Flustered-Blast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,111

lifetime

Volume

$11.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-05

last 05-08 14:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

57% 34% $-35

Politics

29% 78% +$7

Tech

12% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	105	$258	411	195	+216	open	—	04-26 04:40
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	89	$245	391	229	+162	Yes	$-17	04-26 04:54
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	63	$216	309	152	+157	open	—	04-24 13:36
will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	64	$209	286	146	+140	open	—	04-22 01:09
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	60	$181	256	98	+157	No	+$5	04-27 18:48
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	39	$179	233	102	+131	open	—	04-28 10:03
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	49	$169	213	174	+39	open	—	04-26 14:00
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	44	$161	174	162	+11	open	—	04-28 03:26
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	63	$157	310	127	+183	open	—	04-27 10:22
will otto ritter win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 232	42	$149	214	86	+128	open	—	04-16 04:31
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	37	$148	620	550	+69	open	—	04-27 22:10
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	43	$136	266	172	+94	open	—	04-28 09:38
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	50	$130	177	110	+67	open	—	04-15 06:20
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	32	$123	147	105	+42	open	—	04-28 03:34
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	29	$121	105	81	+24	open	—	04-28 16:54
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	31	$106	145	73	+72	open	—	04-26 07:08
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	21	$99	111	76	+35	open	—	04-26 08:13
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	30	$97	120	83	+37	open	—	04-23 05:55
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?	27	$95	142	43	+100	open	—	04-26 16:46
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?	31	$94	147	47	+100	open	—	04-18 17:23
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	38	$93	176	98	+77	open	—	04-26 09:11
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	19	$92	95	71	+24	No	$-1	04-28 01:03
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	23	$92	104	84	+20	open	—	04-22 05:44
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	23	$89	108	76	+32	open	—	04-26 20:50
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	23	$89	107	68	+39	Yes	+$1	04-25 23:17
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	37	$88	161	100	+62	open	—	04-27 12:04
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026?	33	$88	182	50	+132	open	—	04-27 11:49
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026?	25	$87	121	57	+64	open	—	04-25 19:50
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	28	$86	71	71	+0	open	—	04-22 11:24
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 4pt5 and 5pt0	29	$85	98	48	+50	open	—	04-15 21:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 14:31:59	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x25e8ee…
05-08 14:31:43	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$2	0x9155a9…
05-08 10:00:16	Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x3ecb7a…
05-01 16:13:42	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	71¢	$9	0x8ca7e8…
04-28 19:37:24	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	12	70¢	$8	0x4e937f…
04-28 16:57:08	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x4aaf86…
04-28 16:54:40	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0x857ed2…
04-28 14:05:24	Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x793e9a…
04-28 14:04:04	Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x3df152…
04-28 13:54:44	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0xa81838…
04-28 13:33:26	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x7f6295…
04-28 10:32:56	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	No	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0xe7fa4f…
04-28 10:32:36	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0xfdff8f…
04-28 10:31:06	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x4424d3…
04-28 10:30:32	Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0xa5503c…
04-28 10:30:20	Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x322448…
04-28 10:13:26	Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026	Yes	SELL	12	26¢	$3	0x6dde70…
04-28 10:03:16	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xedfecb…
04-28 10:02:38	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	14	87¢	$12	0x7c7ab8…
04-28 09:44:50	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x549e35…
04-28 09:38:20	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	No	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x1204e6…
04-28 09:34:30	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	No	SELL	7	65¢	$4	0xc46046…
04-28 09:25:06	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x05512c…
04-28 09:17:42	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x924370…
04-28 09:08:40	Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xf40e6b…
04-28 08:18:52	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0xefc10e…
04-28 08:16:20	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x27747b…
04-28 08:09:46	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xe94ef7…
04-28 08:09:34	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd8f2f6…
04-28 08:09:34	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x18c96e…
04-28 08:09:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	65¢	$7	0x47044d…
04-28 08:06:34	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x4550cd…
04-28 08:02:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x122f65…
04-28 07:58:36	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x95c85b…
04-28 07:54:32	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?	No	SELL	12	69¢	$8	0x55fbcc…
04-28 07:49:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x9ea27a…
04-28 07:43:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x84d67a…
04-28 07:08:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	62¢	$1	0x6547d3…
04-28 07:03:58	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xc1782e…
04-28 07:02:46	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x250153…
04-28 06:58:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0x0f0d8e…
04-28 06:54:04	Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x87a010…
04-28 06:53:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xde40ee…
04-28 06:53:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x2f6675…
04-28 06:40:54	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	22¢	$2	0x15c06c…
04-28 06:40:10	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xbda2ed…
04-28 06:29:18	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	30¢	$4	0x89e3f3…
04-28 06:24:24	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0xa756bf…
04-28 06:23:24	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	SELL	2	23¢	$1	0xbe7c29…
04-28 06:10:16	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xdd4ded…
04-28 06:08:04	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x6aaee2…
04-28 06:07:38	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xf044a4…
04-28 06:04:38	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$8	0x06971e…
04-28 06:02:42	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xf973b3…
04-28 05:58:58	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	SELL	9	9¢	$1	0xf68297…
04-28 05:53:32	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x325f49…
04-28 05:44:36	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xf00d4c…
04-28 05:44:36	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0xa2e8fe…
04-28 05:44:36	Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x2a0432…
04-28 05:44:36	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x1b359c…
04-28 05:40:06	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	SELL	4	72¢	$3	0x002cb7…
04-28 05:28:06	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0xb8d7af…
04-28 05:21:24	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0x436d67…
04-28 04:31:28	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x9ee9af…
04-28 04:31:26	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x786389…
04-28 04:31:26	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0x71e1e8…
04-28 03:34:40	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x708052…
04-28 03:26:54	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0x5ff84d…
04-28 03:04:42	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x9392a4…
04-28 02:39:26	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x6dd8a9…
04-28 02:33:14	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x2765e5…
04-28 02:33:10	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x0e22fc…
04-28 02:22:58	Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0xfe8142…
04-28 02:04:06	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x56c402…
04-28 02:03:52	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xcf5998…
04-28 01:59:44	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x6eb115…
04-28 01:21:54	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xff86ee…
04-28 01:04:06	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x795707…
04-28 01:03:16	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	No	SELL	11	64¢	$7	0x2e7157…
04-28 00:45:32	Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5d91aa…
04-28 00:38:16	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4d95f6…
04-28 00:33:18	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa6d78f…
04-28 00:12:44	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x3b0f1a…
04-27 23:47:58	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xf7700c…
04-27 23:38:44	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xfa67c1…
04-27 23:37:56	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xa10cf0…
04-27 23:21:38	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0xa259be…
04-27 23:11:52	Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	No	SELL	12	79¢	$9	0x5dc389…
04-27 23:10:28	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xeadef2…
04-27 23:03:08	Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	No	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x9dbd53…
04-27 22:59:00	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x0ba471…
04-27 22:35:32	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0x2e265d…
04-27 22:25:04	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0x0f9d8a…
04-27 22:11:14	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x32405f…
04-27 22:10:30	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	17	20¢	$3	0x699c2b…
04-27 21:46:34	Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x94cadd…
04-27 21:45:28	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	No	SELL	33	65¢	$22	0x53a6d5…
04-27 21:29:18	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x9c1b2d…
04-27 21:24:04	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0xed73e3…
04-27 21:18:20	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xe118bc…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	405	$431.6K	33,547	06-01 02:51
(anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d	378	$224.2K	20,780	04-28 00:01
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	367	$200.9K	26,090	05-31 23:47
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	350	$252.9K	19,496	06-01 01:14
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	346	$63.1K	15,647	05-17 13:07
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	332	$48.2K	7,787	05-29 19:36
Fuzzy-Tog 0x356b…1c3f	313	$1.93K	2,346	05-11 10:40
Full-Bow 0x59fe…14fd	290	$15.6K	7,348	05-11 12:23