Lively-Pith — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$279

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

49.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$18.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$285

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-11

last 10-08 06:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

81% 68% +$457

Politics

17% 20% -$194

Crypto

2% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	97¢	$3	+$0	09-30 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$1.7K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	-$180	04-19 07:50
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	7	$799	1,171	1,171	+0	No	+$2	05-11 09:07
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	2	$783	430	430	+0	open	—	06-02 06:10
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	2	$782	414	414	+0	No	-$4	05-31 06:04
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	3	$776	411	411	+0	No	+$4	06-07 07:07
will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	2	$774	425	425	+0	No	+$0	06-06 08:02
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	2	$753	382	382	+0	No	-$1	05-06 07:52
will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	3	$748	409	409	+0	No	-$6	06-08 06:57
will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391	2	$744	396	396	+0	open	—	08-13 09:30
kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	2	$741	385	385	+0	No	+$0	08-13 07:05
lol fxw7 png1 2026 06 07 game2 both teams slay baron	2	$723	391	391	+0	No	+$20	06-08 02:53
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	2	$718	385	385	+0	No	-$13	06-04 05:38
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?	2	$699	386	386	+0	No	-$4	06-03 08:14
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	2	$688	353	353	+0	No	-$1	05-07 05:46
will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	2	$684	369	369	+0	No	+$7	06-30 05:43
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	2	$660	336	336	+0	No	+$0	05-05 05:14
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	1	$418	455	0	+455	Yes	-$418	06-02 06:35
Spread: Poland (-2.5)	1	$389	419	0	+419	Ukraine	+$30	05-31 06:07
dota2 z10 sb5 2026 06 08 game2 any player rampage	1	$383	403	0	+403	No	+$20	06-08 07:00
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5)	1	$378	388	0	+388	Al Ahli Saudi Club	+$10	05-11 11:41
Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)	1	$377	389	0	+389	Matsumoto Yamaga FC	-$377	05-06 08:29
Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5)	1	$368	372	0	+372	Aston Villa FC	+$4	05-10 08:04
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	1	$364	374	0	+374	RB Leipzig	+$10	05-09 07:38
Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)	1	$362	378	0	+378	Chongqing Tonglianglong FC	+$16	05-05 06:31
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)	1	$359	395	0	+395	Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa	+$36	05-30 06:28
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5)	1	$350	364	0	+364	National Bank of Egypt Club	+$14	05-07 06:13
Spread: Albania (-2.5)	1	$348	366	0	+366	Israel	+$18	06-03 08:16
lol koia ucam1 2026 06 04 game1 both teams slay baron	1	$342	376	0	+376	No	+$34	06-04 05:41
wta waltert tomljan 2026 03 17	1	$270	370	0	+370	Ajla Tomljanovic	+$100	03-17 06:44
wttmen an lebrun 2026 03 12	1	$227	320	0	+320	Lebrun	+$93	03-12 11:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 06:49:46	Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x85146e…
09-30 02:49:56	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xfc9fcc…
08-13 09:30:36	will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391	No	SELL	396	94¢	$372	0xace3c6…
08-13 07:12:54	will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391	No	BUY	396	94¢	$371	0xa80b7b…
08-13 07:05:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	SELL	385	96¢	$371	0x5ec9c5…
08-13 06:13:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	385	96¢	$370	0x790cb5…
06-30 05:43:14	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	No	SELL	369	94¢	$346	0x2a1e71…
06-30 02:18:02	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	369	92¢	$338	0x262f08…
06-08 07:00:10	dota2 z10 sb5 2026 06 08 game2 any player rampage	No	BUY	403	95¢	$383	0x5e5db2…
06-08 06:57:21	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	No	SELL	409	91¢	$371	0x13e4e8…
06-08 04:37:34	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	No	BUY	384	92¢	$354	0xba0286…
06-08 04:37:31	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xbd6810…
06-08 02:53:54	lol fxw7 png1 2026 06 07 game2 both teams slay baron	No	SELL	391	95¢	$371	0x84f51b…
06-07 07:10:16	lol fxw7 png1 2026 06 07 game2 both teams slay baron	No	BUY	391	90¢	$352	0x2a1c05…
06-07 07:07:06	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	No	SELL	411	95¢	$390	0x9d0e77…
06-07 04:49:16	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x572e92…
06-07 04:48:28	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	No	BUY	396	94¢	$372	0xe370e2…
06-06 08:02:25	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	SELL	425	91¢	$387	0xfd2547…
06-06 06:24:36	will russia capture dovha balka by june 30	No	BUY	425	91¢	$387	0x0ef339…
06-04 05:41:37	lol koia ucam1 2026 06 04 game1 both teams slay baron	No	BUY	376	91¢	$342	0xa5d652…
06-04 05:38:33	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	385	91¢	$352	0x9d6476…
06-04 02:18:31	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	385	95¢	$365	0xfc7ba4…
06-03 08:16:08	Spread: Albania (-2.5)	Israel	BUY	366	95¢	$348	0xdd6ad7…
06-03 08:14:06	Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?	No	SELL	386	90¢	$347	0xf82e9a…
06-03 06:44:19	Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?	No	BUY	386	91¢	$351	0x3ae7dc…
06-02 06:35:16	Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	No	BUY	455	92¢	$418	0x4ea606…
06-02 06:10:55	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	430	91¢	$391	0x16ec1e…
06-02 04:40:10	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	430	91¢	$391	0x95dfc6…
05-31 06:07:02	Spread: Poland (-2.5)	Ukraine	BUY	419	93¢	$389	0xec7779…
05-31 06:04:43	Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	No	SELL	414	94¢	$389	0xba6c58…
05-31 03:13:54	Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	No	BUY	414	95¢	$393	0xa86689…
05-30 06:28:48	Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)	Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa	BUY	395	91¢	$359	0xcd9b04…
05-29 05:09:04	Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5)	US Catanzaro 1929	BUY	856	8¢	$68	0x85a3bb…
05-11 11:41:31	Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5)	Al Ahli Saudi Club	BUY	388	97¢	$378	0xdc3ca5…
05-11 09:07:34	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	799	6¢	$49	0x3212a9…
05-11 07:05:15	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	5¢	$3	0x62e577…
05-11 07:05:11	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	5¢	$22	0x9efbe7…
05-11 07:04:57	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	318	5¢	$17	0x5f8d76…
05-10 08:04:18	Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	372	99¢	$368	0xce1771…
05-10 07:15:46	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf70dc3…
05-10 07:15:33	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	372	94¢	$351	0x5ff4bd…
05-10 05:19:39	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	372	96¢	$357	0x17c4cc…
05-09 07:38:58	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	374	97¢	$364	0xcc26c6…
05-09 06:52:33	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	764	2¢	$11	0x95285f…
05-09 05:05:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	377	2¢	$6	0xe610d3…
05-09 05:05:17	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	287	2¢	$5	0xc87b7e…
05-07 06:13:18	Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5)	National Bank of Egypt Club	BUY	364	96¢	$350	0xd2a2f9…
05-07 05:46:39	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	353	97¢	$344	0xccd39e…
05-07 03:06:59	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	353	98¢	$345	0xab7c69…
05-06 08:29:34	Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)	FC Gifu	BUY	389	97¢	$377	0x6674f1…
05-06 07:52:14	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	382	98¢	$376	0x79b9c4…
05-06 06:28:44	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	382	99¢	$377	0x87135c…
05-05 06:31:46	Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)	Chongqing Tonglianglong FC	BUY	378	96¢	$362	0x49c161…
05-05 05:14:52	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	336	98¢	$330	0xf32844…
05-05 03:04:52	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	336	98¢	$330	0xd2f811…
04-19 07:50:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	6,000	13¢	$780	0xdddf16…
04-19 06:48:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6,000	16¢	$960	0xbf8e82…
03-17 06:44:47	wta waltert tomljan 2026 03 17	Ajla Tomljanovic	BUY	370	73¢	$270	0xd6a8d0…
03-16 05:47:53	atp brancac quilez 2026 03 16	Raul Brancaccio	BUY	270	60¢	$162	0xb5a3ba…
03-13 07:15:37	khl akb hcs 2026 03 12	HC Sochi	BUY	230	14¢	$32	0xf9a060…
03-13 07:15:37	khl akb hcs 2026 03 12	HC Sochi	BUY	250	14¢	$35	0x135840…
03-12 11:37:47	wttmen an lebrun 2026 03 12	Lebrun	BUY	320	71¢	$227	0x6710ab…
03-11 08:40:57	val bbb lyon 2026 03 11	LYON	BUY	230	84¢	$193	0x0d1687…