Honorable-Tree — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$31

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

95.3%

Resolved

151

Trades

206

lifetime

Volume

$6.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-27 16:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

45% 87% +$9

Other

41% 100% +$15

Crypto

11% 100% +$6

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+7	$6	50¢	$4	-$2	10-27 14:17
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+7	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	10-27 16:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	5	$425	225	225	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:51
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	3	$394	283	123	+160	No	+$10	09-30 18:28
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$391	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 16:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$369	186	186	+0	No	+$1	09-07 19:05
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$322	193	193	+0	No	+$2	10-05 11:49
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$271	335	0	+335	Yes	-$17	10-25 23:18
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$184	145	145	+0	open	—	10-21 03:18
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$179	180	0	+180	No	+$1	09-14 15:05
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	1	$179	179	0	+179	No	+$0	08-06 12:44
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	1	$178	179	0	+179	Yes	+$0	08-05 01:05
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$177	178	0	+178	No	+$1	06-07 19:15
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$175	178	0	+178	Yes	+$2	09-10 14:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$174	175	0	+175	No	+$0	08-14 13:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$172	176	0	+176	No	+$4	08-11 10:27
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$171	172	0	+172	No	+$1	08-10 20:18
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$169	170	0	+170	Yes	+$1	09-17 21:05
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	1	$165	166	0	+166	No	+$1	05-30 09:07
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$154	156	0	+156	No	+$2	08-18 07:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$149	150	0	+150	No	+$0	08-22 06:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	1	$146	153	0	+153	No	+$7	05-18 18:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	4	$121	82	40	+42	No	+$0	10-01 03:06
will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	1	$111	112	0	+112	No	+$0	07-31 07:42
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	2	$107	54	54	+0	No	+$0	08-31 19:17
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	4	$106	49	59	-10	Yes	+$0	10-10 23:42
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	6	$103	167	167	+0	open	—	10-14 03:37
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$77	38	38	+0	No	+$0	09-30 17:25
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$72	73	0	+73	Yes	+$1	05-05 14:11
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$67	73	0	+73	Yes	+$5	05-15 20:21
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$67	67	0	+67	Yes	+$0	05-12 14:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$65	67	0	+67	No	+$2	05-09 15:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 16:14:21	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xca50d3…
10-27 14:17:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0x5d56f7…
10-25 23:18:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	214	91¢	$196	0xf61be5…
10-21 03:18:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	145	64¢	$93	0x463412…
10-21 03:18:12	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$18	0x37924e…
10-21 03:17:47	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x7354fa…
10-20 22:16:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x72b648…
10-17 19:59:03	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x99f37a…
10-16 12:21:39	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$19	0x85d7c9…
10-15 02:32:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	80	84¢	$67	0x864a21…
10-14 04:05:29	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	145	63¢	$91	0x095e98…
10-14 03:37:14	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	31¢	$52	0x712f68…
10-14 01:22:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc07428…
10-12 05:19:57	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0x804564…
10-11 21:34:17	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x3a6326…
10-11 21:23:32	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xae077e…
10-11 21:21:02	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xb61c0b…
10-11 20:53:08	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	31¢	$40	0x31f7cb…
10-10 23:42:33	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xdcd90f…
10-10 22:42:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4dd3e4…
10-10 10:30:09	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2de942…
10-09 00:09:00	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$6	0x0b39e5…
10-08 21:52:05	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0xbabcf4…
10-05 11:49:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	193	84¢	$162	0xf97a99…
10-05 03:25:58	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	193	83¢	$160	0xb41c3b…
10-04 21:33:29	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xf47cb0…
10-04 16:41:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x572440…
10-02 03:32:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x0b267c…
10-01 03:06:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x80143a…
09-30 19:08:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x05838a…
09-30 18:28:14	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$159	0xd07775…
09-30 17:25:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xf4c823…
09-30 12:04:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$122	0x2088de…
09-30 06:45:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x722768…
09-30 06:33:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x4b8b5d…
09-29 06:38:39	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x00fce7…
09-29 06:36:23	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x02b173…
09-28 12:11:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x8ad7d2…
09-27 09:42:18	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x10c6f4…
09-25 12:35:09	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xec6833…
09-25 10:45:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	123	92¢	$113	0x84828d…
09-22 13:25:16	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x320336…
09-19 13:57:32	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x331ee5…
09-17 21:05:46	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	170	99¢	$169	0xdae773…
09-17 19:51:42	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xff493a…
09-14 15:05:49	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	180	100¢	$179	0x922138…
09-10 14:08:57	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	178	99¢	$175	0xe9140b…
09-10 01:37:18	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf4934f…
09-07 19:05:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	186	100¢	$185	0x237a2a…
09-05 06:22:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	186	99¢	$184	0xb5c690…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	86	100¢	$86	0x8dddf2…
08-31 19:17:21	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x7f148c…
08-31 18:13:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in August?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x32e588…
08-31 16:13:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in August?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xab96b3…
08-31 16:11:48	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x122a8b…
08-31 00:42:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x7e28fd…
08-27 00:55:40	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$53	0xaca59c…
08-26 00:50:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	138	91¢	$127	0xa65d8e…
08-25 19:59:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	85	91¢	$78	0x82870b…
08-25 19:59:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	91¢	$49	0x1fb33f…
08-24 04:59:06	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5963ee…
08-23 22:22:00	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x10303c…
08-22 06:08:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$149	0x4850c6…
08-22 05:52:51	Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbb858c…
08-19 00:38:43	will nvda dip to 176 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95be3a…
08-18 07:05:43	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	156	99¢	$154	0xa269c2…
08-17 09:33:04	will wti dip to 55 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x292363…
08-17 08:58:04	will xauusd dip to 3600 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x599499…
08-16 09:35:42	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe59da8…
08-15 08:11:51	will spy dip to 680 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x9bd0fe…
08-14 13:42:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	175	100¢	$174	0xfd5418…
08-11 18:49:21	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xe2ddc9…
08-11 10:27:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	176	98¢	$172	0xec355d…
08-10 20:18:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	172	100¢	$171	0x2ca56b…
08-10 03:04:27	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x259df9…
08-06 12:44:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0x2cf55a…
08-05 01:05:30	Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	179	100¢	$178	0xc6ac80…
07-31 12:22:47	will meta dip to 480 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x96f875…
07-31 07:42:59	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0x1ce253…
07-30 03:05:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x221f76…
07-27 18:52:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xbb3a96…
07-26 06:01:58	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc4e6ed…
07-25 22:46:37	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xd2d6b9…
07-24 06:38:21	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x61e818…
07-22 01:32:31	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xbf7d5e…
07-21 17:15:39	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5c47ae…
07-21 12:49:52	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in July?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x67ff75…
07-17 13:54:03	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x04c1dc…
07-17 07:40:31	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf2ba3c…
07-17 04:37:12	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc120a0…
07-03 21:16:20	will ethereum dip to 700 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5fc430…
06-28 11:54:01	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x150374…
06-26 20:59:46	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x397850…
06-07 19:15:37	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	178	100¢	$177	0x0f6490…
05-30 09:07:21	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	166	99¢	$165	0xfc57b0…
05-29 09:44:07	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xd774c5…
05-29 02:48:05	Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x04eec0…
05-28 22:57:47	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x5a83ad…
05-24 20:39:58	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x84e83d…
05-20 10:15:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xaffa27…