Inferior-Fry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$132.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

86.0%

Resolved

6,271

Trades

106,718

lifetime

Volume

$8.34M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$49

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 10-17 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 66% +$133,012

Politics

4% 75% +$716

Other

3% 74% -$480

Sports

1% 75% -$489

Tech

0% 100% +$169

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$157

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 2789 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+51	$47	96¢	$49	+$2	07-07 05:47
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	07-01 10:52
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	Yes	+0	-$9	4¢	$0	+$9	08-30 01:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	74	$242.0K	158,153	85,500	+72,653	No	+$775	06-03 23:29
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	18	$84.3K	47,806	37,000	+10,806	Yes	+$445	06-07 20:24
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	34	$73.9K	74,004	0	+74,004	Yes	+$142	06-18 00:07
will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	37	$60.9K	61,000	0	+61,000	No	+$61	07-29 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 00:05 UTC	39	$60.3K	62,737	0	+62,737	Up	+$234	07-04 00:09
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	5	$59.9K	60,000	0	+60,000	No	+$60	07-19 21:24
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	45	$51.2K	52,511	2,504	+50,007	Yes	-$54	07-07 21:00
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	64	$49.0K	49,000	0	+49,000	Yes	+$49	07-20 00:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	17	$44.1K	44,120	0	+44,120	Up	+$69	08-23 10:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	41	$42.0K	22,000	20,000	+2,000	No	+$2	05-29 19:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-24 09:45 UTC	4	$40.0K	40,050	0	+40,050	Up	+$40	08-24 09:59
bitcoin up or down june 21 2026 7am et	11	$39.1K	39,173	0	+39,173	Down	+$56	06-21 12:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?	34	$32.7K	32,478	333	+32,145	Yes	+$15	06-02 10:58
will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	76	$32.2K	34,488	2,000	+32,488	No	+$265	08-29 12:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	41	$32.1K	32,236	0	+32,236	Down	+$115	05-19 13:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:45 UTC	17	$31.8K	31,874	0	+31,874	Up	+$49	06-16 17:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	10	$30.9K	30,928	0	+30,928	Down	+$40	08-24 03:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 20:00 UTC	38	$30.0K	30,132	0	+30,132	Up	+$120	06-18 20:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 23:10 UTC	77	$29.9K	31,493	0	+31,493	Down	+$344	07-04 23:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 22:00 UTC	36	$28.5K	28,527	0	+28,527	Down	+$63	07-12 22:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 03:15 UTC	25	$27.7K	27,741	0	+27,741	Down	+$84	06-19 03:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 06:30 UTC	10	$27.1K	27,187	0	+27,187	Up	+$102	06-27 06:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 06:15 UTC	36	$26.5K	26,852	0	+26,852	Up	+$105	08-20 06:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-24 11:45 UTC	55	$25.4K	26,231	0	+26,231	Down	+$48	08-24 12:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-27 02:20 UTC	21	$25.2K	25,283	0	+25,283	Up	+$92	06-27 02:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 07:00 UTC	21	$24.9K	28,089	0	+28,089	Up	+$188	06-28 07:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	15	$24.6K	22,500	2,500	+20,000	Yes	+$29	06-17 12:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 00:50 UTC	27	$24.5K	24,960	0	+24,960	Down	-$74	07-09 00:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 01:00 UTC	13	$24.5K	24,557	0	+24,557	Down	+$34	07-01 01:05
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	55	$23.9K	13,030	11,332	+1,698	No	+$26	05-19 10:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 00:13:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xdaa776…
10-17 00:13:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xc8dd41…
10-17 00:12:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x1074bc…
10-17 00:12:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x6ffe4d…
10-17 00:12:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x81ced6…
10-17 00:12:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x2b4f54…
10-17 00:12:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x0ea03b…
10-17 00:12:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xce30f1…
10-17 00:11:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x7d55db…
10-17 00:01:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	153	65¢	$100	0xf2b36d…
10-17 00:01:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x545157…
10-17 00:01:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x0de5f1…
10-17 00:01:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x6c87ae…
10-17 00:01:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x9dc5bb…
10-17 00:01:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x3f15b8…
10-17 00:01:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x1151c3…
10-17 00:01:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x65d156…
10-17 00:01:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xb3db76…
10-17 00:00:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x391ab3…
10-17 00:00:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xa33493…
10-17 00:00:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xedf939…
10-17 00:00:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0xf667c8…
10-16 23:59:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xc2d3bb…
10-16 23:59:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	85	24¢	$20	0xcb240e…
10-16 23:59:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	82	24¢	$20	0x8f0399…
10-16 23:59:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	68	29¢	$20	0x55fc91…
10-16 23:59:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0x24d5f8…
10-16 23:58:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x341803…
10-16 23:58:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	44	71¢	$31	0xdd96b9…
10-16 23:58:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	174	58¢	$100	0xedf8f0…
10-16 23:58:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	141	58¢	$82	0xa53b5c…
10-16 23:58:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x82b1e9…
10-16 23:58:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x435b81…
10-16 23:58:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x6bbfeb…
10-16 23:58:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:55 UTC	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xc43a65…
10-16 23:58:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:55 UTC	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x8eb75d…
10-16 23:43:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:40 UTC	Down	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xd48b65…
10-16 23:18:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x29ab79…
10-13 10:11:26	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	500	93¢	$464	0xfb39ba…
10-13 10:08:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	31	85¢	$26	0x670c6d…
10-13 10:08:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x0a9d78…
10-13 10:08:26	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x62e4f0…
10-13 10:08:25	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x4ae85e…
10-13 10:08:25	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x1b06a5…
10-13 10:08:25	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x1a938d…
10-13 10:08:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xf16824…
10-13 10:08:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe0dde7…
10-13 10:08:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x28fc93…
10-13 10:08:20	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x653320…
10-13 10:08:20	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x28ecd3…
10-13 10:08:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x7faa68…
10-13 10:08:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x7e8543…
10-13 10:08:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x5a1702…
10-13 10:08:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x3e7031…
10-13 10:08:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0x00d914…
10-13 10:08:17	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	41	28¢	$12	0x408010…
10-13 10:08:14	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x72f99c…
10-13 10:08:14	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x6fa829…
10-13 10:08:14	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x23ff44…
10-13 10:06:29	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	23	59¢	$14	0xf392d8…
10-13 10:06:29	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xd28aa3…
10-13 10:06:29	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0x635603…
10-13 10:06:26	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x3f00cb…
10-13 10:06:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0x8d4294…
10-13 10:06:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x712833…
10-13 10:06:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x499780…
10-13 10:06:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x287d66…
10-13 10:06:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0xfb3be7…
10-13 10:06:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x51c269…
10-13 10:06:20	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	59¢	$11	0xc72b2b…
10-13 10:06:20	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x9a22f6…
10-13 10:06:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x4ebfff…
10-13 10:06:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	300	64¢	$193	0x176afc…
10-13 10:03:41	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x40b24d…
10-13 09:51:26	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0xe62970…
10-13 09:22:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xdbe391…
10-13 09:22:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	41	60¢	$25	0xd64ed3…
10-13 09:22:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x5dd078…
10-13 09:22:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x55c931…
09-12 13:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	36	13¢	$5	0x2717b2…
09-12 13:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	64	13¢	$8	0x1445a5…
09-12 13:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x61ce23…
09-12 13:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	200	76¢	$153	0x68775a…
09-12 13:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd86f19…
09-12 12:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xd2a29a…
09-12 05:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	250	57¢	$142	0x94d6e5…
09-12 05:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	80	51¢	$41	0xb94e85…
09-12 05:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	200	54¢	$109	0x290fca…
09-04 12:31:36	will bitcoin reach 100k in september 2026	No	SELL	1,500	94¢	$1,408	0x7db90d…
09-04 09:23:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0xaa6877…
09-04 07:34:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6,001	97¢	$5,798	0x6f6c0b…
09-04 07:26:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	93¢	$4,650	0xfd6640…
09-03 16:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd39c3f…
09-03 16:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x300d12…
09-03 16:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x234153…
09-03 16:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xdab022…
09-03 16:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x2e1f5c…
09-03 16:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x7396ac…
09-03 16:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x1ebbf4…
09-03 16:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	367	97¢	$356	0x12871e…