Free-Hacksaw-Dependency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$361

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

62.2%

Resolved

4,065

Trades

6,588

lifetime

Volume

$28.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-27 07:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 153 days

Categories

Other

98% 66% +$361

Politics

2% 75% +$2

Tech

0% 0% -$2

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 477 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	+115	$17	11¢	$13	-$4	10-26 05:21
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+20	$6	31¢	$6	$0	10-26 18:36
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+50	$6	11¢	$6	$0	10-27 07:51
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+28	$6	17¢	$5	-$1	10-24 18:35
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	+40	$6	6¢	$2	-$3	10-23 17:02
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+10	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-25 03:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	268	$3.6K	5,457	5,407	+50	Yes	-$4	10-26 16:23
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	265	$2.0K	4,975	4,975	+0	No	+$24	10-26 22:20
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	112	$475	2,004	2,004	+0	No	+$5	10-26 11:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	19	$191	450	450	+0	open	—	10-27 00:39
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7?	2	$171	86	86	+0	No	+$2	05-07 09:28
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	13	$157	395	395	+0	open	—	10-27 01:16
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	12	$154	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 08:11
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	14	$114	315	315	+0	open	—	10-27 06:40
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	19	$114	300	300	+0	open	—	10-26 13:56
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	17	$101	276	276	+0	open	—	10-25 20:23
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 1?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-01 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-09 19:07
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8?	2	$94	50	50	+0	No	-$4	05-08 02:02
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 8?	1	$83	84	0	+84	No	+$1	05-08 02:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?	2	$81	50	42	+8	No	+$1	05-09 19:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4?	2	$79	41	41	+0	No	-$2	05-04 06:41
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$75	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 01:32
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 6?	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	05-05 07:03
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	6	$71	120	120	+0	open	—	10-26 04:09
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 15°C or below on May 9?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	05-08 07:03
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	8	$55	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 00:43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$1	05-01 15:25
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-11 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 5?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-05 07:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 10?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-09 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-03 08:14
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 11?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 12?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-11 06:42
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	7	$49	126	126	+0	open	—	10-26 13:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:55:09	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x69fab2…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xb6b86f…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x47e29d…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x317e51…
10-27 08:30:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x73b82e…
10-27 08:22:36	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xd89afd…
10-27 07:51:00	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x9f2f48…
10-27 07:21:53	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xd14054…
10-27 06:40:15	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	17¢	$7	0x042587…
10-27 06:28:39	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 27?	No	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x0d1974…
10-27 06:07:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	17¢	$0	0x115f96…
10-27 06:07:02	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xe90f29…
10-27 05:36:17	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x20710d…
10-27 05:08:20	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x2075f9…
10-27 05:04:44	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xfd85a9…
10-27 05:04:44	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$1	0xef0288…
10-27 05:04:44	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xc6a91f…
10-27 04:46:06	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0x3b3d33…
10-27 04:38:27	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x489ce7…
10-27 04:38:27	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x0dc219…
10-27 03:30:35	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	160	9¢	$14	0x825bae…
10-27 03:29:42	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x95960c…
10-27 03:29:36	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x1e145a…
10-27 03:12:38	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	80	12¢	$10	0x6208f2…
10-27 03:12:33	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	80	16¢	$12	0x253485…
10-27 03:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x7c6e1f…
10-27 02:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x900b32…
10-27 02:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	16	22¢	$3	0x3c78d1…
10-27 02:47:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	17¢	$7	0xf8c0a7…
10-27 02:47:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x300067…
10-27 02:42:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0x8fa674…
10-27 02:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	45	19¢	$9	0x24b839…
10-27 02:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0xee74a8…
10-27 02:11:03	Will Fred Warner win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0xb05042…
10-27 02:05:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x409409…
10-27 01:53:51	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x5cf6cd…
10-27 01:53:48	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x8a8e70…
10-27 01:50:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	60	25¢	$15	0x71826e…
10-27 01:49:35	Will CeeDee Lamb finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	Yes	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0xe21de9…
10-27 01:46:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xab2dea…
10-27 01:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xbed6f9…
10-27 01:44:57	Will Jackson Chourio win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xa87341…
10-27 01:40:18	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x66e0a0…
10-27 01:40:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0xf4ef1f…
10-27 01:36:44	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfdc7fd…
10-27 01:36:44	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0xd68657…
10-27 01:36:44	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x1f862c…
10-27 01:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x9c3705…
10-27 01:32:27	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x4faca5…
10-27 01:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0xef47c9…
10-27 01:32:08	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xfcfdd4…
10-27 01:16:21	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	217	18¢	$39	0xbc8572…
10-27 01:16:21	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x23a8d6…
10-27 01:16:21	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	71	18¢	$13	0x11aa6b…
10-27 01:15:00	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xd01d31…
10-27 00:54:15	Will Jackson Chourio win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	19	17¢	$3	0x44481b…
10-27 00:43:08	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	74	28¢	$21	0x635d4a…
10-27 00:40:05	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0x268314…
10-27 00:39:29	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xd5b509…
10-27 00:39:08	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x7bc127…
10-27 00:38:23	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x6eb58d…
10-27 00:26:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0xb95ec3…
10-27 00:26:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x9d5f6c…
10-27 00:14:00	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x743a6a…
10-27 00:08:48	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	45	18¢	$8	0xa9f33e…
10-27 00:08:45	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$9	0x69ec7d…
10-27 00:08:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x6f0387…
10-27 00:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xaecc76…
10-27 00:01:23	Will Jackson Chourio win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x2cdb22…
10-26 23:56:57	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x8844e6…
10-26 23:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x6c4d66…
10-26 23:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x869c52…
10-26 23:52:17	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x22e957…
10-26 23:45:12	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xb6e027…
10-26 23:37:05	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x40ed22…
10-26 23:37:05	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x19bae0…
10-26 23:37:03	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0x926bb4…
10-26 23:10:15	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xf02292…
10-26 22:45:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x336c09…
10-26 22:20:38	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	144	35¢	$51	0x07c6c2…
10-26 22:20:36	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0xad9678…
10-26 22:20:36	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0x83a3cb…
10-26 22:11:39	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x0ab623…
10-26 21:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x247f97…
10-26 21:18:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xedd833…
10-26 21:17:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x3ce9e2…
10-26 21:16:03	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x78e4dc…
10-26 21:16:00	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x4f3463…
10-26 21:02:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0xe982fd…
10-26 20:46:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x7d03ec…
10-26 20:46:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x25074a…
10-26 20:46:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x39f3ac…
10-26 20:35:05	LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Secret Whales	SELL	43	15¢	$7	0xc7fc40…
10-26 20:34:05	LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Secret Whales	BUY	43	15¢	$7	0x938f21…
10-26 20:31:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x4e140c…
10-26 19:59:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x488bb9…
10-26 19:40:17	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x7025da…
10-26 19:30:12	Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0x8c8baf…
10-26 19:30:12	Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x7502bd…
10-26 19:30:11	Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x127b81…