Free-Hacksaw-Dependency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$318

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

62.1%

Resolved

4,114

Trades

6,756

lifetime

Volume

$29.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 11-06 03:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 162 days

Categories

Other

96% 65% +$312

Politics

3% 75% +$8

Tech

0% 29% -$2

Sports

0% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 477 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in November 2026?	Yes	+20	$12	48¢	$10	-$2	11-06 02:51
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	+20	$4	11¢	$2	-$1	11-06 02:46
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	No	+5	$2	32¢	$2	+$0	11-06 03:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	268	$3.6K	5,457	5,407	+50	Yes	-$4	10-26 16:23
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	265	$2.0K	4,975	4,975	+0	No	+$24	10-26 22:20
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	112	$475	2,004	2,004	+0	No	+$5	10-26 11:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	27	$286	650	650	+0	open	—	10-27 22:12
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	7	$242	400	400	+0	open	—	10-28 12:00
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7?	2	$171	86	86	+0	No	+$2	05-07 09:28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	9	$170	306	306	+0	No	$0	10-27 15:03
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	13	$157	395	395	+0	open	—	10-27 01:16
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	12	$154	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 08:11
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	14	$114	315	315	+0	No	+$0	10-27 06:40
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	19	$114	300	300	+0	Yes	+$2	10-26 13:56
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	17	$101	276	276	+0	Yes	+$5	10-25 20:23
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 1?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-01 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-09 19:07
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8?	2	$94	50	50	+0	No	-$4	05-08 02:02
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	8	$86	85	85	-0	Yes	-$4	11-04 02:07
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 8?	1	$83	84	0	+84	No	+$1	05-08 02:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?	2	$81	50	42	+8	No	+$1	05-09 19:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4?	2	$79	41	41	+0	No	-$2	05-04 06:41
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$75	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 01:32
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 6?	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	05-05 07:03
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	6	$71	120	120	+0	Yes	+$1	10-26 04:09
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 15°C or below on May 9?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	05-08 07:03
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	8	$55	100	100	+0	No	+$1	10-27 00:43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$1	05-01 15:25
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-11 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 5?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-05 07:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 10?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-09 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-03 08:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 03:31:15	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	No	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x6f0108…
11-06 02:51:10	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x87b727…
11-06 02:46:39	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x8ba86f…
11-06 02:45:25	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x5b3b03…
11-06 02:25:49	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x2c6fb9…
11-06 01:45:15	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xd3574e…
11-06 01:37:30	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xd2f025…
11-06 01:37:15	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?	No	BUY	0	57¢	$0	0x80ffa5…
11-06 01:29:52	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x0ca698…
11-05 21:12:03	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x8e1cb6…
11-05 20:01:28	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 9 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xef489e…
11-05 07:17:49	Will StubHub (STUB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x8dbf83…
11-05 06:57:36	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 9 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x661c7c…
11-04 18:28:24	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x2f0004…
11-04 07:37:28	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xaf19eb…
11-04 07:37:00	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xc67c76…
11-04 07:33:49	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xf7ecdf…
11-04 05:02:13	Will StubHub (STUB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x3a426b…
11-04 03:52:09	stub quarterly earnings gaap eps 11 10 2026 0pt10	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x3397a4…
11-04 03:33:19	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x06da86…
11-04 03:31:34	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x52c763…
11-04 03:02:21	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xcd60c2…
11-04 03:02:21	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x525b69…
11-04 03:02:18	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x9394fe…
11-04 02:46:51	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xe61d4a…
11-04 02:46:22	Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x3a8952…
11-04 02:37:51	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xa5b3bf…
11-04 02:37:22	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x010c38…
11-04 02:33:54	Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?	Yes	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0x29184a…
11-04 02:33:07	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xbf3c30…
11-04 02:32:37	Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xa5c43d…
11-04 02:13:18	Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xb9cd4f…
11-04 02:07:48	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0x24a20f…
11-04 02:06:52	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xd570a5…
11-04 02:03:49	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x4578a4…
11-04 01:46:46	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	40	13¢	$5	0xf36aed…
11-04 01:46:46	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xf36aed…
11-04 01:40:31	Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 10% by December 31?	No	SELL	19	57¢	$11	0xfe4824…
11-04 01:38:24	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x6aa4a1…
11-04 01:38:01	newsoms democratic nomination odds dip to 10 by december 31	No	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0xf105d9…
11-04 01:35:21	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	34	18¢	$6	0x587798…
11-04 01:34:49	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x6409cc…
11-03 06:48:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	50	17¢	$9	0x698474…
11-03 06:46:49	Will US gas hit $4.25 (High) in November?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x509d67…
11-03 06:41:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0xaba2f5…
11-03 06:41:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x00df7a…
11-03 06:27:43	Will US gas hit $4.25 (High) in November?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xbc5706…
11-03 03:04:51	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xb4f2fd…
11-03 03:03:36	Will Republicans win the Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xbc9fcf…
11-03 03:02:10	Will Republicans win the Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x2a46fa…
11-03 02:52:12	Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x749d01…
11-03 02:32:55	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x032517…
11-03 02:28:13	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9f09e0…
11-03 02:04:18	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xdad9d0…
11-03 02:03:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x5a8476…
11-03 01:54:21	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xe636bc…
11-03 01:44:22	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x231181…
11-03 01:41:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0xbce72c…
10-29 08:46:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x9f5ed8…
10-29 08:05:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xc55293…
10-28 13:06:49	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$5	0xed9ee5…
10-28 13:05:29	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	69	12¢	$8	0xf3f2ef…
10-28 13:05:29	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x824169…
10-28 13:05:28	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	45	27¢	$12	0xf24a19…
10-28 13:05:28	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x761fad…
10-28 13:01:49	Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xf389cb…
10-28 13:01:49	Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xebe1d1…
10-28 13:01:49	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $50M and $75M by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xe83246…
10-28 13:01:49	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xc64030…
10-28 13:01:49	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xc0d3ef…
10-28 13:01:49	Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x87f4f2…
10-28 13:01:49	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x820a16…
10-28 13:01:49	Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x63ebb2…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xfc3d0f…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xf7266c…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xb3c628…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xb011da…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-05 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xa07584…
10-28 13:01:47	Will With Tapes and Toasts in the Car win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x9d5931…
10-28 13:01:47	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	28	16¢	$5	0x5a52d3…
10-28 13:01:47	Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027?	No	SELL	27	8¢	$2	0x544bae…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-14 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x4a4d86…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xfd8104…
10-28 13:01:46	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xe5ea5e…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xc4f37c…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xbbb6df…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x35eae4…
10-28 13:01:46	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x227dd3…
10-28 13:01:46	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0x221ae2…
10-28 13:01:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0x8d3f5f…
10-28 13:01:44	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	46	12¢	$5	0x757565…
10-28 12:49:13	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x64a888…
10-28 12:48:56	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0xf12963…
10-28 12:22:34	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xacb9c6…
10-28 12:00:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	111	32¢	$36	0xc8e450…
10-28 12:00:07	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	59	32¢	$19	0x2e2f4c…
10-28 11:47:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0x41909e…
10-28 11:45:53	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x2124a8…
10-28 11:13:37	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	164	28¢	$45	0x67fa75…
10-28 11:13:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0xf38c24…