Extra-Large-Gale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$82

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.7%

Resolved

Trades

237

lifetime

Volume

$7.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 08-21 07:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

58% 42% +$84

Politics

40% 46% -$1

Crypto

3% 0% $0

Sports

0% 0% —

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	21	$690	430	430	+0	No	+$0	05-04 09:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	9	$275	210	210	+0	No	+$0	05-08 17:45
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	4	$263	137	137	+0	No	+$6	08-21 07:54
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	7	$259	246	246	+0	Yes	-$19	03-20 09:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	6	$238	124	124	+0	No	$0	05-10 16:35
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	4	$177	90	90	+0	No	+$0	05-07 18:56
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	6	$176	90	90	+0	No	+$0	04-26 02:47
will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$173	88	88	+0	No	+$0	04-10 09:14
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	6	$169	87	87	+0	No	+$0	05-05 08:08
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	2	$124	63	63	+0	No	$0	03-19 01:49
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 240 259	2	$121	80	80	+0	No	+$4	03-18 15:07
military action against iran ends on march 31 2026	5	$118	60	60	+0	No	$0	03-29 05:14
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 200 219	3	$117	61	61	+0	No	-$1	03-18 06:08
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$106	56	56	+0	No	+$0	04-07 03:13
will ethereum dip to 1400 in march 2026	2	$100	51	51	+0	No	$0	03-23 09:26
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	4	$99	180	180	+0	No	$0	03-30 19:20
iran leadership change by march 31	2	$98	50	50	+0	No	+$0	03-30 07:49
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?	2	$97	49	49	+0	No	+$0	04-20 16:26
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	$0	03-27 23:16
will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$96	50	50	+0	No	+$0	04-11 17:50
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$95	50	50	+0	No	+$0	04-20 06:44
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$93	47	47	+0	No	$0	04-27 01:12
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$93	47	47	+0	No	+$0	04-27 08:36
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	3	$93	50	50	+0	No	+$0	04-26 08:27
will polymarket mindshare hit 85 278	2	$90	48	48	+0	No	$0	03-24 13:08
will solana reach 120 in march 2026	4	$90	46	46	+0	No	$0	03-25 03:39
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 400 419	2	$90	46	46	+0	No	+$1	03-24 08:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$89	47	47	+0	Yes	-$1	03-31 07:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$89	45	45	+0	Yes	+$0	04-15 07:19
will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	3	$89	45	45	+0	No	$0	03-25 15:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-21 07:54:03	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	137	98¢	$135	0x0170c5…
06-22 19:27:43	will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x9964ca…
06-22 11:34:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0xb9a06d…
06-22 11:34:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x786317…
06-22 11:34:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	62	94¢	$58	0x42e006…
06-02 04:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x402e3a…
06-02 04:07:30	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9d8795…
06-02 01:34:54	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0xae6b91…
05-25 16:02:28	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	6¢	$4	0xc783b5…
05-25 12:33:07	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	No	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x6a59a1…
05-25 07:52:23	Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	Yes	BUY	52	8¢	$4	0xc6b6b6…
05-21 03:03:06	Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xf14ade…
05-21 03:03:06	Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0xc2b9c7…
05-21 03:03:06	Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x945f27…
05-21 03:03:06	Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x88cdaf…
05-19 12:17:33	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x1d43b0…
05-18 22:25:19	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbe0d19…
05-18 22:25:19	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0xaacc29…
05-18 08:18:59	Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x776b39…
05-13 14:47:57	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xebc0c9…
05-13 10:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0xb28c47…
05-13 06:37:55	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	9¢	$6	0xd3bc07…
05-13 02:20:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	168	2¢	$4	0x634b5b…
05-13 00:39:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	168	3¢	$5	0x208184…
05-12 22:09:15	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x419bb4…
05-12 17:40:43	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x713904…
05-12 04:21:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	3¢	$3	0xc2fda5…
05-12 01:32:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	3¢	$3	0x5a6537…
05-11 21:30:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0x0d858c…
05-11 17:57:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x29c455…
05-11 12:33:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	45	94¢	$42	0xd334b0…
05-11 10:05:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xd39767…
05-10 22:25:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0xd9706b…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x1141ca…
05-10 16:35:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xf99701…
05-10 12:32:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x9b7063…
05-10 07:04:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x8f4102…
05-10 05:18:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x707b3c…
05-09 18:06:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0xdb59b2…
05-09 18:05:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x945b9e…
05-08 21:43:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x0c73a2…
05-08 17:45:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x87a5df…
05-08 15:04:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x9417a4…
05-08 07:01:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x0f53e5…
05-08 07:01:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0x160cda…
05-08 02:53:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x7c85af…
05-07 18:56:20	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x0cc109…
05-07 12:00:06	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x0b3fb8…
05-06 23:44:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	5¢	$4	0x14400b…
05-06 21:09:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	5¢	$4	0xff42f8…
05-06 18:01:13	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x49c432…
05-06 16:42:25	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x944925…
05-06 12:46:58	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0xdf0c78…
05-06 08:00:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x21887c…
05-06 05:03:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xaacbfc…
05-06 00:16:06	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x80e860…
05-05 22:25:18	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x2606d0…
05-05 08:08:24	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0xf6fa86…
05-05 08:08:24	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x8abbf9…
05-05 04:24:56	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x54344e…
05-04 09:45:46	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x853884…
05-04 06:55:34	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x07c807…
05-04 04:31:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x779825…
05-04 04:31:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x375f8e…
05-04 04:31:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	49	94¢	$46	0x44d46e…
05-04 00:01:18	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x31d1fa…
05-03 16:45:02	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x3532ed…
05-03 15:23:12	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0xe5c93a…
05-03 15:23:12	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x9f7c02…
05-03 15:22:26	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x9ba530…
05-03 08:01:08	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	97¢	$46	0x99db7d…
05-03 06:00:22	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x2df76a…
05-02 20:50:22	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x679f5f…
05-02 17:46:42	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x71c5db…
05-02 05:09:12	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0xa3466f…
05-02 03:58:26	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x7d91d9…
05-02 02:06:56	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xd72e93…
05-01 18:37:54	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0xc708bd…
05-01 16:31:06	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xaa35b8…
05-01 11:25:38	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xf5f628…
05-01 07:53:44	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	3¢	$2	0xd669be…
05-01 05:36:34	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	3¢	$2	0x06ac01…
05-01 03:57:22	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0x47cad5…
05-01 01:38:32	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x49a490…
04-30 22:09:02	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x059862…
04-30 19:11:22	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xead78e…
04-30 19:11:20	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x9ab940…
04-30 15:13:54	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x44f254…
04-30 15:13:52	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x2383f3…
04-30 13:57:50	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x956e17…
04-30 12:27:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x11a945…
04-30 02:26:28	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x2cce8a…
04-29 23:25:00	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x8caa9e…
04-29 19:12:36	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0x4457d6…
04-29 15:54:20	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x501f36…
04-27 08:36:54	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0x2aa5de…
04-27 06:28:02	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0xcbbfc4…
04-27 01:12:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x0e078a…
04-26 22:57:40	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x055522…
04-26 08:27:58	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0xb7a816…