Harmless-Collection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$43

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

450

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$46

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 21:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

54% 100% +$43

Other

38% — —

Sports

7% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No		+49	$25	55¢	$27	+$2	06-08 21:19
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No		+25	$20	78¢	$20	$-0	06-08 21:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	12	$826	507	507	+0	open	—	03-27 20:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	7	$417	572	0	+572	open	—	03-27 20:41
will john cornyn win the first round of the republican senate primary election in texas	7	$344	196	196	+0	open	—	03-05 16:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	11	$310	522	0	+522	open	—	03-27 20:42
greg bovino firedresigns by march 31	4	$293	179	179	+0	open	—	03-04 05:12
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	8	$245	163	129	+35	open	—	01-31 16:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$238	175	195	-19	Yes	+$38	04-28 04:48
Nothing Ever Happens: April	4	$232	180	180	+0	open	—	04-13 06:39
us forces enter iran by march 7	3	$220	117	117	+0	open	—	03-06 19:12
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$202	108	108	+0	open	—	02-28 07:04
minneapolis border patrol shooter firedresigns by march 31	5	$199	116	116	+0	open	—	03-03 16:49
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	5	$198	112	112	+0	open	—	03-13 14:50
barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	10	$195	413	403	+10	open	—	04-15 07:17
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	1	$193	0	510	-510	open	—	01-25 09:55
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	3	$170	132	131	+1	open	—	01-08 13:42
will ken paxton win the first round of the republican senate primary election in texas	3	$167	151	151	+0	open	—	03-04 05:09
nancy guthrie kidnapper arrested by february 28	6	$167	101	101	+0	open	—	02-27 14:44
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$149	99	99	+0	open	—	04-08 03:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$138	78	78	+0	open	—	03-12 04:31
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 26 february 1 be less than 14250000	5	$132	108	100	+8	open	—	01-30 19:52
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	1	$128	206	0	+206	open	—	01-02 21:27
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	3	$115	70	70	+0	open	—	02-23 22:37
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 26 be less than 2200000	8	$115	134	0	+134	open	—	01-27 06:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$113	68	68	+0	open	—	05-28 04:45
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$106	361	361	+0	open	—	02-28 07:06
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	3	$102	66	44	+22	open	—	01-30 16:05
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$100	58	58	+0	open	—	01-23 20:10
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	2	$98	56	56	+0	open	—	03-04 05:06
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	1	$98	0	486	-486	open	—	01-17 15:41
iran strike on us military by february 28	9	$96	135	135	+0	open	—	02-28 20:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 21:38:43	Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x23107e…
06-08 21:19:57	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x4190ff…
05-28 06:35:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xfd818f…
05-28 04:45:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	68	92¢	$63	0x3e47fb…
05-26 07:25:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x15fae8…
05-20 01:12:04	Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	No	SELL	16	92¢	$14	0xbc57e6…
05-04 06:49:00	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Knights	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xac4339…
04-30 21:40:16	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xe519a4…
04-28 06:38:20	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	29¢	$3	0x00aed3…
04-28 06:38:02	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0x884efa…
04-28 06:31:50	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$17	0xf54160…
04-28 04:49:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x660c80…
04-28 04:48:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	195	71¢	$138	0x63bb30…
04-25 17:56:12	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x589004…
04-25 17:56:02	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xa2cffb…
04-25 17:54:34	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	39	26¢	$10	0xc8bba7…
04-25 17:54:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x2dc550…
04-25 04:41:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x3ec934…
04-25 04:24:24	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x63eff7…
04-22 02:39:42	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd8a987…
04-22 02:11:34	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0x551210…
04-22 02:11:10	Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x0f33ba…
04-20 04:59:20	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x526de5…
04-20 04:57:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x7daf70…
04-20 04:34:50	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	44	13¢	$6	0x77dcf8…
04-20 04:33:36	Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x560931…
04-20 04:32:36	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavs	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xd2b4a7…
04-20 04:32:14	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb9383e…
04-19 13:38:00	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xd1fc1a…
04-19 13:37:24	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	78	26¢	$20	0x9458d2…
04-16 06:40:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x8c881e…
04-15 07:17:38	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	Yes	SELL	312	10¢	$31	0x973139…
04-15 06:12:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x7d9770…
04-15 06:11:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	BUY	55	72¢	$40	0x6fd569…
04-15 06:04:26	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	Yes	BUY	322	2¢	$6	0x5f26ae…
04-15 06:00:24	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x4030e0…
04-15 02:53:20	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x4334d5…
04-15 01:42:38	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3158ca…
04-15 01:36:34	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x8fc04e…
04-15 01:33:26	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x372b53…
04-15 01:24:52	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x3b3868…
04-15 01:12:40	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x212019…
04-15 00:42:52	Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	No	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0xdd9778…
04-15 00:33:12	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$7	0xd8a8fa…
04-15 00:32:58	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0xd229e8…
04-15 00:31:34	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x6941b5…
04-15 00:18:54	barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x93dbf4…
04-13 06:41:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0x204edd…
04-13 06:40:15	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x0958fa…
04-13 06:39:49	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	SELL	180	80¢	$143	0xe19f17…
04-13 06:35:33	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x92c810…
04-12 15:07:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xf524bc…
04-08 03:37:09	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x2b6d36…
04-08 03:23:45	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	BUY	114	49¢	$56	0x55aceb…
04-08 03:20:35	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	99	89¢	$88	0x3bd704…
04-08 02:52:15	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x905c8e…
04-08 02:50:23	will trump praise allah again by april 15	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x33f55b…
03-27 20:42:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xc52ac5…
03-27 20:41:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x9855fb…
03-27 20:37:11	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	55	97¢	$54	0xee8a72…
03-27 20:36:41	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x17cb87…
03-26 14:34:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x94c21e…
03-26 14:33:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	39	79¢	$31	0xc218c9…
03-25 16:24:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xcba202…
03-25 16:23:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x204dbb…
03-25 16:23:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x958ad9…
03-25 16:22:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	45	91¢	$41	0x622925…
03-25 04:55:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x9e51be…
03-24 21:56:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x695d68…
03-24 19:05:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	85¢	$35	0x911f7f…
03-23 21:19:53	foreign intervention in gaza by march 31	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x9b6af3…
03-23 03:29:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x8198c9…
03-22 13:20:27	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xbfb860…
03-22 13:19:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	234	64¢	$150	0x4d35d0…
03-22 13:18:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	275	73¢	$201	0xfdbf16…
03-22 13:18:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	451	89¢	$402	0xa49014…
03-21 19:22:15	ncaa tournament double digit seed to make quarterfinals	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x460ce3…
03-21 19:17:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xeac479…
03-19 18:36:03	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	No	BUY	23	89¢	$20	0x25e48e…
03-19 18:35:19	ncaa tournament double digit seed to make quarterfinals	No	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0x406ded…
03-19 07:57:51	nothing ever happens elon edition	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x9b5b17…
03-19 07:56:07	congress passes iran war powers resolution by march 31	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x4b5b19…
03-19 07:54:27	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by march 31	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x889f72…
03-16 23:25:23	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xc8471f…
03-16 23:24:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x1d1c18…
03-16 23:20:25	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	No	SELL	44	92¢	$41	0x1eb9c3…
03-15 21:42:47	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xf776c7…
03-15 21:38:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x7683ad…
03-15 21:36:43	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xd92a3a…
03-14 14:15:21	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	No	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x56c8e4…
03-13 14:52:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x63b560…
03-13 14:51:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x1a23cf…
03-13 14:51:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x617c81…
03-13 14:50:33	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	No	SELL	112	98¢	$110	0x8d33dc…
03-12 04:32:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x2c9aae…
03-12 04:32:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x7402f4…
03-12 04:31:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	78	97¢	$76	0xd04af2…
03-12 04:22:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xa88753…
03-12 04:22:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x46cf9a…
03-10 17:04:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xac9a83…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	144	$17.1K	4,100	06-04 12:04
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	133	$1.07M	17,211	06-07 19:09
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	130	$43.1K	4,285	05-30 02:28
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	127	$212.1K	1,453	06-09 01:02
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	124	$427.1K	37,319	05-31 18:27
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	123	$153.2K	12,514	03-28 16:56
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	122	$24.1M	40,240	06-07 19:02
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	115	$50.4K	17,382	04-16 23:32