Free-Hacksaw-Dependency — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$55

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

54.2%

Resolved (90d)

1,590

Trades (90d)

3,200

6,696 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$16.2K

$28.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-29 08:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Other

97% 65% +$318

Politics

3% 86% +$8

Tech

0% 29% -$2

Sports

0% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 477 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes		+10	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	10-25 03:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	268	$3.6K	5,457	5,407	+50	Yes	-$4	10-26 16:23
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	265	$2.0K	4,975	4,975	+0	No	+$24	10-26 22:20
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	112	$475	2,004	2,004	+0	No	+$5	10-26 11:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	27	$286	650	650	+0	open	—	10-27 22:12
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	7	$242	400	400	+0	open	—	10-28 12:00
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7?	2	$171	86	86	+0	No	+$2	05-07 09:28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	9	$170	306	306	+0	No	$0	10-27 15:03
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	13	$157	395	395	+0	open	—	10-27 01:16
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	12	$154	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 08:11
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	14	$114	315	315	+0	No	+$0	10-27 06:40
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	19	$114	300	300	+0	Yes	+$2	10-26 13:56
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	17	$101	276	276	+0	Yes	+$5	10-25 20:23
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 1?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-01 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-09 19:07
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8?	2	$94	50	50	+0	No	-$4	05-08 02:02
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 8?	1	$83	84	0	+84	No	+$1	05-08 02:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?	2	$81	50	42	+8	No	+$1	05-09 19:10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4?	2	$79	41	41	+0	No	-$2	05-04 06:41
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$75	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 01:32
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 6?	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	05-05 07:03
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	6	$71	120	120	+0	Yes	+$1	10-26 04:09
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 15°C or below on May 9?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	05-08 07:03
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	8	$55	100	100	+0	No	+$1	10-27 00:43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$1	05-01 15:25
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-11 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 5?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-05 07:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 10?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-09 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 4?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-03 08:14
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 11?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-10 07:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 08:46:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x9f5ed8…
10-29 08:05:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xc55293…
10-28 13:06:49	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$5	0xed9ee5…
10-28 13:05:29	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	69	12¢	$8	0xf3f2ef…
10-28 13:05:29	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x824169…
10-28 13:05:28	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	45	27¢	$12	0xf24a19…
10-28 13:05:28	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x761fad…
10-28 13:01:49	Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xf389cb…
10-28 13:01:49	Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xebe1d1…
10-28 13:01:49	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $50M and $75M by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xe83246…
10-28 13:01:49	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xc64030…
10-28 13:01:49	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xc0d3ef…
10-28 13:01:49	Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x87f4f2…
10-28 13:01:49	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x820a16…
10-28 13:01:49	Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x63ebb2…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xfc3d0f…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xf7266c…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xb3c628…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xb011da…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-05 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xa07584…
10-28 13:01:47	Will With Tapes and Toasts in the Car win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x9d5931…
10-28 13:01:47	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	28	16¢	$5	0x5a52d3…
10-28 13:01:47	Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027?	No	SELL	27	8¢	$2	0x544bae…
10-28 13:01:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-14 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x4a4d86…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xfd8104…
10-28 13:01:46	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,600,000 and 4,800,000?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xe5ea5e…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xc4f37c…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xbbb6df…
10-28 13:01:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x35eae4…
10-28 13:01:46	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x227dd3…
10-28 13:01:46	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0x221ae2…
10-28 13:01:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0x8d3f5f…
10-28 13:01:44	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	46	12¢	$5	0x757565…
10-28 12:49:13	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x64a888…
10-28 12:48:56	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0xf12963…
10-28 12:22:34	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xacb9c6…
10-28 12:00:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	111	32¢	$36	0xc8e450…
10-28 12:00:07	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	59	32¢	$19	0x2e2f4c…
10-28 11:47:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0x41909e…
10-28 11:45:53	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x2124a8…
10-28 11:13:37	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	164	28¢	$45	0x67fa75…
10-28 11:13:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0xf38c24…
10-28 10:56:28	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$55	0x695100…
10-28 10:49:23	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x809a98…
10-28 09:10:52	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x1e9c28…
10-27 22:28:45	Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xf9456e…
10-27 22:12:47	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x2b81ec…
10-27 16:40:27	Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027?	No	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x46e0fd…
10-27 15:03:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	28¢	$35	0xc557eb…
10-27 15:03:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	28¢	$50	0xacf84d…
10-27 14:56:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x630703…
10-27 14:52:11	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xbe71a8…
10-27 14:50:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xd80893…
10-27 14:50:32	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x92ec1f…
10-27 14:49:27	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xf1cac3…
10-27 14:48:14	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xa0812c…
10-27 14:47:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xbc62a5…
10-27 14:47:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0xf96855…
10-27 14:46:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$15	0xde40e3…
10-27 14:33:56	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x8cf7bb…
10-27 14:33:14	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	22¢	$10	0xb7f80b…
10-27 14:33:14	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x4adb5b…
10-27 14:33:12	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xaad1a9…
10-27 14:12:05	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xb2a2ab…
10-27 14:10:56	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xe6cfc1…
10-27 14:10:56	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xa9f975…
10-27 14:10:08	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xa0f77f…
10-27 13:59:20	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x135b3c…
10-27 13:52:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	17	35¢	$6	0xd5c3a0…
10-27 13:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x83dd73…
10-27 13:50:12	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xa407d1…
10-27 13:41:54	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$13	0xe0482c…
10-27 13:36:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0x6a8145…
10-27 13:26:21	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x22db1b…
10-27 13:25:21	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x2aa7e8…
10-27 13:18:51	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xa1beba…
10-27 13:12:08	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xd710da…
10-27 13:07:56	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x5e4bef…
10-27 13:03:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x92d521…
10-27 12:57:26	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	40	6¢	$3	0xc2e002…
10-27 12:29:11	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xf38bc2…
10-27 12:28:36	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xc5f05f…
10-27 12:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x286f25…
10-27 12:17:30	Will Roger Cristóbal Gronerth Pinedo win the next Maynas mayoral elections?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xe74deb…
10-27 12:06:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0xf8d2c5…
10-27 12:06:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9346cb…
10-27 10:53:33	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x6f6771…
10-27 10:47:00	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xd3e31f…
10-27 10:36:21	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x969eaa…
10-27 10:36:21	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x750231…
10-27 10:19:33	Will Chronicle play for Team Vitality in 2027?	No	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xfb90bc…
10-27 09:57:51	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x64aa74…
10-27 09:53:00	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x9d8798…
10-27 09:50:26	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x10e5b4…
10-27 09:48:48	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x17c438…
10-27 09:38:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xe41766…
10-27 09:38:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x07331e…
10-27 09:34:47	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xe1d1f9…
10-27 09:33:41	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0xe20136…
10-27 09:33:39	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$4	0xcc5413…