Darling-Tragedy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

110

lifetime

Volume

$1.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 05-30 07:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 100% +$19

Other

39% 100% +$0

Politics

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$208	227	+227	Yes	+$19	05-04 19:25
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	1	$179	179	+179	open	—	04-30 22:19
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$167	170	+170	open	—	05-16 22:17
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$165	166	+166	open	—	05-12 11:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$164	167	+167	open	—	05-15 11:19
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$119	120	+120	open	—	05-30 07:52
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	1	$63	63	+63	open	—	05-28 23:41
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	1	$53	58	+58	open	—	05-03 20:38
gc hit 6000 high jan 2026	1	$35	35	+35	open	—	01-23 17:48
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$32	32	+32	Yes	+$0	04-14 01:54
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?	1	$30	30	+30	open	—	05-28 20:41
will ethereum dip to 1600 in january 2026 383	1	$17	17	+17	open	—	01-07 14:31
tsla above 550 on january 30 2026	1	$17	17	+17	open	—	01-12 00:15
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 115	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	01-17 03:10
will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	01-10 16:10
amzn above 190 on january 30 2026	1	$13	13	+13	open	—	01-21 22:44
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$13	14	+14	open	—	04-27 18:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$13	13	+13	open	—	04-24 09:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$13	15	+15	open	—	04-21 03:25
will ethereum dip to 1800 in january 2026 971	1	$12	12	+12	open	—	01-12 09:38
amzn above 290 on january 30 2026	1	$9	10	+10	open	—	01-15 09:51
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	1	$9	9	+9	open	—	01-13 13:51
tsla above 530 on january 30 2026	1	$9	9	+9	open	—	01-22 11:50
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	2	$7	7	+7	open	—	05-13 00:50
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	2	$6	6	+6	open	—	04-10 15:08
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-11 16:53
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-03 02:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-09 21:25
will xrp reach 2pt8 in february 2026	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	02-20 12:27
will xrp dip to 0pt4 in february 2026	1	$4	5	+5	open	—	02-24 07:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 07:52:11	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x0a8aa8…
05-28 23:41:25	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	BUY	63	99¢	$63	0xdf0384…
05-28 20:41:52	Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x175afb…
05-23 05:32:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0628cd…
05-16 22:17:49	Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	98¢	$167	0xec1a4c…
05-15 11:19:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	167	98¢	$164	0x724e94…
05-13 00:50:08	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xc4eae2…
05-12 18:23:48	Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe8728e…
05-12 11:09:29	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	166	100¢	$165	0xb46697…
05-11 17:57:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbec419…
05-11 16:53:57	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x72a049…
05-11 11:02:57	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9f0df3…
05-11 08:19:34	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x96ad09…
05-10 23:46:40	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x91e38a…
05-10 10:32:38	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xe6e38c…
05-10 07:34:59	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbbfe42…
05-10 05:09:42	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc93955…
05-09 21:25:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3e5f4c…
05-09 00:15:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb26be2…
05-06 09:04:54	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x85f4d0…
05-04 19:25:18	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x9242c1…
05-04 10:22:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x466a60…
05-04 01:58:02	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	144	87¢	$125	0x5bb122…
05-03 20:38:28	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	58	91¢	$53	0xd7521c…
05-03 02:10:34	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x013295…
04-30 22:19:40	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0x67fae6…
04-29 12:20:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7d218b…
04-29 06:13:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x711432…
04-27 18:52:08	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x167bc7…
04-24 09:41:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x0a0307…
04-23 13:28:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x74b57b…
04-21 03:25:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	15	83¢	$13	0xa39d8a…
04-19 18:36:26	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xdaeddf…
04-18 16:19:56	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfe0afc…
04-18 13:13:46	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x930395…
04-18 04:19:42	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xcf1e65…
04-17 15:34:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7a5fee…
04-17 11:00:42	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x209a5d…
04-17 03:20:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1b4fa8…
04-16 09:50:44	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x77ce73…
04-14 01:54:07	Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x9065c8…
04-10 15:50:27	Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x73fbbb…
04-10 15:08:51	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x4e6ad5…
04-10 12:12:01	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf9d7d6…
04-10 08:31:41	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbaf854…
04-07 07:49:51	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3325ae…
04-06 15:10:55	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfe1072…
04-05 08:21:57	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0e6682…
03-30 11:46:34	will xrp dip to 0pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5c94fa…
03-30 10:10:08	meta above 720 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x965b70…
03-29 09:18:14	nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xbdb935…
03-29 07:13:22	will ethereum reach 3000 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x80c383…
03-28 06:57:05	nflx above 120 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x902e90…
03-27 02:36:49	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x80ea4b…
03-26 14:44:41	msft above 405 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xad70c9…
03-25 08:49:53	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x29aff1…
03-25 05:54:53	will xrp reach 2pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0e71cc…
03-24 19:57:01	nvda above 120 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbbcc34…
03-24 18:50:57	will chainlink reach 18 in march	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7525c0…
03-24 18:12:25	tsla above 430 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x162c3b…
03-23 14:34:11	msft above 435 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xecd0fc…
03-23 09:48:21	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5deb42…
03-12 18:32:31	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2a3a5c…
03-12 05:58:41	will zai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0b2cca…
03-10 20:18:03	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x54a804…
03-10 13:16:53	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x88ea05…
03-10 08:18:19	amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x96453c…
03-10 07:53:37	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xab3918…
03-09 22:28:21	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xba5e5c…
03-08 00:53:37	will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x4b87ea…
03-07 22:57:05	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xeb7249…
03-07 19:22:37	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3c08a4…
03-06 20:41:07	will saudi aramco be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x342d52…
03-06 17:15:37	will bnb dip to 200 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x540cae…
03-06 09:13:49	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf326f8…
03-06 07:59:13	will bnb dip to 200 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8e2b51…
03-05 18:31:59	will tesla be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x36855f…
03-05 14:34:19	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf77b66…
03-05 07:49:17	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb401dc…
03-05 03:07:45	amzn above 270 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb1abbf…
03-04 10:47:23	aapl above 330 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9525b5…
03-04 09:32:53	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9a6b34…
03-04 06:56:23	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x16f8fe…
03-04 06:38:27	amzn above 270 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d6629…
03-04 04:27:01	nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x33779d…
03-04 00:47:25	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x857c88…
03-04 00:02:51	bank of england decreases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting 876	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d21e8…
03-02 21:18:37	nflx above 60 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3cd6ca…
02-25 14:20:56	aapl above 230 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4d60cb…
02-24 23:46:48	meta above 720 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x709905…
02-24 14:56:56	msft above 495 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc30c5a…
02-24 10:35:16	tsla above 480 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xba744f…
02-24 07:08:38	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in february 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0xff6e66…
02-23 12:52:34	will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xad9417…
02-21 08:35:00	msft above 345 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x840c2f…
02-20 22:32:14	will xrp reach 3pt4 in february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9c16c2…
02-20 14:29:22	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xfb9f67…
02-20 13:17:32	googl above 390 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xfdcc5b…
02-20 12:27:28	will xrp reach 2pt8 in february 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbceca9…
02-10 03:25:31	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0a0421…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	65	$860	1,005	05-29 16:23
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	62	$150.7K	2,369	06-01 01:15
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	57	$3.48K	1,022	05-30 20:34
Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44	55	$1.50K	1,230	05-15 13:23
Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f	54	$1.64K	1,136	05-16 10:19
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	53	$80.3K	398	05-27 18:21
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	53	$11.1K	6,565	04-24 06:55
Secondary-Lobotomy 0x250c…2774	49	$1.48K	2,794	05-27 17:32