3e7afc…
10-01 02:54:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	188	100¢	$187	0xc12b97…
10-01 01:34:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0xde1246…
10-01 01:26:35	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x798391…
10-01 01:26:08	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xf4a317…
10-01 01:19:32	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xd4f29c…
09-30 06:52:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0xf6874a…
09-30 04:07:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xeda7ea…
09-30 04:01:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x36636e…
09-29 18:25:09	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xb4ffc0…
09-29 06:08:18	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	SELL	113	100¢	$113	0x2b6814…
09-28 22:42:48	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x2562e8…
09-25 00:23:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	185	91¢	$169	0xe3353d…
09-25 00:22:50	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xd2fe65…
09-22 13:17:06	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa0d4df…
09-22 11:58:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x4a0f14…
09-22 11:45:13	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd8e90f…
09-16 03:53:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	323	100¢	$323	0x24bd46…
09-10 19:39:46	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x105469…
09-10 12:15:30	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	319	99¢	$315	0x38e7d0…
09-05 06:07:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	319	99¢	$317	0x69e0e3…
09-01 03:32:58	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	SELL	310	100¢	$310	0x647a32…
09-01 02:32:28	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	BUY	310	100¢	$309	0xfc23db…
09-01 01:20:42	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x20336e…
09-01 01:19:36	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x8c990e…
08-31 15:36:43	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xde9eee…
08-31 13:47:25	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	164	100¢	$164	0xe47447…
08-31 12:00:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in August?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6778be…
08-31 11:58:22	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe2d747…
08-31 11:57:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb5ddb1…
08-31 11:55:54	Will Ethereum dip to $900 in August?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8e38eb…
08-31 11:54:34	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xd820ae…
08-29 12:08:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2cc902…
08-27 18:44:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	164	97¢	$159	0x7b7b3c…
08-27 12:38:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$105	0x9d7948…
08-25 15:39:34	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0xad36bf…
08-24 03:24:03	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x44808e…
08-21 21:28:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfd2a2a…
08-21 03:48:33	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaf7353…
08-20 16:47:15	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	271	99¢	$269	0xda9184…
08-17 14:31:10	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	271	99¢	$269	0xe984e8…
08-13 13:40:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf95974…
08-13 00:42:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	267	94¢	$251	0x937392…
08-12 23:07:58	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x55ec3c…
08-11 18:20:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xf9adb8…
08-11 03:50:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	260	99¢	$258	0xb284a3…
08-09 20:53:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	258	100¢	$257	0x366a75…
08-09 00:25:16	will ethereum dip to 900 in august 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x973215…
08-08 14:54:31	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x922da4…
08-07 23:29:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x43045c…
08-07 03:21:31	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x24a3d0…
08-06 12:10:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	275	100¢	$274	0x6dde3f…
08-05 21:28:03	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x684422…
08-05 06:09:48	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xa0e555…
08-05 01:33:18	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	282	98¢	$277	0x743e74…
08-05 01:29:23	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xa8b866…
08-04 01:18:20	will ethereum reach 2700 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x78b6d3…
07-31 19:33:42	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x269d61…
07-30 11:19:59	grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$31	0x4e6c44…
07-29 21:09:32	will ethereum dip to 1500 in july 2026 446 668	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x82da21…
07-29 17:12:15	will xauusd dip to 3700 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6ea006…
07-29 16:03:48	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5fa722…
07-28 20:26:47	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xd99805…
07-28 05:51:40	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc6067a…
07-25 12:46:07	grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	186	94¢	$175	0xae4c76…
07-23 12:34:06	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6fa93a…
07-21 03:31:31	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x826026…
07-20 13:28:51	will bitcoin dip to 45k in july 2026 597	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89ff19…