Shocked-Tail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.17K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.2%

Resolved

165

Trades

362

lifetime

Volume

$21.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-22 05:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

64% 41% -$611

Politics

31% 27% -$595

Crypto

2% 29% -$10

Sports

2% 64% +$48

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will no government funding bill be passed by january 31 2026 823	5	$3.2K	2,444	2,444	+0	Yes	+$313	01-30 06:50
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	9	$2.6K	5,322	5,322	-0	Yes	+$96	02-01 15:55
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.5K	2,953	4,203	-1,250	No	+$78	05-13 06:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	8	$1.5K	4,313	4,313	+0	No	-$108	04-28 14:51
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$1.0K	1,110	1,110	+0	Yes	-$178	02-01 15:55
will powell say inflation 60 times during january press conference	2	$867	513	513	+0	No	+$67	01-28 19:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	10	$831	913	913	+0	open	—	05-28 19:11
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	10	$815	1,994	1,406	+588	No	-$25	04-22 04:55
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	3	$609	617	617	+0	Yes	+$9	01-25 10:43
cbb flatl templ 2026 01 18	4	$536	593	261	+332	Florida Atlantic Owls	-$14	01-18 19:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$479	3,409	0	+3,409	No	-$479	09-14 18:42
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$451	36,217	25,106	+11,111	No	+$0	06-02 20:32
will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	7	$421	287	287	+0	Yes	+$21	04-18 14:51
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	4	$388	2,792	2,792	+0	No	-$34	01-10 19:08
Pump.fun revenue above $25M in April?	8	$382	857	812	+44	Yes	-$54	05-01 12:06
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	2	$298	192	192	+0	Yes	-$2	06-28 19:53
epl eve wol 2026 01 07 eve	2	$235	182	182	+0	No	+$35	01-07 19:54
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$208	125	125	+0	Yes	+$8	01-18 11:23
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$199	500	500	+0	No	-$1	01-23 18:59
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$185	991	991	+0	No	-$15	04-17 12:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$172	612	612	+0	No	-$24	05-08 19:44
will powell say inflation 40 times during january press conference	4	$167	278	278	+0	No	+$67	01-28 20:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	2	$161	131	131	+0	Yes	-$33	05-31 01:00
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	1	$128	151	0	+151	Yes	+$23	06-27 05:36
epl bou ars 2026 01 03 ars	4	$124	93	93	+0	Yes	+$24	01-03 18:42
epl tot bri 2026 04 18 draw	2	$123	100	98	+2	Yes	+$75	04-18 19:45
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$113	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$1	06-17 19:26
epl bre ful 2026 04 18 draw	2	$112	89	87	+2	Yes	+$64	04-18 14:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$110	114	114	+0	No	+$10	04-15 05:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$109	438	438	+0	No	-$31	05-09 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 05:20:37	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x1ed5af…
09-14 19:10:28	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x882bca…
09-14 18:42:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,692	14¢	$377	0x6fc7a9…
09-14 18:41:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x2e0b9f…
08-10 11:56:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xbb4e2f…
08-10 11:54:19	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x19d002…
07-12 19:44:16	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	41	36¢	$15	0x003f8c…
07-08 21:12:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	41	24¢	$10	0xc5a5c5…
07-08 21:11:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x651ee1…
07-08 21:11:37	will ansem flip pump by december 31 2026 20260702152126830	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x0df341…
07-07 19:17:28	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	13¢	$9	0xde6f2c…
07-07 18:14:10	will ansem flip pump by december 31 2026 20260702152126830	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x74c007…
07-07 07:08:47	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x80220e…
07-07 07:05:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x0ae868…
06-28 19:53:43	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	192	77¢	$148	0x999a26…
06-28 19:44:40	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	192	78¢	$150	0x03217e…
06-27 05:36:32	Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	151	85¢	$128	0xc6de5b…
06-25 10:09:59	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x73b68a…
06-24 05:16:04	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x25674f…
06-22 07:06:55	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	29	91¢	$26	0x24f81c…
06-21 08:05:49	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd0a3b4…
06-21 08:05:34	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xdc0e3f…
06-21 08:05:14	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x183c7c…
06-21 08:04:56	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x0bc061…
06-21 08:04:49	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x19200f…
06-21 08:04:37	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xd8e9cb…
06-21 08:04:19	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xfdef4b…
06-21 08:04:13	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xd4dd2f…
06-21 07:57:34	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xc177a3…
06-18 09:24:17	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0xfd02f1…
06-17 19:26:46	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x52a7dc…
06-17 19:26:25	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$56	0xc7c0ed…
06-15 19:35:45	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,778	1¢	$22	0x180a56…
06-15 18:58:01	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,250	6¢	$75	0x0d61c1…
06-03 05:12:16	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0x7c4a30…
06-03 05:11:36	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,778	1¢	$25	0x9df0d5…
06-03 05:11:08	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	329	16¢	$54	0x1e094c…
06-03 05:08:03	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	239	16¢	$39	0xd3d098…
06-03 05:07:49	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$7	0x52c6b1…
06-03 05:07:21	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$57	0x9eb760…
06-03 05:06:42	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0xb52b77…
06-02 20:32:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,111	1¢	$100	0xd08b32…
06-02 20:15:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25,106	1¢	$226	0x961565…
06-02 05:46:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x9b30bf…
06-02 05:46:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$50	0x3a429e…
06-02 05:46:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$20	0xfbaf6a…
06-02 05:46:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0xb57de4…
06-02 05:46:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x9ac67c…
06-02 05:46:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x1c0d4a…
06-02 05:37:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,106	0¢	$16	0x800572…
06-02 05:36:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	SELL	457	4¢	$16	0x7f894f…
05-31 13:46:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x97e29e…
05-31 13:45:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x1c8471…
05-31 13:45:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x1a63a7…
05-31 13:45:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x447288…
05-31 13:45:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x6139ac…
05-31 13:45:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x794058…
05-31 13:45:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xb34ea0…
05-31 01:00:59	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	SELL	131	49¢	$64	0xb8716b…
05-28 19:14:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	BUY	131	74¢	$97	0x0411bd…
05-28 19:11:53	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0x3fe4a7…
05-28 19:11:49	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	SELL	302	12¢	$36	0xb3b317…
05-28 19:11:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	47¢	$55	0x514c7b…
05-25 21:26:13	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x48787d…
05-25 20:31:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x1662a3…
05-25 20:20:36	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	BUY	225	13¢	$29	0xf44da4…
05-25 20:19:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	64¢	$30	0xe622e7…
05-25 19:37:01	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xcc0745…
05-25 17:00:53	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0x07c872…
05-13 06:20:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	112	23¢	$26	0xea8af3…
05-13 06:20:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,083	17¢	$354	0x6ae055…
05-13 06:16:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	743	44¢	$327	0x30e086…
05-12 19:19:46	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	516	2¢	$10	0x2a57a4…
05-12 19:08:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?	Yes	SELL	90	41¢	$37	0x1df156…
05-11 17:39:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	170	4¢	$7	0x4a6dee…
05-11 17:39:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x9ab915…
05-11 17:38:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf1b080…
05-11 15:46:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?	Yes	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0xe8eedc…
05-11 15:44:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x3a0678…
05-11 13:55:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	112	27¢	$30	0xd7d1f8…
05-11 06:23:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xeb936c…
05-10 23:44:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	4	37¢	$1	0x8dee47…
05-10 23:44:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0x45a7d2…
05-10 23:41:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	24	37¢	$9	0x1fbab6…
05-10 23:34:11	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0x5bc939…
05-10 23:03:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0xcddd0d…
05-10 19:15:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,083	24¢	$500	0x2caba6…
05-10 17:44:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x7584e4…
05-10 13:31:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x852f62…
05-10 11:54:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x386951…
05-10 07:13:33	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x439fad…
05-10 07:08:11	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x883dbc…
05-10 07:01:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x6d60f0…
05-10 06:58:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	133	1¢	$1	0x34f5b8…
05-10 06:57:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 10?	Yes	BUY	249	0¢	$1	0x3f9ba2…
05-10 06:56:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x6d357d…
05-09 19:39:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?	No	BUY	45	91¢	$41	0x772ec9…
05-09 19:39:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	No	SELL	58	73¢	$42	0x948bb3…
05-09 16:25:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?	No	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0xdd390e…
05-09 16:24:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	438	9¢	$39	0x08235e…