Costly-Cabana — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

10.1%

Resolved

Trades

132

lifetime

Volume

$28.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$213

Open exposure

$35

1 position

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-22 12:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Politics

89% 50% -$43

Other

7% 98% +$3

Crypto

4% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No		+35	$35	100¢	$35	+$0	10-22 11:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	14	$15.0K	30,000	0	+30,000	Yes	$0	02-20 09:01
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	10	$10.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	-$43	02-20 07:58
highest temperature in lucknow on april 5 2026 42c	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	04-04 03:33
highest temperature in lucknow on march 27 2026 40c	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	03-27 03:13
highest temperature in lucknow on march 26 2026 43c	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	03-26 04:54
highest temperature in seoul on march 25 2026 7c	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	03-24 02:55
highest temperature in london on march 22 2026 7corbelow	1	$129	129	0	+129	No	+$0	03-21 07:21
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$117	118	0	+118	No	+$1	03-29 08:40
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	1	$95	95	0	+95	No	+$0	04-16 05:58
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	05-18 16:25
highest temperature in moscow on april 13 2026 4c	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	04-12 04:03
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	08-14 03:00
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$46	24	24	+0	open	—	09-25 15:38
will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the united states in january 2026	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	$0	02-07 04:20
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	09-14 02:29
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	3	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	09-08 08:20
solana above 120 on march 4	2	$38	19	19	+0	No	+$0	03-04 15:42
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on October 24?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	10-22 12:01
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on May 10?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	05-09 03:19
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	1	$35	35	0	+35	open	—	10-22 11:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 8?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	06-06 05:21
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 9 2026 30c	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-10 02:58
highest temperature in moscow on april 12 2026 15c	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	04-12 04:04
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	06-18 13:10
will the price of ethereum be greater than 2600 on march 11	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	03-10 02:56
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on October 23?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	10-22 12:01
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on October 24?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	10-22 11:59
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	09-14 02:28
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on July 3?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	07-02 10:49
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	08-06 02:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 12:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on October 23?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6b8ed0…
10-22 12:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on October 24?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x453127…
10-22 11:59:44	Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on October 24?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xd6f3a2…
10-22 11:58:54	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x69756a…
10-22 11:57:00	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x587873…
09-25 15:38:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0xce620f…
09-14 02:29:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x946f59…
09-14 02:28:57	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xcb1897…
09-14 02:28:42	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1361ab…
09-08 08:20:09	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x7f4351…
08-21 07:04:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x518109…
08-14 03:00:28	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xa9b0cc…
08-06 02:22:54	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xc7ba54…
08-06 02:22:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x43ba90…
08-06 02:22:03	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x63bbce…
08-06 02:21:41	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x6b55f9…
08-06 02:21:26	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xab06ec…
07-02 10:50:34	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x70caf2…
07-02 10:49:52	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf5309d…
07-02 10:49:26	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on July 3?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x43340d…
07-02 10:48:58	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on July 2?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5de79e…
07-02 10:48:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on July 4?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x410623…
07-02 10:48:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C or below on July 3?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xdb71e4…
06-18 13:10:11	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x38ac18…
06-06 05:21:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 8?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x40bd79…
06-06 05:21:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 6?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6c5391…
06-06 05:20:31	bitcoin above 76k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x7bca4a…
06-06 05:20:18	bitcoin above 74k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1a3c00…
06-06 05:20:04	bitcoin above 70k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe48a8d…
06-06 05:19:49	bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x1f7f77…
06-06 05:19:03	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3101d3…
05-18 16:25:48	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xd768c1…
05-09 03:21:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 9?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x989e0b…
05-09 03:20:22	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x590b9e…
05-09 03:19:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 10?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x963543…
05-09 03:19:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on May 10?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xf4b1a9…
04-16 05:58:52	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x3b1761…
04-12 04:04:21	highest temperature in moscow on april 12 2026 15c	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x4268ee…
04-12 04:03:55	highest temperature in moscow on april 13 2026 4c	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x6aac92…
04-04 03:33:41	highest temperature in lucknow on april 5 2026 42c	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x8805c6…
03-31 09:32:39	xrp above 1pt1 on march 31	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xcbf20f…
03-29 08:40:02	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	118	100¢	$117	0xda7344…
03-29 08:39:06	highest temperature in warsaw on march 29 2026 12c	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3860aa…
03-27 03:13:21	highest temperature in lucknow on march 27 2026 40c	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x24c282…
03-26 04:54:31	highest temperature in lucknow on march 26 2026 43c	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xb69f12…
03-24 02:55:57	highest temperature in seoul on march 25 2026 7c	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x032ece…
03-21 07:21:09	highest temperature in london on march 22 2026 7corbelow	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x8b028b…
03-17 10:09:57	solana above 140 on march 20	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x142abf…
03-17 10:09:03	solana above 140 on march 19	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfef89c…
03-17 10:08:49	solana above 70 on march 18	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb17fa7…
03-17 10:08:13	bitcoin above 60k on march 19	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x4b278a…
03-17 10:08:03	bitcoin above 64k on march 18	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1543f7…
03-17 10:07:45	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x7c5859…
03-15 09:28:25	highest temperature in shanghai on march 15 2026 17corhigher	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xeb1681…
03-15 09:27:31	highest temperature in shanghai on march 17 2026 5corbelow	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x903d2a…
03-15 09:27:15	highest temperature in shanghai on march 16 2026 8c	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8c3ee7…
03-15 09:24:29	highest temperature in wellington on march 17 2026 13corbelow	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe9e0aa…
03-15 09:24:17	highest temperature in wellington on march 16 2026 15c	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x29f658…
03-15 09:23:51	highest temperature in seoul on march 17 2026 3corbelow	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x3b4938…
03-15 09:23:33	highest temperature in seoul on march 16 2026 4c	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x031c61…
03-10 02:58:25	highest temperature in buenos aires on march 9 2026 30c	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x628bee…
03-10 02:56:59	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2600 on march 11	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xff07a7…
03-10 02:56:11	ethereum above 2600 on march 12	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x07b09d…
03-10 02:55:59	ethereum above 1600 on march 11	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5e071c…
03-10 02:55:43	ethereum above 2300 on march 10	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x41a3f7…
03-05 00:58:49	will the price of solana be less than 40 on march 6	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2bafe1…
03-05 00:58:23	will the price of solana be between 60 70 on march 5	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xee4e3f…
03-05 00:58:03	solana above 30 on march 8	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa3e7ef…
03-05 00:57:49	solana above 30 on march 7	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x20de35…
03-05 00:57:39	solana above 50 on march 6	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1bb111…
03-05 00:57:23	solana above 110 on march 5	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xdc62c8…
03-04 15:42:23	solana above 120 on march 4	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x16c020…
03-03 04:34:59	solana above 120 on march 4	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x00325d…
03-03 04:34:39	solana above 110 on march 3	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc239d1…
03-03 04:33:53	will the price of ethereum be less than 1500 on march 5	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x5ff452…
03-03 04:33:33	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on march 4	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd9a80e…
03-03 04:33:15	will the price of ethereum be between 1500 1600 on march 3	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf0f202…
02-24 12:00:44	xrp above 1pt8 on february 26	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb61197…
02-24 12:00:28	xrp above 1 on february 25	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf24b58…
02-24 11:59:40	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 420 439	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1028ca…
02-24 11:59:28	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 80 99	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1eb922…
02-24 11:59:14	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 120 139	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x02fb8b…
02-24 11:59:00	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 580plus	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1c69c4…
02-21 02:37:34	will ethereum reach 2700 february 16 22	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf86dc2…
02-21 02:36:24	will bitcoin reach 80k february 16 22	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x390e00…
02-21 02:35:38	bitcoin above 60k on february 22	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6bd19c…
02-20 09:19:56	will solana dip to 30 february 16 22	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5a4edb…
02-20 09:19:36	solana above 30 on february 23	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8b0bbb…
02-20 09:19:24	solana above 40 on february 22	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x13cee0…
02-20 09:19:16	solana above 60 on february 21	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xecd9d3…
02-20 09:01:02	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	3,369	26¢	$876	0x8c8c2b…
02-20 08:57:38	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	54	26¢	$14	0xeed5ef…
02-20 08:57:24	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	27	26¢	$7	0xf982c5…
02-20 08:57:16	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	46	26¢	$12	0x32dc73…
02-20 08:57:04	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	32	26¢	$8	0xfde244…
02-20 08:54:24	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0xdf5a85…
02-20 08:53:56	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x0ab138…
02-20 08:53:54	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	5,000	26¢	$1,300	0x5e6f7d…
02-20 08:52:26	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0x24545a…
02-20 08:52:08	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x89826a…