Scented-Eyelids — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.08K

Unrealized P&L

+$6.42K

Hit rate

75.6%

Resolved

6,178

Trades

10,849

lifetime

Volume

$566.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

$56.1K

15 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-27 20:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

60% 81% -$7,519

Other

28% 45% +$5,202

Crypto

12% 53% -$747

Tech

0% 0% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+24,487	$18,153	96¢	$23.5K	+$5,354	10-26 18:04
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+10,479	$9,519	97¢	$10.2K	+$646	10-25 21:16
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	+5,806	$5,184	95¢	$5.5K	+$323	10-21 16:35
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+3,160	$2,907	92¢	$2.9K	-$16	10-25 16:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	+2,971	$2,724	92¢	$2.7K	-$5	10-25 16:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,653	$2,228	84¢	$2.2K	$0	10-16 04:19
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+1,712	$1,326	97¢	$1.7K	+$327	10-08 10:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+3,000	$1,170	52¢	$1.5K	+$375	10-13 13:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	+2,000	$1,560	76¢	$1.5K	-$30	10-11 14:17
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	+1,600	$1,376	90¢	$1.4K	+$64	09-24 21:29
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	+1,416	$1,132	96¢	$1.4K	+$228	10-24 09:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+2,550	$816	38¢	$956	+$140	10-21 18:33
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,757	$1,136	15¢	$414	-$722	10-22 03:37
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	+1,069	$481	20¢	$219	-$262	10-23 17:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1	$1	82¢	$1	$0	10-11 19:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	25	$34.5K	34,171	9,684	+24,487	open	—	10-26 18:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	17	$28.1K	18,583	14,195	+4,388	Yes	-$342	09-28 08:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	19	$26.4K	16,490	16,490	+0	open	—	10-22 12:36
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	15	$20.6K	10,702	10,702	+0	No	+$651	10-01 06:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	16	$18.5K	9,711	9,711	+0	open	—	10-21 16:26
russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	28	$15.2K	13,528	3,048	+10,479	open	—	10-25 21:16
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	13	$14.7K	10,211	10,211	+0	No	-$3,824	08-30 19:40
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	16	$12.2K	8,538	4,630	+3,909	No	+$831	09-30 20:29
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	15	$11.5K	6,230	6,222	+7	Yes	+$337	09-03 21:42
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	12	$11.2K	7,192	7,192	+0	open	—	10-01 06:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	18	$10.3K	7,790	3,130	+4,660	No	+$394	09-20 19:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	15	$10.3K	6,152	6,152	+0	Yes	-$366	09-22 17:41
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	25	$10.2K	11,549	0	+11,549	Yes	+$1,320	09-01 20:31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	4	$9.4K	4,887	4,887	+0	No	+$173	09-02 11:58
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	14	$9.2K	5,840	5,840	+0	open	—	10-17 05:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	6	$9.0K	4,689	4,689	+0	Yes	+$118	08-31 05:01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	19	$8.7K	5,666	4,250	+1,416	open	—	10-24 09:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$8.6K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	09-01 16:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	11	$8.4K	4,804	4,804	+0	open	—	10-05 10:57
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	3	$7.9K	4,070	4,070	+0	No	+$82	08-25 14:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	8	$7.7K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	10-06 19:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	9	$7.6K	8,375	0	+8,375	No	+$729	10-13 11:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	7	$7.6K	4,903	3,064	+1,839	Yes	+$172	10-11 18:44
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	22	$7.6K	4,230	4,132	+98	open	—	10-25 06:26
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	4	$7.5K	3,844	3,844	+0	Yes	+$21	08-25 21:32
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	44	$7.3K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	10-24 08:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	6	$7.1K	4,470	3,393	+1,077	Yes	+$118	09-29 19:38
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	4	$6.9K	3,750	3,750	+0	open	—	10-11 01:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	5	$6.5K	4,562	2,281	+2,281	No	+$296	09-30 07:24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	10	$6.4K	5,246	1,422	+3,824	Yes	+$177	10-11 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:50:46	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xed1830…
10-27 20:43:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,280	69¢	$883	0xa86ec4…
10-26 18:04:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	348	91¢	$318	0x76b4b1…
10-26 17:59:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	702	92¢	$643	0x08a9a2…
10-26 14:29:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,280	75¢	$960	0x4fdd25…
10-26 12:48:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	780	94¢	$736	0x751c54…
10-26 10:32:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1,500	14¢	$210	0x289825…
10-26 10:31:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	2,046	5¢	$102	0xdfbaaf…
10-26 05:55:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	221	7¢	$15	0xfbf3c0…
10-26 05:51:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	1,825	7¢	$128	0xeeb840…
10-25 21:16:26	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$52	0xdb611b…
10-25 21:16:26	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	234	97¢	$228	0x6a6032…
10-25 16:48:18	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3,160	92¢	$2,907	0xa38e45…
10-25 16:23:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xdec9d6…
10-25 14:07:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	115	12¢	$14	0x6fc6d0…
10-25 14:03:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x14d12b…
10-25 13:45:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x610ad7…
10-25 13:30:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0xfcd046…
10-25 13:23:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	495	12¢	$59	0x08afde…
10-25 11:47:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	951	91¢	$865	0x704a13…
10-25 06:26:50	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	No	BUY	98	91¢	$89	0x39f5cf…
10-24 09:08:45	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xb7a3c9…
10-24 08:23:05	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,927	92¢	$1,773	0x5466f4…
10-24 03:35:00	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0x1314a0…
10-24 03:34:47	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0x58d331…
10-23 18:07:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	1,500	20¢	$300	0xe59eb1…
10-23 17:56:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0xd2c05e…
10-23 17:43:27	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xce5c37…
10-23 17:41:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	440	70¢	$308	0x6e3a10…
10-22 12:36:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,103	90¢	$4,593	0x61c99d…
10-22 12:36:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,705	98¢	$3,630	0x76e96e…
10-22 03:37:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x9ea159…
10-22 03:37:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,900	23¢	$437	0xa8edb3…
10-22 03:35:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0xb5ff3d…
10-22 03:34:59	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	21¢	$12	0x3bc267…
10-21 20:25:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	718	16¢	$118	0xc82a4a…
10-21 19:45:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0xc1454e…
10-21 19:37:12	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	600	33¢	$198	0x53df7c…
10-21 19:30:23	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xea5763…
10-21 18:33:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	2,550	32¢	$816	0x6bbf25…
10-21 18:31:05	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	900	99¢	$892	0x638167…
10-21 18:29:42	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0x8a6eae…
10-21 18:28:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	95¢	$44	0xc425e7…
10-21 18:27:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	254	95¢	$241	0x55db05…
10-21 18:27:11	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	93¢	$163	0x3d6264…
10-21 18:26:14	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,982	0x6344e3…
10-21 16:35:14	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	1,098	90¢	$987	0x22e997…
10-21 16:30:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,215	95¢	$1,159	0xbfbe05…
10-21 16:28:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	325	94¢	$305	0x560b7c…
10-21 16:28:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0xbe1b7f…
10-21 16:28:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	95¢	$143	0x945904…
10-21 16:27:54	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	159	95¢	$151	0xba5c0d…
10-21 16:27:54	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xa382ce…
10-21 16:27:29	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xb3974a…
10-21 16:26:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	3,512	98¢	$3,449	0x789c0e…
10-21 16:12:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,174	87¢	$3,631	0xc96c64…
10-21 15:12:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,705	98¢	$3,631	0xbef9b0…
10-21 03:25:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,070	87¢	$2,671	0x68272b…
10-20 21:12:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	2,725	98¢	$2,671	0xff29b9…
10-20 19:04:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	897	86¢	$771	0x86268e…
10-20 18:28:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	787	98¢	$771	0x4dba18…
10-20 05:27:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	2,871	8¢	$243	0x410bb5…
10-20 05:27:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	250	97¢	$244	0x6f11d1…
10-19 20:11:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	358	85¢	$304	0xe06a56…
10-19 18:07:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0x1a436b…
10-19 18:06:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x8c02bc…
10-19 18:06:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	126	28¢	$35	0x76a638…
10-19 18:06:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x2e8eae…
10-19 18:06:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xdc12b0…
10-19 18:04:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	90	32¢	$29	0xf3ac29…
10-19 18:04:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	88	32¢	$28	0xb2cac8…
10-19 18:04:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xa2be13…
10-19 18:03:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,200	32¢	$380	0x846588…
10-19 18:02:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0x90f3dd…
10-19 18:02:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	739	27¢	$201	0xe1bb71…
10-19 18:02:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	94	28¢	$26	0x894f2f…
10-19 18:02:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,100	98¢	$1,075	0xeaec8f…
10-19 10:07:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0xbc2216…
10-17 19:01:24	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xf22418…
10-17 17:24:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x477e8d…
10-17 17:24:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x10f234…
10-17 17:24:09	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	2,543	94¢	$2,392	0x95e068…
10-17 17:23:09	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xa9a8cd…
10-17 17:23:08	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	SELL	2,731	92¢	$2,513	0xb924be…
10-17 16:29:18	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	617	92¢	$570	0x690afb…
10-17 16:05:54	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$10	0xdfaed3…
10-17 16:00:50	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20?	No	BUY	324	89¢	$288	0x6f3416…
10-17 16:00:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	SELL	858	99¢	$848	0x6c571a…
10-17 11:12:21	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	2,938	94¢	$2,762	0xf822d4…
10-17 07:21:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	1,019	96¢	$973	0x56bd30…
10-17 06:38:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x11b50a…
10-17 06:38:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,662	97¢	$1,619	0x906c70…
10-17 05:38:58	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	2,128	94¢	$2,000	0x595b81…
10-17 05:35:47	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	2,119	66¢	$1,408	0x0d1073…
10-16 17:16:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	168	94¢	$158	0x8b00e8…
10-16 17:16:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xb1fc2d…
10-16 17:04:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0xa50f9b…
10-16 16:59:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0xe31fb6…
10-16 16:58:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	82	94¢	$77	0x721770…
10-16 13:41:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	716	98¢	$698	0x047940…