Keen-Nobody — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

26.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,773

lifetime

Volume

$8.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-11

last 06-04 08:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

34% 25% $-21

Other

28% 0% $-2

Crypto

25% 0% $-0

Sports

11% 50% $-24

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 400 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes		-26	$-1	4¢	$-1	+$0	05-29 09:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	22	$344	758	758	+0	open	—	05-19 07:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	56	$207	308	313	-5	open	—	04-21 05:17
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	67	$174	264	283	-19	open	—	03-22 09:59
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$152	362	362	+0	open	—	04-21 05:18
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	7	$143	324	324	+0	open	—	04-19 22:22
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	40	$140	203	203	+0	open	—	03-22 09:59
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	40	$121	119	131	-12	open	—	03-22 08:39
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	61	$116	175	175	+0	open	—	03-22 08:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	6	$112	131	131	+0	open	—	05-19 12:03
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	13	$109	199	199	+0	open	—	04-26 03:11
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	32	$104	142	160	-19	open	—	03-22 10:00
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	16	$103	341	341	+0	open	—	04-21 16:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	10	$98	129	129	+0	open	—	05-20 07:00
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	34	$94	113	113	+0	open	—	04-25 07:56
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	12	$93	271	271	+0	open	—	04-24 14:57
will ethereum reach 2600 in march 2026	31	$87	132	132	+0	open	—	03-22 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	28	$84	110	100	+10	open	—	05-29 20:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$83	75	47	+28	Yes	$-20	04-30 18:10
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	10	$80	106	106	+0	open	—	04-21 16:11
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	3	$76	64	34	+30	open	—	04-22 06:58
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 140 164	13	$73	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	03-21 10:40
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$72	54	54	+0	open	—	04-21 16:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	6	$71	69	69	+0	open	—	04-28 06:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	8	$69	180	198	-18	open	—	04-12 01:18
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	4	$66	44	44	+0	open	—	04-26 08:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	4	$65	45	45	+0	open	—	05-17 23:53
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael Jodar	2	$64	37	37	+0	open	—	04-28 15:08
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	20	$63	118	163	-45	open	—	03-26 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	21	$63	79	69	+10	open	—	05-29 14:23
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	27	$63	146	153	-7	open	—	03-22 08:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 08:58:21	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x44e0df…
06-04 08:58:01	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xb221f2…
06-04 08:56:49	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 4 2026	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xd6b7af…
06-01 12:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0xbfeab5…
06-01 12:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x059a3d…
06-01 12:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0x8bcfdc…
06-01 12:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	16	16¢	$3	0x989a18…
06-01 12:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0xcd6ddb…
06-01 12:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0x11e8a3…
06-01 12:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xf280e1…
06-01 11:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x866d8c…
06-01 11:48:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0xbd15e5…
06-01 11:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	16	19¢	$3	0x1c8d70…
06-01 11:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	15¢	$2	0x661dac…
06-01 10:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	17	15¢	$3	0xffe082…
06-01 10:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xf7f6ff…
06-01 10:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0xe44510…
06-01 10:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x469922…
06-01 10:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	27	19¢	$5	0xc288eb…
06-01 10:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x54d374…
06-01 10:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	23	15¢	$3	0x996652…
06-01 10:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xfea4d5…
06-01 10:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0xb94e25…
06-01 10:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	18	13¢	$2	0x5502cd…
06-01 10:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xa6549e…
06-01 10:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0xe180b3…
06-01 10:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xafb891…
06-01 09:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x943efb…
06-01 09:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcf31a0…
06-01 09:45:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0xf3453f…
06-01 09:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xbe0e5f…
06-01 09:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0x0cf95a…
06-01 09:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x265bcc…
06-01 09:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	33	16¢	$5	0xd66aea…
06-01 09:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x3521ad…
06-01 09:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xc7e36b…
06-01 09:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	12	21¢	$3	0x647fe3…
06-01 09:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0xb488a1…
06-01 09:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0x07e175…
06-01 09:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x0b10e4…
06-01 09:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x679b1a…
06-01 09:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x08cc0b…
06-01 09:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x41e437…
06-01 09:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x55c633…
06-01 09:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0xb91ae6…
06-01 09:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	18	14¢	$2	0xb6b87c…
06-01 08:56:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0x7f86c4…
06-01 08:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	15¢	$3	0xa6f62d…
06-01 08:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	27	15¢	$4	0x312a62…
06-01 08:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x9a98fa…
06-01 08:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x21985f…
06-01 08:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0x0c87b3…
06-01 08:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x3cd0d9…
06-01 08:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x7e67ee…
06-01 08:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xfc538f…
06-01 08:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	125	3¢	$4	0x596168…
06-01 08:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0x82fbe6…
06-01 08:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	62	6¢	$4	0x0a7b6b…
06-01 08:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	14	18¢	$2	0x6940ff…
06-01 08:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xbac235…
06-01 08:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0x453145…
06-01 08:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xe7a30c…
06-01 08:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	41	18¢	$8	0x83a5e2…
06-01 08:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xafb03b…
06-01 08:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x8035cc…
06-01 08:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xabe2f9…
06-01 08:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0xbdb0c2…
06-01 08:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	18	15¢	$3	0x633b54…
06-01 07:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	37	19¢	$7	0xc8555d…
06-01 07:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x348f3b…
06-01 07:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x526a8d…
06-01 07:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0x689151…
06-01 07:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x50f540…
06-01 07:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0xed22e9…
06-01 07:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0xb60315…
06-01 07:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0x065a00…
06-01 07:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0x469ada…
06-01 07:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	9	15¢	$1	0xdf2bb5…
06-01 07:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0xcf97a0…
06-01 07:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0xa505a0…
06-01 07:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0xed3089…
06-01 07:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x337839…
06-01 07:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0x153422…
06-01 07:17:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x1b3368…
06-01 07:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	48	11¢	$5	0x6ae9ed…
06-01 07:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	23	12¢	$3	0xba6e75…
06-01 07:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x30cfd8…
06-01 07:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	167	2¢	$3	0xd97539…
06-01 06:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0x129ee8…
06-01 06:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x6a48d0…
06-01 06:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x942cb8…
06-01 06:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0xa41160…
06-01 06:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x9208f4…
06-01 06:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x80f0a7…
06-01 06:23:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0xba0ff2…
06-01 05:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x49c042…
06-01 05:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xbde5c6…
06-01 04:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0xd90154…
06-01 04:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xf1ba8c…
06-01 04:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x4ba115…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	247	$2.05M	40,873	06-10 03:20
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	210	$314.0K	6,485	06-05 15:07
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	204	$1.02M	80,927	06-10 01:05
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	203	$509.3K	3,514	06-05 16:49
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	179	$126.6K	28,215	05-07 01:58
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	178	$671.9K	52,900	06-01 03:47
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	164	$979.6K	12,786	06-09 14:35
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	160	$139.2K	2,187	06-10 03:27