Second-Hand-Dissemination — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$1.96K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.4%

Resolved (30d)

204

Trades (30d)

972

6,221 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$11.2K

$48.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 08:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 48% -$1,099

Other

13% 68% +$375

Tech

9% 68% -$27

Politics

5% 33% -$18

Sports

0% 50% +$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 319 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	19	$785	490	490	+0	open	—	10-15 04:41
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	37	$684	443	443	+0	open	—	08-10 02:43
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 10:30 UTC	41	$580	401	401	+0	Down	+$175	07-23 10:35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	25	$526	355	355	+0	open	—	10-15 04:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 04:45 UTC	37	$510	1,000	100	+900	Up	-$406	10-15 04:48
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?	19	$493	309	309	+0	open	—	09-11 01:31
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 11:15 UTC	49	$489	329	329	+0	Down	+$149	07-23 11:19
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	35	$460	321	321	+0	Yes	+$51	06-25 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	14	$442	450	197	+253	Down	+$194	10-11 17:43
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	23	$438	284	284	+0	Yes	+$54	06-12 18:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:05 UTC	37	$433	1,110	0	+1,110	Down	-$433	10-15 05:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	23	$393	400	231	+169	Down	+$202	10-05 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 04:50 UTC	73	$385	1,100	0	+1,100	Up	-$385	10-15 04:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	32	$333	700	85	+615	Down	-$201	10-15 05:18
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	11	$306	190	190	+0	open	—	10-15 05:09
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	12	$278	170	170	+0	Yes	+$11	10-15 05:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	6	$271	230	158	+72	Up	+$110	09-11 01:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 10:15 UTC	25	$270	200	200	+0	Down	+$106	07-23 10:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 06:05 UTC	20	$264	240	171	+69	Down	+$96	08-10 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	26	$258	260	141	+119	Down	+$125	09-11 02:03
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	12	$257	110	260	-150	No	+$70	06-21 14:39
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	10	$256	168	168	+0	open	—	10-15 04:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:10 UTC	21	$246	800	0	+800	Down	-$246	10-15 05:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 01:00 UTC	20	$241	164	164	+0	Down	+$71	07-01 01:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	12	$238	170	170	+0	No	+$11	10-15 05:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$233	154	154	+0	open	—	10-15 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	17	$232	200	141	+59	Up	+$92	10-11 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 06:25 UTC	18	$232	160	160	+0	Up	+$65	07-01 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	12	$230	248	109	+140	Down	+$120	10-01 09:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	10	$229	150	150	+0	open	—	09-11 01:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 08:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x0ff0f3…
10-26 08:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x0d0396…
10-26 08:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x56497f…
10-26 08:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0xfffed7…
10-26 08:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1b8733…
10-26 08:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5532f3…
10-26 08:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x1eec58…
10-26 08:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x01fd99…
10-26 08:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf6f600…
10-26 08:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4c2eb7…
10-26 08:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x123288…
10-26 08:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xbc954f…
10-26 08:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xfcbf0a…
10-26 08:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xabc085…
10-26 08:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x39f9b6…
10-26 08:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x8ac63f…
10-26 08:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x5b892e…
10-26 08:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8cd6bb…
10-26 00:54:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x870fe8…
10-26 00:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xe77312…
10-26 00:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb59742…
10-26 00:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x840c38…
10-26 00:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xcb5784…
10-26 00:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xab39ea…
10-26 00:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x198109…
10-26 00:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc1927a…
10-26 00:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xab58ae…
10-26 00:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xcf47b5…
10-26 00:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5497c9…
10-26 00:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa87790…
10-26 00:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x62cc34…
10-26 00:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf7f7d4…
10-26 00:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x741500…
10-26 00:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x556bfe…
10-26 00:00:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x199701…
10-25 23:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7004fe…
10-25 23:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x888d0d…
10-25 23:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x6a7c7e…
10-25 23:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xc4c365…
10-25 23:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xefefff…
10-25 23:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd5455f…
10-25 23:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x58256e…
10-25 23:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfe1ffc…
10-25 23:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd26508…
10-25 23:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb5a707…
10-15 05:22:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x5f00c5…
10-15 05:21:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xff1cae…
10-15 05:21:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x565630…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xfae926…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xfa76cf…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0xded842…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xdc22db…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x993d07…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x7bd0ea…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x1c34b7…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x100cc6…
10-15 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x07c732…
10-15 05:20:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x0a68c0…
10-15 05:18:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xd9ab22…
10-15 05:18:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x663af6…
10-15 05:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	43	77¢	$33	0xe3ee13…
10-15 05:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0xa61a7e…
10-15 05:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x64d497…
10-15 05:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x5f24fb…
10-15 05:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x38c63a…
10-15 05:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x3370ef…
10-15 05:15:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x575bc7…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf46a10…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xf43e4c…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xcc9bdb…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xc9de48…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8cdcc9…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x7afc1a…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x7840f8…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x4ee666…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x3d462f…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2ee82c…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x20c64d…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x1496c4…
10-15 05:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x06370b…
10-15 05:14:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x23baca…
10-15 05:14:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	49	40¢	$20	0xba11ee…
10-15 05:14:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x07208d…
10-15 05:14:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xa75dc0…
10-15 05:14:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	48	40¢	$19	0x9dab58…
10-15 05:14:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	48	40¢	$19	0x81421a…
10-15 05:14:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x0a3c9f…
10-15 05:14:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x89f6af…
10-15 05:14:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x757f75…
10-15 05:12:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x2a8da4…
10-15 05:11:53	Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0xca4f5b…
10-15 05:11:46	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?	No	SELL	84	39¢	$33	0xae8f40…
10-15 05:11:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	73¢	$125	0x4170cf…
10-15 05:11:26	Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic + OpenAI	SELL	173	26¢	$45	0x7a7096…
10-15 05:10:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x0e9cca…
10-15 05:10:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x4dbdf8…
10-15 05:10:29	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xd6e38c…
10-15 05:10:23	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	21¢	$13	0x4dd1d9…
10-15 05:10:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xee5997…
10-15 05:10:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xdae448…