Free-Hacksaw-Dependency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$354

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

4,069

Trades

6,651

lifetime

Volume

$28.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-27 16:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 153 days

Categories

Other

98% 65% +$354

Politics

2% 75% +$2

Tech

0% 0% -$2

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 477 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	+115	$17	12¢	$14	-$3	10-26 05:21
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+28	$6	16¢	$5	-$1	10-24 18:35
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+10	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-25 03:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	268	$3.6K	5,457	5,407	+50	Yes	-$4	10-26 16:23
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	265	$2.0K	4,975	4,975	+0	No	+$24	10-26 22:20
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	112	$475	2,004	2,004	+0	No	+$5	10-26 11:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	27	$286	650	650	+0	open	—	10-27 22:12
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7?	2	$171	86	86	+0	No	+$2	05-07 09:28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	9	$170	306	306	+0	No	$0	10-27 15:03
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	13	$157	395	395	+0	open	—	10-27 01:16
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	12	$154	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 08:11
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	14	$114	315	315	+0	open	—	10-27 06:40
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	19	$114	300	300	+0	open	—	10-26 13:56
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	17	$101	276	276	+0	open	—	10-25 20:23
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 1?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-01 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-09 19:07
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8?	2	$94	50	50	+0	No	-$4	05-08 02:02
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 8?	1	$83	84	0	+84	No	+$1	05-08 02:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?	2	$81	50	42	+8	No	+$1	05-09 19:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4?	2	$79	41	41	+0	No	-$2	05-04 06:41
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$75	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 01:32
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 6?	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	05-05 07:03
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	6	$71	120	120	+0	open	—	10-26 04:09
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 15°C or below on May 9?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	05-08 07:03
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	8	$55	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 00:43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$1	05-01 15:25
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-11 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 5?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-05 07:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 10?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-09 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-03 08:14
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 11?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 12?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-11 06:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:12:47	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x2b81ec…
10-27 16:40:27	Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027?	No	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x46e0fd…
10-27 15:03:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	28¢	$35	0xc557eb…
10-27 15:03:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	28¢	$50	0xacf84d…
10-27 14:56:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x630703…
10-27 14:52:11	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xbe71a8…
10-27 14:50:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xd80893…
10-27 14:50:32	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x92ec1f…
10-27 14:49:27	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xf1cac3…
10-27 14:48:14	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xa0812c…
10-27 14:47:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xbc62a5…
10-27 14:47:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0xf96855…
10-27 14:46:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$15	0xde40e3…
10-27 14:33:56	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x8cf7bb…
10-27 14:33:14	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	22¢	$10	0xb7f80b…
10-27 14:33:14	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x4adb5b…
10-27 14:33:12	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xaad1a9…
10-27 14:12:05	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xb2a2ab…
10-27 14:10:56	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xe6cfc1…
10-27 14:10:56	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xa9f975…
10-27 14:10:08	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xa0f77f…
10-27 13:59:20	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x135b3c…
10-27 13:52:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	17	35¢	$6	0xd5c3a0…
10-27 13:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x83dd73…
10-27 13:50:12	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xa407d1…
10-27 13:41:54	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$13	0xe0482c…
10-27 13:36:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x6a8145…
10-27 13:26:21	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x22db1b…
10-27 13:25:21	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x2aa7e8…
10-27 13:18:51	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xa1beba…
10-27 13:12:08	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xd710da…
10-27 13:07:56	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x5e4bef…
10-27 13:03:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x92d521…
10-27 12:57:26	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	40	6¢	$3	0xc2e002…
10-27 12:29:11	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xf38bc2…
10-27 12:28:36	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xc5f05f…
10-27 12:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x286f25…
10-27 12:17:30	Will Roger Cristóbal Gronerth Pinedo win the next Maynas mayoral elections?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xe74deb…
10-27 12:06:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0xf8d2c5…
10-27 12:06:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9346cb…
10-27 10:53:33	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x6f6771…
10-27 10:47:00	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xd3e31f…
10-27 10:36:21	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x969eaa…
10-27 10:36:21	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x750231…
10-27 10:19:33	Will Chronicle play for Team Vitality in 2027?	No	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xfb90bc…
10-27 09:57:51	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x64aa74…
10-27 09:53:00	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x9d8798…
10-27 09:50:26	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x10e5b4…
10-27 09:48:48	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x17c438…
10-27 09:38:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xe41766…
10-27 09:38:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x07331e…
10-27 09:34:47	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xe1d1f9…
10-27 09:33:41	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0xe20136…
10-27 09:33:39	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$4	0xcc5413…
10-27 09:26:14	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x8ed78e…
10-27 09:24:14	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x0e6251…
10-27 09:17:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xe8ea06…
10-27 09:09:51	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xf3cfa5…
10-27 08:55:09	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x69fab2…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xb6b86f…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x47e29d…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x317e51…
10-27 08:30:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x73b82e…
10-27 08:22:36	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xd89afd…
10-27 07:51:00	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x9f2f48…
10-27 07:21:53	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xd14054…
10-27 06:40:15	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	17¢	$7	0x042587…
10-27 06:28:39	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 27?	No	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x0d1974…
10-27 06:07:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	17¢	$0	0x115f96…
10-27 06:07:02	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xe90f29…
10-27 05:36:17	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x20710d…
10-27 05:08:20	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x2075f9…
10-27 05:04:44	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xfd85a9…
10-27 05:04:44	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$1	0xef0288…
10-27 05:04:44	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xc6a91f…
10-27 04:46:06	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0x3b3d33…
10-27 04:38:27	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x489ce7…
10-27 04:38:27	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x0dc219…
10-27 03:30:35	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	160	9¢	$14	0x825bae…
10-27 03:29:42	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x95960c…
10-27 03:29:36	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x1e145a…
10-27 03:12:38	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	80	12¢	$10	0x6208f2…
10-27 03:12:33	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	80	16¢	$12	0x253485…
10-27 03:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x7c6e1f…
10-27 02:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x900b32…
10-27 02:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	16	22¢	$3	0x3c78d1…
10-27 02:47:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	17¢	$7	0xf8c0a7…
10-27 02:47:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x300067…
10-27 02:42:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0x8fa674…
10-27 02:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	45	19¢	$9	0x24b839…
10-27 02:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0xee74a8…
10-27 02:11:03	Will Fred Warner win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0xb05042…
10-27 02:05:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x409409…
10-27 01:53:51	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x5cf6cd…
10-27 01:53:48	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x8a8e70…
10-27 01:50:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	60	25¢	$15	0x71826e…
10-27 01:49:35	Will CeeDee Lamb finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	Yes	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0xe21de9…
10-27 01:46:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xab2dea…
10-27 01:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xbed6f9…
10-27 01:44:57	Will Jackson Chourio win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xa87341…