Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$235

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

Trades

110

lifetime

Volume

$14.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$129

Open exposure

$64

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 11-04 21:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Politics

67% 88% -$37

Other

25% 69% -$325

Tech

7% 100% +$148

Crypto

0% 100% +$9

Sports

0% 0% -$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No		+33	$30	99¢	$32	+$2	11-04 21:03
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+53	$30	60¢	$32	+$2	11-04 21:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$1.4K	841	630	+210	No	-$8	04-07 17:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$1.3K	1,400	0	+1,400	No	+$83	03-30 12:40
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	3	$711	733	0	+733	No	+$23	04-14 11:25
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$623	859	0	+859	Yes	+$236	04-11 08:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$547	571	0	+571	No	+$24	04-13 12:14
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	3	$472	443	443	+0	No	-$328	07-31 06:51
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$466	0	776	-776	Yes	-$311	05-17 22:08
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$422	468	0	+468	No	+$45	03-29 20:56
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$398	424	0	+424	No	+$26	05-07 13:38
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$340	362	272	+91	Yes	-$160	06-13 17:18
russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	2	$300	330	0	+330	Yes	-$300	06-24 20:01
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$250	275	0	+275	No	+$25	06-02 23:04
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$250	268	0	+268	No	+$18	06-02 23:03
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	1	$250	261	0	+261	No	+$11	08-31 00:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$249	259	0	+259	No	+$10	04-10 04:21
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	1	$200	417	0	+417	open	—	10-11 16:13
iran full airspace closure by july 27	1	$200	205	0	+205	No	+$5	07-26 14:42
russia ukraine peace talks by june 30 2026 20260609012542187	1	$200	215	0	+215	No	+$15	06-20 07:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$199	249	0	+249	Yes	+$50	05-01 18:09
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$199	219	0	+219	Yes	+$20	04-08 16:06
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$199	219	0	+219	No	+$20	05-07 13:38
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	2	$190	109	109	+0	Yes	-$10	09-20 16:16
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$187	210	0	+210	No	+$24	05-31 10:22
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$184	192	0	+192	Yes	+$7	05-17 22:12
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	2	$169	139	139	+0	open	—	07-17 14:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$150	183	0	+183	No	+$33	05-22 06:22
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	1	$150	156	0	+156	No	+$6	06-06 12:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$150	163	0	+163	No	+$13	05-22 06:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	1	$150	163	0	+163	No	+$13	09-10 04:49
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$150	174	0	+174	No	+$24	09-10 04:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 21:06:04	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0x798238…
11-04 21:03:22	Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xfd5aae…
10-18 08:27:50	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x42e610…
10-12 05:33:15	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x7e60ce…
10-11 16:13:07	Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	BUY	417	48¢	$200	0xb57041…
10-10 19:43:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x452534…
09-20 16:16:34	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	109	83¢	$90	0x7cee81…
09-10 04:49:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	174	86¢	$150	0xa50972…
09-10 04:49:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	163	92¢	$150	0xa49890…
08-31 00:19:31	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x82f1d3…
08-31 00:19:18	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x93d1d0…
08-31 00:18:30	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x940d95…
08-31 00:13:48	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	BUY	261	96¢	$250	0x2c332a…
07-31 10:24:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x64314f…
07-31 06:51:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	443	16¢	$72	0xc1a8d8…
07-30 12:05:47	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0xd8124c…
07-29 07:10:14	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x159dbf…
07-26 14:42:03	iran full airspace closure by july 27	No	BUY	205	97¢	$200	0xda6962…
07-26 14:41:54	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x69f1a0…
07-17 14:03:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	139	50¢	$69	0xb296e3…
07-14 20:21:35	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x4e6a38…
07-12 11:17:47	will russia enter ternuvate again by july 31	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xdceeaa…
07-12 11:17:29	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0xbf7774…
07-12 11:17:19	will ukraine re enter hryshyne by july 31 20260604220043035	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xa09dc0…
07-12 11:17:04	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x42df42…
07-12 11:16:40	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	BUY	28	91¢	$25	0x99a8ed…
07-12 11:16:29	will russia enter krasnoiarske by july 31	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x10ad17…
07-12 11:15:34	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x319350…
07-12 10:58:26	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x29a4dd…
07-12 10:57:52	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x1b91e1…
07-09 20:27:14	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0xf42d51…
07-07 22:44:17	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x96ee52…
07-06 22:00:46	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Nothing	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x6f8637…
07-06 20:53:23	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x416d47…
07-05 21:52:19	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xe849b3…
07-05 21:41:58	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x66dac0…
07-05 11:01:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x156758…
07-04 20:00:16	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x6b352c…
07-04 08:02:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x410aeb…
07-01 21:55:11	Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0xa45020…
07-01 21:51:44	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	121	11¢	$14	0x97e4c1…
07-01 21:49:52	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x90a257…
07-01 17:58:59	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x3244f7…
07-01 17:48:26	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xc73704…
06-28 03:58:40	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6e12e3…
06-28 03:55:56	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x87d91d…
06-28 03:47:32	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x669969…
06-28 03:40:17	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x9be48c…
06-26 12:02:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x4ecf6a…
06-26 06:22:55	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	66	69¢	$46	0x394e84…
06-24 20:01:11	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xa312b0…
06-22 18:44:16	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0xb4e53c…
06-22 18:36:44	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x849e3c…
06-22 17:39:46	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xa515f2…
06-21 11:36:26	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xaf5e21…
06-21 06:30:13	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	39¢	$20	0xe679c7…
06-20 11:09:07	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	51	67¢	$34	0x371def…
06-20 07:15:35	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0xdc9a98…
06-20 07:10:55	russia ukraine peace talks by june 30 2026 20260609012542187	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x6e213d…
06-20 07:08:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x409550…
06-20 07:07:52	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xde34f6…
06-15 21:36:55	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	153	2¢	$3	0x888d40…
06-13 17:18:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	272	33¢	$90	0xdbb88c…
06-06 12:36:31	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xf06872…
06-06 12:36:21	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x18b398…
06-06 12:36:03	will ukraine re enter kamianske by june 30	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x14c950…
06-06 12:35:46	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x9b2a8d…
06-06 12:35:36	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x882e56…
06-06 12:35:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x68cdcd…
06-06 12:35:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$150	0x7191fc…
06-06 12:30:49	Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xfc6e84…
06-06 12:28:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x54834b…
06-02 23:04:18	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	275	91¢	$250	0xfeb9ca…
06-02 23:03:15	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	268	93¢	$250	0xac7afb…
06-02 23:02:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	362	69¢	$250	0xf86358…
05-31 10:22:53	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	88	98¢	$87	0x505659…
05-31 08:07:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0x28f308…
05-29 16:17:52	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xc55420…
05-29 16:16:50	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xd6fa27…
05-29 16:15:00	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xde3728…
05-29 16:13:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x0db68e…
05-28 18:33:28	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	80¢	$100	0x0dae17…
05-25 12:07:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	76¢	$102	0x6dae44…
05-22 06:22:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	183	82¢	$150	0x9eff95…
05-22 06:21:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	163	92¢	$150	0xb00bb1…
05-17 22:12:07	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	192	96¢	$184	0xa428a8…
05-17 22:08:09	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	776	60¢	$466	0x75cca0…
05-17 15:08:38	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	69¢	$61	0x4c14e3…
05-07 13:43:38	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x8d6998…
05-07 13:38:48	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	207	96¢	$199	0xd99e1b…
05-07 13:38:32	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	219	91¢	$199	0x866313…
05-01 18:13:10	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	216	92¢	$199	0x87f34f…
05-01 18:09:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	249	80¢	$199	0x0a64c1…
04-24 15:53:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	109	91¢	$99	0x8f4280…
04-15 09:29:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	76	75¢	$57	0xf34f6d…
04-14 15:27:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	76	79¢	$60	0x119adf…
04-14 11:25:53	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	173	98¢	$171	0x3296e3…
04-13 23:38:47	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	349	98¢	$341	0xa1d495…
04-13 12:14:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	306	97¢	$298	0x39fb6a…
04-12 20:48:07	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	211	94¢	$199	0x87062a…