Realized P&L
-$263
Unrealized P&L
-$427
Hit rate
57.2%
Resolved
10
Trades
6,045
lifetime
Volume
$547.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$90
Open exposure
$353
11 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 00:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
48% 38% $-82
Other
43% 0% $-182
Crypto
7%
Tech
1%
Sports
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 236 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +2,088 $252 $143 $-109 06-25 22:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes -1,004 $-175 10¢ $-95 +$80 06-09 15:45
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes -1,009 $-171 $-81 +$91 05-29 01:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes -3,935 $145 $-10 $-155 06-12 15:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +1,174 $254 $8 $-247 06-17 18:52
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Yes -7,219 $-32 $-7 +$25 05-28 17:23
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Yes -47 $-2 11¢ $-5 $-3 06-01 18:37
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes -1,861 $-11 $-3 +$8 06-16 14:28
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes -402 $-4 $-1 +$3 06-16 02:27
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes +257 $7 $0 $-7 06-22 00:06
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +81 $114 $0 $-114 06-27 12:44