Trivial-Identification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.33K

Unrealized P&L

+$307

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

236

Trades

491

lifetime

Volume

$62.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$127

Open exposure

$2.89K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-07 18:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Other

45% 79% +$947

Politics

25% 65% -$1,263

Sports

16% 56% -$64

Crypto

14% 43% -$954

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+1,590	$1,313	96¢	$1.5K	+$212	10-03 19:44
putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	+581	$500	90¢	$526	+$26	08-05 17:50
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+255	$240	95¢	$243	+$3	07-12 19:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+244	$200	94¢	$228	+$28	08-21 23:18
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+247	$200	92¢	$226	+$26	09-23 18:39
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+147	$131	96¢	$141	+$11	09-27 03:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$4.3K	2,183	2,183	+0	No	+$2	01-27 02:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$2.9K	2,717	679	+2,037	No	+$508	04-19 17:21
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5	$2.5K	2,313	724	+1,590	open	—	10-03 19:44
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	20	$2.0K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	-$424	03-22 04:14
Trump out as President by June 30?	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$8	05-14 18:31
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	2	$1.8K	947	947	+0	No	+$29	01-24 21:45
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	3	$1.7K	1,145	1,145	+0	Yes	+$58	02-14 01:39
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.6K	812	812	+0	No	+$7	06-09 20:17
nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026	1	$1.4K	1,403	0	+1,403	No	+$3	01-06 21:56
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	2	$1.4K	703	703	+0	No	+$0	01-27 02:25
will alex honnold not complete a free solo of taipei 101 by january 31	1	$1.2K	1,298	0	+1,298	No	+$98	01-24 21:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$4	06-09 20:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	5	$1.1K	4,817	4,817	+0	No	-$47	02-04 17:07
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	08-19 03:37
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$1.1K	1,309	1,309	+0	Yes	+$40	01-28 21:32
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	2	$1.1K	617	463	+154	No	+$9	07-22 14:52
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	09-16 20:21
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	2	$1.0K	528	528	+0	No	+$8	01-24 21:46
will bitcoin dip to 70k in january 2026	2	$1.0K	509	509	+0	No	+$4	01-24 21:46
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$1.0K	503	503	+0	No	+$3	05-01 04:31
will bitcoin reach 120k in january 2026	2	$1.0K	503	503	+0	No	+$1	01-24 21:45
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$1000	581	581	+0	open	—	08-04 15:48
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	2	$999	514	514	+0	No	-$1	01-16 14:41
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	2	$938	500	500	+0	open	—	06-26 05:06
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	3	$914	469	469	+0	No	+$6	01-31 19:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$853	432	432	+0	No	+$0	03-23 13:39
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	24	$829	4,455	2,149	+2,306	open	—	08-14 04:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$804	440	440	+0	open	—	07-28 18:14
Will Sidney Crosby win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	6	$801	401	401	+0	No	+$1	06-03 10:58
will elton hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 nhl draft 20260624213347249	1	$772	822	0	+822	No	+$51	06-26 05:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 18:34:21	Penguins vs. Capitals	Penguins	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x4aa5bf…
10-07 18:33:57	Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights	Maple Leafs	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0xf27234…
10-07 18:33:07	Canucks vs. Hurricanes	Canucks	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x82dc51…
10-04 00:10:35	Senators vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	SELL	140	51¢	$72	0xdc3209…
10-03 19:44:45	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	417	96¢	$400	0xc8bba7…
10-02 23:40:57	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x6f289c…
10-02 23:40:56	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xec4139…
10-02 23:40:56	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0xd68fda…
10-02 23:40:56	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	616	1¢	$6	0xa11a55…
10-02 23:40:56	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x81ee3f…
10-02 23:40:54	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xeb8d0e…
10-02 23:40:54	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	213	1¢	$2	0xa40c5d…
10-02 20:35:08	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x62a7b0…
10-02 18:46:42	Golden Knights vs. Canucks	Golden Knights	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xda770c…
10-02 18:46:32	Panthers vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x31a9f8…
10-02 18:46:11	Bruins vs. Wild	Bruins	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0x0e0925…
10-02 18:46:00	Bruins vs. Wild	Bruins	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0x78202f…
10-02 18:45:32	Islanders vs. Rangers	Islanders	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xedc328…
10-02 18:44:57	Senators vs. Bruins	Senators	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xb118f4…
10-02 12:58:15	Senators vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	BUY	140	53¢	$74	0x0f2664…
10-02 10:29:26	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x45a03e…
10-02 08:23:57	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0xf78b69…
10-02 08:23:57	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x2d7569…
10-02 06:04:06	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xa2e022…
10-02 04:18:35	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xfc44a5…
10-01 15:01:00	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	454	1¢	$5	0x6c4085…
10-01 03:36:56	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xecab51…
09-30 19:53:50	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	1,027	1¢	$10	0xb69b76…
09-30 15:43:30	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	149	1¢	$1	0xaa0fc3…
09-30 15:40:29	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xd2c81b…
09-30 14:56:20	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xde43bc…
09-30 13:25:15	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x14850c…
09-30 09:43:21	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2cc62c…
09-30 00:55:48	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x53aa49…
09-30 00:55:48	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2088b7…
09-30 00:55:48	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x06a37d…
09-30 00:55:45	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0xd0d5eb…
09-30 00:55:45	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x05ea40…
09-29 23:08:39	Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	2,208	1¢	$19	0xedfc16…
09-27 04:56:39	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x5ba66a…
09-27 03:54:30	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	147	89¢	$131	0xe3f26c…
09-26 19:11:42	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x5cda73…
09-26 17:15:32	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x977ae2…
09-23 18:46:32	Senators vs. Maple Leafs	Senators	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x4121d1…
09-23 18:39:08	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0x43e543…
09-23 18:36:08	Maple Leafs vs. Senators	Senators	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x3133d1…
09-22 05:47:54	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6b692a…
09-22 05:28:24	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x54cef7…
09-21 20:54:27	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa7adf8…
09-20 15:51:57	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xc5f8a6…
09-20 14:13:01	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x364c91…
09-20 01:35:58	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x45605d…
09-19 02:57:54	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x7840f3…
09-19 02:52:54	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x4228a2…
09-19 02:52:07	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x5df82b…
09-19 02:51:43	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x92b569…
09-16 20:21:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	600	88¢	$528	0xad8e40…
08-21 23:18:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0xe6478b…
08-19 03:38:12	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,172	85¢	$1,000	0x6de561…
08-19 03:37:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	600	92¢	$549	0x04a367…
08-15 23:31:33	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	800	2¢	$15	0x37bbb1…
08-15 17:16:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$0	0xf922f5…
08-15 17:14:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	190	74¢	$141	0x49b21c…
08-15 17:14:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x7fe06f…
08-15 17:14:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	99	74¢	$73	0x663138…
08-15 04:22:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x8bc479…
08-15 00:34:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	185	74¢	$137	0xe3d170…
08-15 00:34:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x818eb5…
08-14 04:38:36	Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	SELL	769	11¢	$85	0xa542bd…
08-14 00:43:31	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	315	3¢	$10	0x677861…
08-14 00:33:52	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0x739417…
08-12 12:13:48	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x30dd47…
08-12 11:21:10	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x978500…
08-11 13:46:06	wnba nyl ind 2026 08 11 points kelsey mitchell 24pt5	Yes	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0xd84327…
08-11 13:45:34	wnba nyl ind 2026 08 11 points caitlin clark 21pt5	Yes	BUY	99	54¢	$53	0x742e5c…
08-11 13:44:55	wnba nyl ind 2026 08 11	Indiana Fever	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x1b5b6c…
08-10 21:06:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0xad6f74…
08-10 20:55:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	67¢	$268	0x6b7d7f…
08-10 17:53:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	67	67¢	$45	0x6d86e4…
08-10 13:34:27	Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	SELL	236	35¢	$82	0x04665b…
08-09 04:32:55	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xfdfb21…
08-07 14:58:04	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xc306fc…
08-07 12:40:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	596	90¢	$536	0x72da0a…
08-07 12:31:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x2e9b60…
08-06 16:20:30	Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	SELL	1,381	12¢	$166	0x64d89f…
08-06 16:19:57	Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	1,026	2¢	$22	0x1e918f…
08-05 22:42:38	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x7c3e6e…
08-05 17:50:38	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	581	86¢	$500	0x3cd7b4…
08-05 09:32:20	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0x5d9292…
08-05 04:00:51	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x488f89…
08-05 00:12:44	Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x050748…
08-04 21:00:53	will dana white attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630258	No	SELL	60	92¢	$55	0x2e8eef…
08-04 20:51:15	will piers morgan attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630255	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xa8351b…
08-04 20:42:18	will donald trump publicly insult jerome powell by august 31 2026 20260730161742260	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3639ee…
08-04 19:43:24	will piers morgan attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630255	No	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0xf17587…
08-04 19:01:11	will dana white attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630258	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x2f330b…
08-04 18:38:23	will dana white attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630258	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xdab005…
08-04 18:12:12	will piers morgan attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630255	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x779a77…
08-04 17:47:26	will dana white attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630258	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x36fadc…
08-04 17:40:06	Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	827	2¢	$17	0x1d3f85…